Just to translate these numbers into possible lake levels, here you go. Let's start with the assumption that the USBR does not alter its projected releases from Glen Canyon Dam through the summer, which I have to say are pretty modest by historic standards. We're talking about a release schedule that looks like this:
April - 490,000 af
May - 600,000 af
June - 800,000 af
July - 890,000 af
Total (Apr-Jul) - 2780 kaf
So if we've only got an inflow that might range between 1619-2302 kaf, that tells you the lake is going to drop. How much? Well here's the numbers:
If inflow is 2302 kaf, it would be 3519 on July 31...
...but if inflow is only 1619 kaf, it would be 3506 on July 31. Yikes...
And just for comparison, the USBR's March 2026 24-month study projects just under 3515 on July 31.
So the recent CBRFC forecasts are more or less consistent with the latest USBR projections.
But let's say USBR took extraordinary measures, and reduced releases through GCD each month to no more than 500 kaf. And let's say they ramped up the summer release from Flaming Gorge, which right now is projected to be a total of 292 kaf (Apr-July) to, let's say 400 kaf. That would buy an extra 900 kaf total for Lake Powell in the April-July period. And if that happened, then the range of July 31 lake levels would be 3523-3535. Basically, those moves could buy about 17 feet through the summer.
So USBR still has a few arrows left in the quiver if they choose to use them...