Not So Poor outlook for the lake this year

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Here is a real interesting read, and the lake powell pipeline, not sure where all this extra water will come from even though the average flow of the colorado has been reliable.....

The Colorado River is a Reliable Source of Water for Utah, Says the Utah Division of Water Resources
Global Banking & Finance Review
Falling storage levels at both lakes Powell and Mead have highlighted the potential effects of Read the full story
 
This sounds awfully like "Forget it, Jake. It's Chinatown". Claiming water rights because of reliable flow of the Colorado and a zero - 13 % chance that "the risk of a declared 1922 Compact shortage" will happen before 2050. This seems to be the sequel to "California Water Wars" in Utah this time all backed up by "the benchmark Bureau of Reclamation (BOR) 2012 Colorado River Basin Study."

It is pretty much "Upper Basin" (Colorado, Wyoming, New Mexico and Utah) vs "Lower Basin" (Nevada, Arizona and California), relying on a supposedly reliable source, the ColoradoRiver, being completely blind to any other option. I find that pretty scary that some already are trying to assure water-rights when no one but some blue-eyed predictions really know what the environmental impact will and might be on our water supplies.

To me there are just a few guarantees. Water will always flow downhill. And sand and dirt are reliable filters. The Colorado River always carrying enough water for everyone is not one of those guarantees.
 
last year was exceptional drought, I put the snowmobiles away and did not ride at all, this year is is great riding and lots of snow on the divide. it will not take long to fill the high reservoirs and then a lot of water can go down to Powell. I just hope that the snow from the east side of the siera mountains will impact the lower colorado river and california does not want all of the water. We are now no the 100%+ keep your fingers crossed that it will stay this way!!
 
Mother Nature has been generous this year, but the lake is 45 some feet lower this time of the year than last year at the same time, we may recover 40, maybe?? but with the overuse in the lower basin, next year this time we could be 60 feet plus lower(recover 40 but use 60 cycle) and declining every year thereafter. A real solution to over consumption needs to be found.
 
fastarget said:
Mother Nature has been generous this year, but the lake is 45 some feet lower this time of the year than last year at the same time, we may recover 40, maybe?? but with the overuse in the lower basin, next year this time we could be 60 feet plus lower(recover 40 but use 60 cycle) and declining every year thereafter. A real solution to over consumption needs to be found.
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With they lake this low it takes less water to raise a foot than over 3600
 
John P Funk said:
Don't forget that there are a lot of upstream reservoirs that are very low, and will not release to the watershed. In the San Juan drainage: Lemon and Vallecito are less than 20%. In the Dolores drainage: McPhee is at 44% and will only be releasing 22cfs for the foreseeable future. There's a reason that the inflow prediction is low for this runoff season even if snowpack remains average. Blue Mesa and Ridgway are also very low and will be holding as much water as comes from the mountains.
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John, you are right on the mark. If you look at the 28 reservoirs that are in the upper Colorado drainage system, it's going to take quite a bit to fill before there is a significant release. In talking to the water resource people in the Vallecito and Lemon reservoir drainages, we are looking good, but a lot of the snow pack will go to replenishing the reservoirs and also the ground water profiles for the irrigation season. But it is interesting to note that Navajo came up .25 ft. in 1 day already! Us farmers are happy after last year's scenario. And praise the Lord it's raining here in Durango right now!!
 
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K&M said:
John, you are right on the mark. If you look at the 28 reservoirs that are in the upper Colorado drainage system, it's going to take quite a bit to fill before there is a significant release. In talking to the water resource people in the Vallecito and Lemon reservoir drainages, we are looking good, but a lot of the snow pack will go to replenishing the reservoirs and also the ground water profiles for the irrigation season. But it is interesting to note that Navajo came up .25 ft. in 1 day already! Us farmers are happy after last year's scenario. And praise the Lord it's raining here in Durango right now!!
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K&M... I think one of the big things from down in Durango area is the Animas River Drainage... there are no Dams on it... all that water flows straight to lake Powell ...Minus of course the pumping into Lake Nighthorse. At 138% above average. Only a percentage but all that flows into San Juan River
 
Taking the data from 1970-2019 the lowest "Average Elevation" was 2019, the highest 1983. This gives us a total of 49 data-points, one for every year.

The 25 lowest "Average Elevation" are all the years from 2002-2019 (18) with 1970-1973 (4), still fill-years, 1978(1) and 1991/1992(2) sprinkled in. The lowest ever so far is 2019.
The 24 highest "Average Elevation" are all the years from 1974-2001 ranging from the "All Time High" in 1983 of 3693.24 to 3644.78 in 1993.

Looking at the data-points this way, we only have 3 odd years, 1978 and 1991/1992, that do not fit in. Every other data just points to one conclusion. Drought years or not, we are taking more and more water of the top in the last 19 years which at this time is not being replenished by nature. The "Breaking Point" seems at about the 3640+ "Average Elevation". Above is 😁, below is 😪. The last time we saw a 😁 was 2001.
 
K&M said:
John, you are right on the mark. If you look at the 28 reservoirs that are in the upper Colorado drainage system, it's going to take quite a bit to fill before there is a significant release. In talking to the water resource people in the Vallecito and Lemon reservoir drainages, we are looking good, but a lot of the snow pack will go to replenishing the reservoirs and also the ground water profiles for the irrigation season. But it is interesting to note that Navajo came up .25 ft. in 1 day already! Us farmers are happy after last year's scenario. And praise the Lord it's raining here in Durango right now!!
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Good article from Durango Herald from last month about the reservoirs filling up.

Article Link
How much snowpack will make it to reservoirs?



Water managers fear parched soil will soak up significant amount of moisture
By Jonathan Romeo County & environment reporter
Friday, Feb. 15, 2019 5:07 PM
Updated: Sunday, Feb. 17, 2019 12:06 PM
Follow @jonathandherald
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Water managers fear the parched landscape will soak up a significant amount of water before it can reach and replenish area reservoirs. Vallecito Reservoir was about 30 percent full Friday.
Durango Herald file
Southwest Colorado’s snowpack is right on track with historic averages, a far cry from last year, but all that potential water may not make it into the region’s needy reservoirs.
A number of different factors could hamper snowpack in the mountains from reaching reservoirs, especially water being soaked up by the parched forest floor.
Southwest Colorado has been feeling the effects of intense drought since fall 2017.
The region received about half the amount of snow it usually does during the 2017-18 winter season. Then, rains failed to show up in spring and summer, leading to the second lowest water year for the region in recorded history.
That has resulted in low levels in area reservoirs. As of Friday, for instance, Vallecito Reservoir was about 30 percent full, and Lemon Reservoir, farther to the west, sat at about 17 percent capacity.
For water managers, it has been a welcome sight to see storm after storm deliver snow this winter. As a result, snowpack in the Animas, Dolores, San Juan and San Miguel basins is at 114 percent.
But water managers are taking the season’s snow in stride.
It is positive that the parched earth will receive much-needed moisture, but the low soil moisture content means much of that water won’t make it to reservoirs. The soil acts like a sponge.
“Soil moisture is really the big kicker this year,” said Susan Behery, a hydraulic engineer with the Bureau of Reclamation’s office in Durango.
Attempts to reach the Colorado River Basin Forecast Center, which forecasts spring runoff, were unsuccessful Thursday and Friday.
Becky Bollinger, a research associate with the Colorado Climate Center, said in a conference call to reporters Thursday that despite strong snowpack in the Colorado River Basin, the center predicts lower-than-average levels in water supplies.
The reason: Again, it comes back to soil moisture.
“It will be a critical piece in the spring,” Bollinger said. “But there might be some uncertainty as to how critical.”
It’s difficult to predict how much moisture the soil will soak up. But, it is an issue that has water managers holding out hope for more snow.
Ken Beck with the Pine River Irrigation District, which manages Vallecito Reservoir, said it will likely take snowpack reaching 130 to 150 percent of average levels to get the 125,400-acre-foot reservoir full again.
“We’re not out of the woods yet,” Beck said. “I don’t mean to seem pessimistic because we’re excited, but we want to be cautious because we have a long ways to go to fill it.”
Beck said other factors also cause water losses to reservoirs, such as desert dust deposited on snowpack during wind storms causing water to evaporate and runoff to occur earlier than normal. Wind itself can also cause water loss, Beck said, pulling the moisture out of the soil and dehydrating it.
As of Thursday, the U.S. Drought Monitor delisted nearly all of Southwest Colorado from the “exceptional drought” category, the center’s highest level. The region remains in the “extreme drought” category.
jromeo@durangoherald.com
 
fastarget said:
Mother Nature has been generous this year, but the lake is 45 some feet lower this time of the year than last year at the same time, we may recover 40, maybe?? but with the overuse in the lower basin, next year this time we could be 60 feet plus lower(recover 40 but use 60 cycle) and declining every year thereafter. A real solution to over consumption needs to be found.
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"Every other data just points to one conclusion. Drought years or not, we are taking more and more water of the top in the last 19 years which at this time is not being replenished by nature".
Great write up "Outside", and Bjorn, with the lower basin's huge growth and consumption, without immediate conservation, the amazing lakes will keep losing water content, mother nature cannot catch up unless there are multiple huge wet years.
 
Squirrel said:
Is that the one off Stanton or is it farther up river? Sq
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This is in the mouth of Bullfrog bay straight across from the buoy field closer to the marina. You pass the buoy if you are going to Hall's from bullfrog but if you are coming from up lake the buoy is to far west to mark those shallow spots. I would say stick to the red and green buoys in bullfrog bay and don't start heading up lake until you pass the rock buoy. I'll take a photo looking towards Hall's instead of towards Stanton and the other shallow spot towards Stanton that isn't marked before I leave Sunday.
 
I hit the rock you are talking about in october , squirrel. When I came back in December it was an island . The Colorado river is running muddy at Rifle, but is normal as you go towards Glenwood Springs on I-70. It rained hard again today here in Silt. My brother came over from Colorado Springs and was stopped for a slide on battle mountain pass .
 
Thanks, I’ll be down on the 25th to observe the mayhem at the Exec. SVS. Ramp. Sounds like renting a slip for 4 or 5 days will be worth Every Penny. Sq
 
SALT LAKE CITY — Another big storm dumped nearly two feet of snow in the mountains between Friday and Saturday mornings, leaving Little Cottonwood Canyon closed for avalanche control until 8:30 a.m. on Saturday.
Snowbird reports it received 20 inches of snow in a 24-hour period, bringing its year-to-date snow totals to 496 inches. Similar snow totals could be seen in other mountain canyons, resulting in multiple road closures Friday night due to avalanches.

A large avalanche closed Provo Canyon’s Highway 189 on Friday afternoon after snow swamped both lanes of the road, the Utah Department of Transportation said. Shortly after 8:45 p.m. on Friday night the road was reopened.
State Route 92 also experienced closures due to the Provo slide, Utah Highway Patrol officials said. The road has since been reopened, according to a Utah Highway Patrol tweet.
Despite inconveniences on the road, ski resorts might be experiencing a positive fallout from Friday’s heavy snowfall. Brighton and Solitude both received seven inches of snow overnight and 14 inches since Friday morning, according to their snow report.
Alta saw nine inches of snow since Friday afternoon and 13 inches of snow since Friday morning. Park City got three inches of snow overnight and nine inches since Friday morning, bringing their snow totals to 311 inches in the current season.
 
Mooner said:
SALT LAKE CITY — Another big storm dumped nearly two feet of snow in the mountains between Friday and Saturday mornings, leaving Little Cottonwood Canyon closed for avalanche control until 8:30 a.m. on Saturday.
Snowbird reports it received 20 inches of snow in a 24-hour period, bringing its year-to-date snow totals to 496 inches. Similar snow totals could be seen in other mountain canyons, resulting in multiple road closures Friday night due to avalanches.

A large avalanche closed Provo Canyon’s Highway 189 on Friday afternoon after snow swamped both lanes of the road, the Utah Department of Transportation said. Shortly after 8:45 p.m. on Friday night the road was reopened.
State Route 92 also experienced closures due to the Provo slide, Utah Highway Patrol officials said. The road has since been reopened, according to a Utah Highway Patrol tweet.
Despite inconveniences on the road, ski resorts might be experiencing a positive fallout from Friday’s heavy snowfall. Brighton and Solitude both received seven inches of snow overnight and 14 inches since Friday morning, according to their snow report.
Alta saw nine inches of snow since Friday afternoon and 13 inches of snow since Friday morning. Park City got three inches of snow overnight and nine inches since Friday morning, bringing their snow totals to 311 inches in the current season.
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That's great they are getting all the snow to help end the drought but every area you talk about here doesn't flow into Lake Powell, sad to say. That doesn't happen until the snow is on the other side of Soldiers Summit.
But on another note, I had a tow to the SLC area the other day and drove thru a nice snow storm just North of Starvation Road. Nice and white up there this year especially compared to last year when it was bare dirt.
Still hoping for a monster spring snow storm though, to really drive the snowpack up. Is it crazy to dream for a 50 foot rise at Lake Powell. :)
 
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