Not So Poor outlook for the lake this year

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Squirrel

Squirrel

Keeper of San Juan Secrets
Looking at the Water Data Base I put my dull pencil to work. Last year the lake only came up 3' (between May 2 & June 8) in 37 days. The lake lost 10' (between Jan 24 & May 2) Using those #'s, and with the same runoff inflow we MAY only have a high water level of 3571. That said, we May not get to use the main Bullfrog ramp this year. I hope I am wrong but the outlook is still dismal at best.
Please somebody tell me those #'s don't add up. Sq
 
With a near normal to normal snow year, 25 to 30 feet is about right.

Not sure if the link will work but you can search yearly min/max here: http://lakepowell.water-data.

Besides last year, there was never a single digit increase and never anything lower than 13 feet. Let it snow!!!
 
Watty33 said:
With a near normal to normal snow year, 25 to 30 feet is about right.

Not sure if the link will work but you can search yearly min/max here: http://lakepowell.water-data.

Besides last year, there was never a single digit increase and never anything lower than 13 feet. Let it snow!!!
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Last year is my point, Colorado snow pack was average, not West of the divide, was below. The same for this year, so far. Sq
 
Squirrel said:
Last year is my point, Colorado snow pack was average, not West of the divide, was below. The same for this year, so far. Sq
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Squirrel, where are you getting last years numbers from? Because I remember it as a brutally dry year. Is my memory wrong?
 
I know numbers in Utah are up over 50% from where they were this same time last year.
 
I’m going on pure gut instinct right now but I think last winter was WAY drier than this winter. I suspect the 2018/2019 watershed for the Colorado and San Juan are going to be significantly better than 2017/2018.

That said, there’s also a lot of talk about filling Lake Mead and if that becomes the priority, it’s possible all the water will pass straight through Lake Powell...

Let’s keep our fingers crossed.
 
Squirrel said:
Last year is my point, Colorado snow pack was average, not West of the divide, was below. The same for this year, so far. Sq
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According to the chart, last year at this time it 65% of the average and was an extremely dry spring. Currently it's 105% of the average and can only hope for good spring snow. I'm only guessing but it looks like the spring is what can make or break the year?

http://snowpack.water-data.com/uppercolorado/index.php
 
Without looking at the numbers, charts, or any other data, I do know we here in Hanksville have had 5 cases of accumulated snow and one midnight rain this winter. Reason I know this specifically is because I have been trying to put a new roof on the house since storms started. yeah. grrr.

But compared to last winter, where we went a full year without any measurable snow/rain amounts, I would have a hard time believing the numbers are going to be that grim this year. Also, have a friend that works in the Henry Mountains and there is more snow up there than last year, but that's not hard to beat as there was none last year.

I do look at the snow pack report from time to time and last year I remember very low percentages (> 80%) in many places. This year, much closer to average. But, we are coming up on the traditional "heavy storm" period of the season down here. Keeping my fingers crossed for some good ones.....after I finish my roof of course.
 
Typically, March and April storms will make or break the snowpack moisture levels, regardless of what they are now. That's what saved us last year from a real disaster. I agree, looking good so far, and fingers crossed! I'm just as worried that the upcoming Colorado Compact discussions don't result in all water going into Lake Meade.
 
Cliff said:
Would 3600 flood some brush for the young fish?
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Yes there are some tumbleweed piles and woodlots that would have a positive impact on young fish but there is no old terrestrial vegetation at 3600. I did not look it up but it seems the last high water mark was around 3613 so old brush for fish habitat is now above that level. If the lake does not go that high then the new brush germinating in 2019 will provide habitat for fish in 2020.
 
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Don't forget that there are a lot of upstream reservoirs that are very low, and will not release to the watershed. In the San Juan drainage: Lemon and Vallecito are less than 20%. In the Dolores drainage: McPhee is at 44% and will only be releasing 22cfs for the foreseeable future. There's a reason that the inflow prediction is low for this runoff season even if snowpack remains average. Blue Mesa and Ridgway are also very low and will be holding as much water as comes from the mountains.
 
John P Funk said:
Don't forget that there are a lot of upstream reservoirs that are very low, and will not release to the watershed. In the San Juan drainage: Lemon and Vallecito are less than 20%. In the Dolores drainage: McPhee is at 44% and will only be releasing 22cfs for the foreseeable future. There's a reason that the inflow prediction is low for this runoff season even if snowpack remains average. Blue Mesa and Ridgway are also very low and will be holding as much water as comes from the mountains.
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OK. That makes sense.
 
The flaming gorge is full👍 And blue mesa fills pretty quickly. It went from where it is know to where I could not get under the lake fork bridge in one spring. I believe that was 2015. I am more concerned with the permanent migration to the Phoenix area. Apparently lots of folks from the west coast wanting to go there.
 
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