How much do we expect the lake to rise this spring/summer

Unfortunately I don't believe the snowpack is anywhere near 59% of average on any day this weekend. That was a number from Mid March. No updates and no reasons why since. Think it's as simple as , if the data isn't to your liking just don't publish it. Sad time for science and honest data release in America.
Well the rivers flowing into Lake Powell are only at 39% of average so you have to assume that snow pack is very low. 59% at this time of year is super low.
 
FINALLY got a SWE update today. Believe it's in the 2-2.5 inch range. Absolutely not a very hopeful number. Unless a healthy precipatation period develops one can expect serious issues to materialize. Let's hope we get enough precipatation to at least squeak through the next 6 months.
 
 
“Since 1999, precipitation across the Colorado River Basin has declined by about 7%, and in some years only about half of the expected snowmelt actually reaches rivers and streams.”
 
I read that earlier today. Stating the obvious was my impression.
 
CO mountains got 8-20 inches of wet snow on Tuesday. I think statewide in the high country. Above 8500 feet.
Friday (tomorrow) is supposed to be cold with another 8 or so forecasted I think more for the northern mountains. Then there’s some forecasted rain into next week.

Every bit helps.
 
This is absolutely true. Evapotranspiration has the ability to remove immense amounts of water. Process can leave the uninitiated scratches their heads. Of course if plants get to the PWP ( permanent wilting point) then that ends the phenomenon. Not a great option I would suggestm9
 
Interesting article, but if they really thought our lake was gonna rise by 54 feet......why then would they move Bullfrog?

Is that a reasonable question? :unsure:
It's a reasonable question, and here's my take on a reasonable answer: The 24-month study released today shows the Powell surface at 3456 at its minimum. That's before today's announcement about cutting Powell releases and increasing Flaming Gorge releases. Add 54 feet to that and you get 3510. So I read the "54 feet" as meaning "54 feet higher than the low point that would otherwise occur." And reading the "54 feet" that way, next spring's minimum reservoir level would be 3510, which makes sense for avoiding minimum power pool at 3490', and also makes sense for moving Bullfrog.
 
It's a reasonable question, and here's my take on a reasonable answer: The 24-month study released today shows the Powell surface at 3456 at its minimum. That's before today's announcement about cutting Powell releases and increasing Flaming Gorge releases. Add 54 feet to that and you get 3510. So I read the "54 feet" as meaning "54 feet higher than the low point that would otherwise occur." And reading the "54 feet" that way, next spring's minimum reservoir level would be 3510, which makes sense for avoiding minimum power pool at 3490', and also makes sense for moving Bullfrog.
Thanks for that, Eagle Rock...yup, sure does make 'current' sense...20' above power pool! (y)

I shoulda learned to read and not just look at the pictures.....😜
 
It's a reasonable question, and here's my take on a reasonable answer: The 24-month study released today shows the Powell surface at 3456 at its minimum. That's before today's announcement about cutting Powell releases and increasing Flaming Gorge releases. Add 54 feet to that and you get 3510. So I read the "54 feet" as meaning "54 feet higher than the low point that would otherwise occur." And reading the "54 feet" that way, next spring's minimum reservoir level would be 3510, which makes sense for avoiding minimum power pool at 3490', and also makes sense for moving Bullfrog.
Exactly. The actual press release from the BoR is more clear and says they are targeting 3500 in April 2027.
 
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Just to translate these numbers into possible lake levels, here you go. Let's start with the assumption that the USBR does not alter its projected releases from Glen Canyon Dam through the summer, which I have to say are pretty modest by historic standards. We're talking about a release schedule that looks like this:

April - 490,000 af
May - 600,000 af
June - 800,000 af
July - 890,000 af

Total (Apr-Jul) - 2780 kaf

So if we've only got an inflow that might range between 1619-2302 kaf, that tells you the lake is going to drop. How much? Well here's the numbers:

If inflow is 2302 kaf, it would be 3519 on July 31...

...but if inflow is only 1619 kaf, it would be 3506 on July 31. Yikes...

And just for comparison, the USBR's March 2026 24-month study projects just under 3515 on July 31.

So the recent CBRFC forecasts are more or less consistent with the latest USBR projections.

But let's say USBR took extraordinary measures, and reduced releases through GCD each month to no more than 500 kaf. And let's say they ramped up the summer release from Flaming Gorge, which right now is projected to be a total of 292 kaf (Apr-July) to, let's say 400 kaf. That would buy an extra 900 kaf total for Lake Powell in the April-July period. And if that happened, then the range of July 31 lake levels would be 3523-3535. Basically, those moves could buy about 17 feet through the summer.

So USBR still has a few arrows left in the quiver if they choose to use them...
Lake Powell is already at 3524 elevation and it has only released 45% of it's minimum requirement as of today and were 55% through the water year. Also when the summer heats up a lot of water is lost through evaporation. A 500 MW coal plant uses 300 million gallons a day AZ and all the states drawing water from the Colorado should be building solar farms and shutting down there old coal plants as quickly as possible.
 
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