Not So Poor outlook for the lake this year

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If you write enough checks to get people reelected it may happen. Not much hope for any common sense in California. Money, votes, green and socialism pretty much sums it up
 
It’s a good concept to figure out how to tweak California’s storage potential, but before going there, it’s worth summarizing the reality of water consumption in the state.

The state consumes roughly 100 million acre feet (MAF) per year, about 90% of which is used for agriculture, and the remainder for municipal/industrial uses. Agriculture is becoming an increasingly higher share of the total, and certain crops that people like, such as grapes (wine) and strawberries, use a lot per tons of crop. Alfalfa, lettuce and other irrigated crops use a lot too. Almonds are another big one.

The Colorado River provides about 4.4 MAF to California, or less than 5% of the state’s consumption total, and most of that is used for agriculture in the Imperial Valley. The vast majority of the water used in the state either comes from groundwater or from one or another reservoir associated with the State Water Project (SWP). Certain large cities have their own unique supplies: LA gets a lot of its supply from its own aqueduct up into the Owens Valley, SF from Hetch Hetchy Reservoir in Yosemite. Many smaller cities and counties up and down the state subscribe to the SWP, but it’s becoming an increasingly difficult source to sustain. Thus, some call for “more reservoirs”. The problem with that is that nearly all of the good accessible reservoir sites have been built, and the storage capacity of the remaining sites is relatively small.

For the future, the best bets for augmenting water supply in CA are 1) more groundwater injection (storage), including recycled treated water from wastewater plants; 2) desalination; and 3) more conservation, including plumbing retrofits. Conservation efforts are already nearly maxed out on the municipal side. Desalination is still expensive, but getting more cost effective per acre-foot, and some plants are already online. But the big one is going to be recycled wastewater…already happening in places like Orange County, and state law will be changing soon to really open up this concept in general. I’m working on building such a plant in the City of Morro Bay. This is a way cheaper and more effective solution than the infrastructure and environmental costs of building new reservoirs, even if suitable sites could be found.

The most effective way to reduce California water consumption would be to stop growing all those things like almonds, berries, lettuce, grapes, etc… but people all over the world like to eat those from California, and until that changes, you’re going to see a lot of water consumption in CA…

Tough problem to solve… but not really a “choice” between water storage and bullet trains…
 
Trix said:
Today's gloomy forecast. We can only hope mother nature has a snowy spring for us.
www.postindependent.com

Runoff in Upper Colorado River Basin likely below-average, federal official warns

WESTMINSTER — The regional director of the Upper Colorado River Basin for the Bureau of Reclamation told water managers and users last week to expect below-average runoff this year,
www.postindependent.com www.postindependent.com
Click to expand...


February 8th, 2019. Today is day 131 of 365 for the Water Year 2019. We are 36% through the Water Year.

UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASINS Basin Index 115%
YAMPA AND WHITE RIVER BASINS Basin Index 111%
SAN MIGUEL, DOLORES AND SAN JUAN RIVER BASINS Basin Index 104%
LOWER GREEN RIVER Basin Index 97%

Things are looking up so far.... LET IT SNOW!
 
I like the article because although it predicts a lower than expected runoff, it gives some insight into some programs that may affect the future of the lake. I'm glad they are working on something, I hope our federal politicians can get along well enough to keep our government operating, as without that these programs cannot continue.
 
Skibum said:
Wx maps are showing a storm moving into the CO mtns tonight and tomorrow that appears to be positioned to dump the heaviest amounts in the San Juan. What my concern has been this year and the past several years, is the number of sunny, high wind days we seem to get every spring, which leads to high amounts of moisture lost to sublimation. The forest canopy loss to fires and disease exposes a lot more snow to this silent thief. The hope for high runoff for the lake is becoming like hope for the Broncos.....maybe next year. I recently flew from Page to Denver and the amount of rock showing anywhere in the Collegiate Pks was close to nil. I shot a video crossing the southern section that's on my phone. I don't know if the site allows for a video to be attached as a file. If so, it would show the heavy pack in that area, unfortunately some destined for the Arkansas drainage.
Click to expand...
You are right Skibum. Sublimation may be our worst enemy this year, given the good snow pack thus far.
 
The most effective way to reduce California water consumption would be to stop growing all those things like almonds, berries, lettuce, grapes, etc… but people all over the world like to eat those from California, and until that changes, you’re going to see a lot of water consumption in CA…

Maybe they should let the golf courses dry up and empty the swimming pools?
 
First post here, hope to keep my posts a bit more brief than Goblins. I'm also not a drainer!

With the official declaration of El Nino being made today and the likely hood of it sticking around until late spring, I'm really optimistic that the lake is going to make a decent rebound this runoff season.

The inflow predictions for WY19 provided by
https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/studies/images/PowellForecast.png
was last updated on 1/14/19.

"The forecast for water year 2019 unregulated inflow to Lake Powell, issued on January 1, 2019, by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, projects that the most probable (median) unregulated inflow volume next year will be 6.98 maf (64 percent of average). There is significant uncertainty regarding next season’s snowpack development and resulting runoff into Lake Powell. The forecast ranges from a minimum probable of 4.81 maf (44 percent of average) to a maximum probable of 10.38 maf (96 percent of average)."

These predictions state that in a best-case scenario, we will have just under average inflow to the lake, but more likely we will see 70% of average inflow. Well the good news is we are currently sitting at 109% of median total precipitation and snowpack based off today's numbers from http://lakepowell.water-data.com/

Based on this graph from https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/notice/Graphs/Upper_Colorado.png we are already above last years total runoff and nearing 80% of the entire snow water equivalent needed to hit average. With this trajectory and the El Nino helping us to have a wet spring, we've got an awesome chance at hitting above the maximum predicted inflow.

The last thing I want you all to see is https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/studies/images/PowellElevations.png The max probable line is shown in red and if my prediction is correct, how nice will it be to see the water elevation above the predicted 3600'
 
Flow said:
First post here, hope to keep my posts a bit more brief than Goblins. I'm also not a drainer!

With the official declaration of El Nino being made today and the likely hood of it sticking around until late spring, I'm really optimistic that the lake is going to make a decent rebound this runoff season.

The inflow predictions for WY19 provided by
https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/studies/images/PowellForecast.png
was last updated on 1/14/19.

"The forecast for water year 2019 unregulated inflow to Lake Powell, issued on January 1, 2019, by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, projects that the most probable (median) unregulated inflow volume next year will be 6.98 maf (64 percent of average). There is significant uncertainty regarding next season’s snowpack development and resulting runoff into Lake Powell. The forecast ranges from a minimum probable of 4.81 maf (44 percent of average) to a maximum probable of 10.38 maf (96 percent of average)."

These predictions state that in a best-case scenario, we will have just under average inflow to the lake, but more likely we will see 70% of average inflow. Well the good news is we are currently sitting at 109% of median total precipitation and snowpack based off today's numbers from http://lakepowell.water-data.com/

Based on this graph from https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/notice/Graphs/Upper_Colorado.png we are already above last years total runoff and nearing 80% of the entire snow water equivalent needed to hit average. With this trajectory and the El Nino helping us to have a wet spring, we've got an awesome chance at hitting above the maximum predicted inflow.

The last thing I want you all to see is https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/studies/images/PowellElevations.png The max probable line is shown in red and if my prediction is correct, how nice will it be to see the water elevation above the predicted 3600'
Click to expand...
Good analysis and hope you’re right. Note that for Feb the report is based on Most Probable at 74% of avg, with Max at 123%... so we’re between those but trending on the high end right now... Still need to maintain that kind of flow into March and April, but so far so good...
 
JFRCalifornia said:
Good analysis and hope you’re right. Note that for Feb the report is based on Most Probable at 74% of avg, with Max at 123%... so we’re between those but trending on the high end right now... Still need to maintain that kind of flow into March and April, but so far so good...
Click to expand...

Appreciate that, and you're absolutely right on the Feb report. I see the line graph for probable elevations also reflects Feb too so I really hope we shatter that 123% number.
 
sorry you think I am a Goblin. I have been here for years but never have posted or had an account. I don't consider a post number as anything but a number. I appreciate your info. and am not accusing you of being a drainer. It is just a sore spot with me when I live next to Blue Mesa and it is almost empty. I live where there is a lot of water and still try to conserve. It pisses me off to see green golf courses though when we have a water shortage.
 
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