Private Idaho
Active Member
Fortunately I usually hunt and fish in groups of 1 or less.
Page tourists, COVID-19
- Thread starter Trix
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airford1
Well-Known Member
The harsh reality is that you dont Lockdown a world for a cold like flu. We will have a large percentage of elderly and other at risk die. The lockdown is nothing more than an effort to slow the tide of deaths that we cannot handle all at once. I am having some trouble with that thought.
The only reason the mortality rate is shown as high as it is is because we don't really know what the real denominator is for the fraction yet. Lots of reports of people with the Virus that have no or very little symptoms and recover rapidly. Only wider spread testing will really account for the proper mortality rate. How many have it an how many actually die.
More so, the actual deaths are mostly limited to the elderly (and others ) with underlying health issues NOT the generally healthy person.
More so, the actual deaths are mostly limited to the elderly (and others ) with underlying health issues NOT the generally healthy person.
Outside
Well-Known Member
This is changing for France: More than half of France Covid19 ICU patients under 60
airford1
Well-Known Member
Like I said people will die a lot of people and there isn't anything they can do to stop it. Fact. The world I have lived in has forever changed
But do they have underlying health issues to compound the situation?
Outside
Well-Known Member
Probably more smokers than here.
Fursniper
Well-Known Member
There was a person in Kayenta today that tested positive for the Corona virus. A second case was also reported in Chilchinbeto. Both are in Navajo County. It's getting closer to us. 
Navajo Nation reports second coronavirus case
Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez announced the second case during a radio forum held by his office.
www.daily-times.com
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Dave I.
Escalante-Class Member
The CDC estimates that up to 42.9 million people got sick during the 2018-2019 flu season, 647,000 people were hospitalized and 61,200 died. If you really look at that statement, the total number of 42.9 million is an estimate.
That said, with the Covid-19 virus, it has been reported that 80% have very mild to no symptoms. That means the majority of people will get a headache or a cough and not go to the hospital and this percentage will eventually be an estimate. I haven't seen an estimate how many actually have Covid-19 but didn't report or go to the hospital.
So, seeing that they don't have en exact number of who are sick with it it's really hard to say what the percentage really is. If you look at those confirmed flu hospitalizations/deaths ratio, that is actually almost 9.5% mortality rate for the confirmed cases Compare that to the 1% - 3% mortality rate of confirmed Covid-19 cases.
Is it a serious virus? Of course. Is panic setting in because of another "flu" virus? I think so.
That said, with the Covid-19 virus, it has been reported that 80% have very mild to no symptoms. That means the majority of people will get a headache or a cough and not go to the hospital and this percentage will eventually be an estimate. I haven't seen an estimate how many actually have Covid-19 but didn't report or go to the hospital.
So, seeing that they don't have en exact number of who are sick with it it's really hard to say what the percentage really is. If you look at those confirmed flu hospitalizations/deaths ratio, that is actually almost 9.5% mortality rate for the confirmed cases Compare that to the 1% - 3% mortality rate of confirmed Covid-19 cases.
Is it a serious virus? Of course. Is panic setting in because of another "flu" virus? I think so.
We will come to find out that the hysteria (and it is hysteria) seen in the buying patterns of the general public (toilet paper, water bottles, etc) and the general public insecurity has been brought about by unfounded rumors and comments on social media along with the 24/7 hysterical talking heads on TV
Trix
Keeper of San Juan Secrets
If the statistics from China are now valid, only 13 new cases yesterday. New York 774. As Cliff wrote, we really don't know the undiagnosed cases.
Flu deaths this season in U.S. approximately 16,000. Hard for me to understand the panic to protect geezers like me.
Flu deaths this season in U.S. approximately 16,000. Hard for me to understand the panic to protect geezers like me.
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Guido
Active Member
Sorry Dave you are comparing an apple to an orange.
Just as a for instance, typically you are only contagious when you are symptomatic, with this one you are contagious the minute you get it for anywhere up to 14 days. Therefore you are unknowingly spreading the "Love" around. Which in most cases is unintentional as most of us rational people stay home when we have cold and flu symptoms so as not to infect others. It is also way more contagious then typical H1N variants.
Also of note is that the older generation (hence why the younger generation are not concerned, and BTW they started a new hashtag for the virus last weekend #BoomerRemover) are at much higher risk with this than the typical flu, especially if they have a compromised immune system.
So you see there are drastic differences, so doing a comparison is not really fair.
Unfortunately myself and my wife fall into that category so we have decided to just stay home and only go out if absolutely necessary.
And to boot do you really think China and Iran (you can throw Russia in there as apparently they only have a reported 147 cases and no deaths) have been transparent about the real numbers? I think not as I have seen enough data from those leaving those areas saying to the contrary.
Here is the link to the Moscow Times
www.themoscowtimes.com
I think Italy (and Spain but it is still early days yet for them) are being more transparent, and it is pretty dire in Italy.
Came across this yesterday where young and old alike are pleading with the US to take it more seriously than they did, which is why they are where they are. And I think the medical experts here are trying, but we are not listening and I am asking to just stop for a minute and view the video and read the article, because we know that the younger stronger folks are going to be fine but just remember if you are spreading it around the ones you are doing the most harm to are your parents and grandparents. Let me apologize up front for the inconvenience.
Here is the video from it (it's posted on youtube).
And here is a link to the article.
Apparently we are only 10 days behind Italy on the coronavirus curve.
I also believe like you that some of the reactions are knee jerk panic ones, but I think we as a society need to really understand what we can do to try to stem the tide and be courteous to those who are not so young and healthy.
Sorry for the rant, but If I just convince a few people to be more careful and take this more serious then I accomplished my goal.
Just so you know I have been a wordling for almost 20 years now and do not post a lot but I really felt compelled in this instance.
Stay Home and Stay Safe my fellow wordlings and tight lines to all!
If you do go out just be smart about it.
John
Just as a for instance, typically you are only contagious when you are symptomatic, with this one you are contagious the minute you get it for anywhere up to 14 days. Therefore you are unknowingly spreading the "Love" around. Which in most cases is unintentional as most of us rational people stay home when we have cold and flu symptoms so as not to infect others. It is also way more contagious then typical H1N variants.
Also of note is that the older generation (hence why the younger generation are not concerned, and BTW they started a new hashtag for the virus last weekend #BoomerRemover) are at much higher risk with this than the typical flu, especially if they have a compromised immune system.
So you see there are drastic differences, so doing a comparison is not really fair.
Unfortunately myself and my wife fall into that category so we have decided to just stay home and only go out if absolutely necessary.
And to boot do you really think China and Iran (you can throw Russia in there as apparently they only have a reported 147 cases and no deaths) have been transparent about the real numbers? I think not as I have seen enough data from those leaving those areas saying to the contrary.
Here is the link to the Moscow Times
Coronavirus in Russia: The Latest News | Feb. 24 - The Moscow Times
Russia has confirmed 18,315,292 cases of coronavirus and 378,784 deaths, according to the national coronavirus information center. Russia’s total excess fatality count since the start of the coronavirus pandemic is at least 995,000. Under half the population is fully vaccinated.
I think Italy (and Spain but it is still early days yet for them) are being more transparent, and it is pretty dire in Italy.
Came across this yesterday where young and old alike are pleading with the US to take it more seriously than they did, which is why they are where they are. And I think the medical experts here are trying, but we are not listening and I am asking to just stop for a minute and view the video and read the article, because we know that the younger stronger folks are going to be fine but just remember if you are spreading it around the ones you are doing the most harm to are your parents and grandparents. Let me apologize up front for the inconvenience.
Here is the video from it (it's posted on youtube).
And here is a link to the article.
Apparently we are only 10 days behind Italy on the coronavirus curve.
I also believe like you that some of the reactions are knee jerk panic ones, but I think we as a society need to really understand what we can do to try to stem the tide and be courteous to those who are not so young and healthy.
Sorry for the rant, but If I just convince a few people to be more careful and take this more serious then I accomplished my goal.
Just so you know I have been a wordling for almost 20 years now and do not post a lot but I really felt compelled in this instance.
Stay Home and Stay Safe my fellow wordlings and tight lines to all!
If you do go out just be smart about it.
John
Dorado
Keeper of San Juan Secrets
It is a real threat. The panic buying and hoarding are just plain stupid though!
I heard an interesting interview with an epidemiologist who was asked how long this would continue (basically nobody really knows). But he stated that if the measures we are enacting "flatten the curve" of new cases works as desired, it will actually increase the length of the pandemic, but dramatically reduce the rate of spread to a level that the health care system wont be overwhelmed.
I can see the "social distancing" working, then all kinds of people complaining how it was all for nothing....
I just hope (selfishly) that they keep the ramps open at LP!!!
I heard an interesting interview with an epidemiologist who was asked how long this would continue (basically nobody really knows). But he stated that if the measures we are enacting "flatten the curve" of new cases works as desired, it will actually increase the length of the pandemic, but dramatically reduce the rate of spread to a level that the health care system wont be overwhelmed.
I can see the "social distancing" working, then all kinds of people complaining how it was all for nothing....
I just hope (selfishly) that they keep the ramps open at LP!!!
airford1
Well-Known Member
This is spot on. Flatten the curve to not over whelm the medical system. I have gotten 2 calls from my medical provide, first that I need to isolate because I'm in the highest risk group and the second one came today that they are postponing all none urgent medical appointment until further notice.
I found the article below interesting, and the core question real - is what we're doing to contain the COVID19 worth driving the entire country into a depression, which in turn will destroy the lives of far more than the corona virus is projected to destroy?
Risk of a depression vs. corona virus
Risk of a depression vs. corona virus
Dave I.
Escalante-Class Member
The fact is that it is not comparing apples and oranges. The "flu" is a virus just as much as the Corona Virus is. We just don't have an immunity to this new strand.
The other fact remains that Coronvirus has been around since the 1960's, just different strands. Copied this from a CDC report:
The CDC also says there are four main groupings of the virus: alpha, beta, gamma and delta. Within the four groupings, there are seven types of coronavirus that can infect humans:
1. 229E (alpha coronavirus)
2. NL63 (alpha coronavirus)
3. OC43 (beta coronavirus)
4. HKU1 (beta coronavirus)
There are also three other types of Coronavirus (Not considered "human Coronavirus"):
5. MERS-CoV (the beta coronavirus that causes Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, or MERS)
6. SARS-CoV (the beta coronavirus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS)
7. SARS-CoV-2 (the novel coronavirus that causes coronavirus disease 2019, or COVID-19)
Fact is it is something to be concerned about. If everyone does their part, this will pass just like previous bouts with diseases.
But, back to the issue of the Lake and launching. Met with Tacy (gate keeper at Bullfrog) today and they are being pulled from the stations to prevent unnecessary exposure to the NPS employees. The lake is still open but you'll have to use the kiosk until this all blows over.
God's speed to anyone that catches the virus. It's always tragic when loss of life happens.
The other fact remains that Coronvirus has been around since the 1960's, just different strands. Copied this from a CDC report:
The CDC also says there are four main groupings of the virus: alpha, beta, gamma and delta. Within the four groupings, there are seven types of coronavirus that can infect humans:
1. 229E (alpha coronavirus)
2. NL63 (alpha coronavirus)
3. OC43 (beta coronavirus)
4. HKU1 (beta coronavirus)
There are also three other types of Coronavirus (Not considered "human Coronavirus"):
5. MERS-CoV (the beta coronavirus that causes Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, or MERS)
6. SARS-CoV (the beta coronavirus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS)
7. SARS-CoV-2 (the novel coronavirus that causes coronavirus disease 2019, or COVID-19)
Fact is it is something to be concerned about. If everyone does their part, this will pass just like previous bouts with diseases.
But, back to the issue of the Lake and launching. Met with Tacy (gate keeper at Bullfrog) today and they are being pulled from the stations to prevent unnecessary exposure to the NPS employees. The lake is still open but you'll have to use the kiosk until this all blows over.
God's speed to anyone that catches the virus. It's always tragic when loss of life happens.
Fees have been suspended. No need to use the kiosk.
National Emergency
https://stateparks.utah.gov/2020/03/16/covid-19-updates/ Starting to see some partial closures as of today. All still open to fishing though.
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