Not So Poor outlook for the lake this year

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The lake is lower than it’s been in more than 10 years. We went our first time in June of 2017 so I think we’re spoiled since we may have experienced Powell at the highest point we’ll see it in our lifetime. It will also be interesting to see what things look like now that the water is 60 feet lower than the last time we were there.
 
Current condition at Bullfrog as of yesterday (1/28/19).
Sign at the top of the ramp saying ramp is closed with cones across the entire ramp.
Drove past them and within minutes, park service was there but recognized it was me and let me take the pictures. Plus, no boat in tow helped. haha
DSCN0051_040moon.JPGDSCN0049_038moon.JPG
 
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linnell said:
I remember launching from the left side, musta been 05
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Me too, but they are not allowing any launching from there right now. This is much lower than '05 it seems. Would be nice if they could at least keep the water level to a point where launch ramps are useable.

I don't recall ever seeing the islands on the west side of Bullfrog Bay though. The second picture is looking across the bay towards Hall's Crossing and there are islands.

Soon, we'll all have to go to Wahweap to enjoy the lake and the drainers will be winning. Almost looks like they already are!
 
I know The Lake is low and getting lower. Below are a few pics from my trip last week. The trees are in the back of Rock Creek. Dungeon Canyon is really different and Even Wetheril looks like a new canyon (see pic of end). However, I believe that this is part of a cycle and we will yet see higher water again. 20190125_151303.jpg20190126_110043.jpg20190126_122758.jpg

Oh and this is the whale I hit just over a month ago. It is quite visible now...20190126_112137.jpg
 
Dave I. said:
Me too, but they are not allowing any launching from there right now. This is much lower than '05 it seems. Would be nice if they could at least keep the water level to a point where launch ramps are useable.

I don't recall ever seeing the islands on the west side of Bullfrog Bay though. The second picture is looking across the bay towards Hall's Crossing and there are islands.

Soon, we'll all have to go to Wahweap to enjoy the lake and the drainers will be winning. Almost looks like they already are!
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I remember the islands too, caught a ton of fish there one day
 
Reed said:
I know The Lake is low and getting lower. Below are a few pics from my trip last week. The trees are in the back of Rock Creek. Dungeon Canyon is really different and Even Wetheril looks like a new canyon (see pic of end). However, I believe that this is part of a cycle and we will yet see higher water again. View attachment 3875View attachment 3876View attachment 3877

Oh and this is the whale I hit just over a month ago. It is quite visible now...View attachment 3878
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Reed, where is the whale that you hit last month located? I couldn't tell in the original post or in this newer one. Thx, Doug
 
Conditions were similar in 14'
On February 1st 2014 the lake level was 3578, snow pack was at 98%
On February 1st 2019 the lake level will be 3576, snow pack is currently 103%

Lake came up to 3609 in 2014, data showed snow pack maintained at the average for the rest of the spring.
 
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Dungee Fishing said:
Conditions were similar in 14'
On February 1st 2014 the lake level was 3578, snow pack was at 98%
On February 1st 2019 the lake level will be 3576, snow pack is currently 103%

Lake came up to 3609 in 2014, data showed snow pack maintained at the average for the rest of the spring.
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I hope your right. I wonder how the deficit in Lake Mead compares to 2014, and how that will affect the lake levels?
 
Havalina said:
The flaming gorge is full👍 And blue mesa fills pretty quickly. It from where it is know to where I could not get under the lake fork bridge in one spring. I believe that was 2015. I am more concerned with the permanent migration to the Phoenix area. Apparently lots of folks from the west coast wanting to go there.
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I work for an insurance company that pulled its entire operation out of CA and moved it to Phoenix. Too expensive to employ people there as compared to here. There are pros and cons but I'm with you on the growth in the middle of the desert that just doesn't seem to stop. Scary.
 
Wx maps are showing a storm moving into the CO mtns tonight and tomorrow that appears to be positioned to dump the heaviest amounts in the San Juan. What my concern has been this year and the past several years, is the number of sunny, high wind days we seem to get every spring, which leads to high amounts of moisture lost to sublimation. The forest canopy loss to fires and disease exposes a lot more snow to this silent thief. The hope for high runoff for the lake is becoming like hope for the Broncos.....maybe next year. I recently flew from Page to Denver and the amount of rock showing anywhere in the Collegiate Pks was close to nil. I shot a video crossing the southern section that's on my phone. I don't know if the site allows for a video to be attached as a file. If so, it would show the heavy pack in that area, unfortunately some destined for the Arkansas drainage.
 
chrisut said:
If memory serves me correctly, Powell has sent 9 MAF to mead each year since 2014, yet Mead has seen a 20' drop. that seems like a problem in the lower basin states with their consumption.
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The Lower Basin states always max out their consumption potential every year up to their legal limit. The big picture issue is that what they are allowed to take exceeds the sustainable rainfall/runoff input to the Colorado River basin. The releases from Lake Powell do what they can, but some is always lost to evaporation or inefficiencies in the system, and in recent years there's been far-below-average direct precipitation input within the lower basin drainages that directly feed Lake Mead. In the long haul, the trend in the combined reservoirs can only head downward unless there's a fundamental renegotiation of the Colorado River Compact and everyone agrees to take less... this will become a more obvious conclusion once the Upper Basin states assert their water rights, which they have not done yet... The only other way this trend changes is if the average input to the Colorado River Basin changes, and input exceeds consumption + evaporation loss... 100 years of data suggest this isn't going to happen, although it's true there have been long periods within that data set that exceed the "average", which provides hope, but climatologists and hydrologists would seem to agree that that's not a sustainable concept to hang your hat on...
 
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