How much do we expect the lake to rise this spring/summer

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I don't think so, either. Our hyper-local water managers have made it plain that we'll all (municipalities+ag) will limp through this year, but if the snow pack next year is as dismal as this one, "all bets are off." I have some sympathy; they're trying to think their way though the unthinkable. I imagine the BoR could push as much water as is left out of Flaming Gorge, Blue Mesa... and anywhere else they have control for the next water year... but there will eventually be an end point w/o the muther of all high snow productive winters. I'm watching local reservoirs drained to mudflats to reduce surface evaporation by warehousing the water in deeper reservoirs. Whatever recreation those smaller bodies might have supported (to say nothing of aquatic life) has simply vaporized.
I am pretty sure that the long term plan is no recoup on the upper lakes until a new compact is signed, with the possibility drawing the FG and BM down to the 30% range. Once again this is the chatter that my friends at the US Fish and Game are hearing from the BOR. I am hoping for no moisture until the states get something figured out. I am not sure there will be much of a rise at all this year for Powell.
 
I am pretty sure that the long term plan is no recoup on the upper lakes until a new compact is signed, with the possibility drawing the FG and BM down to the 30% range. Once again this is the chatter that my friends at the US Fish and Game are hearing from the BOR. I am hoping for no moisture until the states get something figured out. I am not sure there will be much of a rise at all this year for Powell.
I'm not one to cut off my nose to spite my face. I am really praying for a wetter weather pattern for several years rather than more dry which will only bring a lot of pain.
 
I don't think there is a long term strategy, that should have been in place years ago, we all knew this would happen, at least the braintrust of this site knew it was coming. Next year, without dropping the flow by 50%, recreation and electricity from Powell will be a thing in the past............I certainly hope not though.

Remember, the lowest the lake will likely ever get is 3,370 feet (the elevation of the river outlet bypasses). That's still a couple hundred feet deep at the dam. So as long as you can get a watercraft on the lake, you should be able to recreate to some extent.
 
I would normally agree with you, but since the states can’t seem to figure out anything themselves. The only way anything will happen if through extreme measures. If we have a couple of years like this year, it will force the politicians to make a decision instead of kicking the can down the road. I don’t look at it like cutting my nose off despite my face. I look at it as the only option for all of the lakes to be able to recover. There is rarely any sort of comfortability in austerity.

If we were to have several wet years, we would see the same results from the bureaucrats as we saw in 2022, they just kicked the can down the road and here we are again. It was mentioned up above that the release from the flaming Gorge would not raise the water at Lake Powell, but prevent it from falling past a critical point. We are only supposed to see an unregulated inflow of 3.87 maf this year, with 7 out of the last 10 years below average. We need to change our thinking, as we cannot conserve our way out of the systemic deficit. Only after the deficit has been addressed will conservation efforts make any difference. I mean that if you look at the unregulated flow when they signed the 1922 compact, it was estimated at being 16 MAF and compare that to this year’s 3.87 MAF or around 12.7 maf for a 20 year average depending on the source. It simply doesn’t matter how much money you save buying something, if you don’t have the money to spend.

I am in high hopes that they get something done with the ramps up north, so I can fish this winter at Powell. However, as much as it would suck, I would for go a couple of years of fishing. If it would result in a new workable water compact.
 
After I asked everyone to respect the topic of the thread, your very next post was a diatribe on China, India, Solar, EVs, politicians in AZ and TX, cryptocurrency, etc.
Well politicians are the ones that make policy and poor policy decision's lead to consequences like the problems were having with droughts and lakes including Lake Powell and Lake Mead.
 
Well politicians are the ones that make policy and poor policy decision's lead to consequences like the problems were having with droughts and lakes including Lake Powell and Lake Mead.
While its easy to bag on the politicians this is a bit of a cop out. The root cause of the problem is the water users themselves. Any effort to make the necessary cuts is going to be met with public outrage and resistance. Take a look at the comments on any story about water usage or look at any news report where they interview people about water cuts. Its constant why doesn't everyone but me make cuts. Its everybody's fault but their own. California, Arizona, farmers, cows, data centers, golf courses, parks, Saudi Arabia, home owners associations, developers, anybody who moved to the southwest in the last 50 years, etc.

Any politician who wants to get re-elected (which is most of them) sees this and knows that cutting a deal which reduces their constituents water supply is going to cost them support. Now I will bag on the politicians in that this is a difficult issue that requires leadership and a willingness to be truthful with their voters that serious cuts are needed to southwest water usage that will lead to some pain for everyone. This of course requires politicians with integrity who are willing to risk their own electoral prospects to do the right thing - so yea, we are screwed on that one.

The end result here is the feds will be forced to mandate cuts without state/local support. This will be followed by decades of lawsuits and an outcome that is likely worse than if we worked together to come up with the least painful solution to all stakeholders. At least the politicians will be able to claim that they fought for our water and a bunch of lawyers will get rich.
 
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