Not So Poor outlook for the lake this year

Mildog

Active Member
I, like many word-lings on this site, check the snowpack daily and water levels almost daily. I am always trying to imagine/predict what will happen to the lake this year.
From my observations 2014 is a good year to look at for a SWAG the lake level low point was 3574 for this time in March 2014
this year we are at 3571 so within 3 feet for a starting point for 2019..... 2014 was a pretty good snow pack year, currently we are above 2014 snowpack and trending up quite a bit above 2014 and hopefully it will continue. So with that in mind and as a comparison, which is a good starting point for how much it will rise since starting elevations are close....
In 2014 the lake level max was 3609 for a total rise of 35 FEET
If things hold and water releases aren't drastically higher, I think it would be a safe bet that 2019 Lake levels would exceed 3610 or a rise of 39 Feet or more since snowpack levels appear that they will be significantly better then 2014 which was a good year... and the lake rose 35 feet from a similar starting point. That probably would not occur until June depending on timing of the runoff.
With a continued wet spring maybe even a few feet higher!!
That's my best educated Silly wild a** Guess..
Lets all cross our fingers and hope for more water in the drainage !!!
Mildog out!
 

Pegasus

Well-Known Member
I, like many word-lings on this site, check the snowpack daily and water levels almost daily. I am always trying to imagine/predict what will happen to the lake this year.
From my observations 2014 is a good year to look at for a SWAG the lake level low point was 3574 for this time in March 2014
this year we are at 3571 so within 3 feet for a starting point for 2019..... 2014 was a pretty good snow pack year, currently we are above 2014 snowpack and trending up quite a bit above 2014 and hopefully it will continue. So with that in mind and as a comparison, which is a good starting point for how much it will rise since starting elevations are close....
In 2014 the lake level max was 3609 for a total rise of 35 FEET
If things hold and water releases aren't drastically higher, I think it would be a safe bet that 2019 Lake levels would exceed 3610 or a rise of 39 Feet or more since snowpack levels appear that they will be significantly better then 2014 which was a good year... and the lake rose 35 feet from a similar starting point. That probably would not occur until June depending on timing of the runoff.
With a continued wet spring maybe even a few feet higher!!
That's my best educated Silly wild a** Guess..
Lets all cross our fingers and hope for more water in the drainage !!!
Mildog out!
I don't recall if I read this on WW, or saw it on the news (or read it on the interweb, which would obviously mean it is a fact), but runoff this year is expected to be significantly impacted by how lousy last years winter was. What I recall reading said that the runoff that reaches the lake will only be 82% of the total SWE, with the deficit between 82% and 100% expected to be absorbed into the very dry ground leftover from last year.

So to put this into numbers, the current SWE is 19.6" as of today. 82% of that is 16.07", which is almost exactly at the 7-year average maximum reached per the SWE graph. So if this is true, we can still expect runoff at 100% of the 7-year average, but only, thankfully, because we are actually at 19.6"/132% or normal right now.

Since we're guessing, I'd say we'll end up at 3601 in early July. But I hope you all guessing much higher than that are right!
 
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Looking at the Water Data Base I put my dull pencil to work. Last year the lake only came up 3' (between May 2 & June 8) in 37 days. The lake lost 10' (between Jan 24 & May 2) Using those #'s, and with the same runoff inflow we MAY only have a high water level of 3571. That said, we May not get to use the main Bullfrog ramp this year. I hope I am wrong but the outlook is still dismal at best.
Please somebody tell me those #'s don't add up. Sq
Looking good now. We need about 10-12 years like now to get back up Lake
 

sparkin5280

Member
I wish we could change the title of this thread... It's kind of misleading now. We are beyond "poor outlook" and are deep into "excellent outlook." I can just imagine how busy the marina staff will be moving marinas, slips, and buoys every other day with the rising water.

Fill 'er up!

Tiff :)
Yep I'm pretty sure we're going to have solid two to three weeks of one foot gains give or take. They're going to be busy come mid May. I'll say it again the snow in the Colorado High Country is insane right now. Nobody that I know that's been living here at least 30 years has seen anything like it. Looks like there's more moisture coming end of next week.
 

birdsnest

Well-Known Member
I wish we could change the title of this thread... It's kind of misleading now. We are beyond "poor outlook" and are deep into "excellent outlook." I can just imagine how busy the marina staff will be moving marinas, slips, and buoys every other day with the rising water.

Fill 'er up!

Tiff :)
C'mon Tiff, Ya gotta love the irony. From "poor outlook" to this this, it's great. And BTW add all the newbies houseboaters that come back to their houseboat being sideways on the beach to the marina staff impacted by the rising waters.
 
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