What Changes When We Hit 3,525?

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I just saw on USBR's webpage that they have switched forecasting models. The new model shows this (source: here):

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It still looks like July/August are safe unless we fall outside the 10% probability range. Of course, last year, we fell in the 3% probability range, which would place us below the bottom of the ramp again in July. Furthermore, the data have not yet been updated to account for the dismal February precipitation in the Green River Basin.
 
Paladin said:
Hay has been $125 to $200 per ton for as long as I can remember.
See Western Slope Craig's List. You can't buy all the hay for sale.
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Paladin said:
Yep, its a processed product with any kind of formulation you want. Race horse to hogs.
Available by bag, bin and container.
Lot like dog food.

Hardly alfalfa.
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Live in Flag, but also have some dirt there on LaSalle that is farmed. What does the snow pack status look like in the San Juans (Red Mtn/upper Uncompahgre, Dallas Divide)? Any info/projections coming from Uncompahgre Water Users Assoc for 2022 ?
 
NZaugg that new BOR display is terrifying at the 10% probability level. Even the 50% is not pretty. In 10 days we should have their new projections with Feb data included, which should skew further down. Ironic that this report might be released on the very day we go below the 3525 balancing tier.
 
John P Funk said:
Based on the BOR projections for even the minimum projected inflow(red line), your concerns should be alleviated. At minimum inflow the max elevation is reached at 3540 the first of June, and falls to about 3537 the first of July. Assuming the ramp is extended to 3525(minimum level before rise) there should be plenty of ramp for launching smaller vessels. Problems with launching begin again in September 2022 when the water levels again reach 3525(again this is worst case scenario).
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While I am hopeful things turn out for the best this resource was not accurate at all last year and changed drastically in a few months.... I would not bank on this for a trip as of right now IMO.
 
Havalina said:
@Paladin

If Putin and Xi let us live long enough, I will let you know as soon as it is at the Flaming Gorge. I dropped it of this morning to have the helmsmaster joystick, and Radar installed.
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Radar!? Very cool.
I hope you got a pair of .50 cals and a rocket launcher too.
 
Paladin said:
Radar!? Very cool.
I hope you got a pair of .50 cals and a rocket launcher too.
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The helmsmaster with the joystick is even cooler. I have no desire to have a .50. I humped the Barrett m82 for several years and that puta weighs 33 lbs dry. However, if I could find a pair of m2’s and could figure out how to mount them, I would in a heartbeat.
 
svivian said:
While I am hopeful things turn out for the best this resource was not accurate at all last year and changed drastically in a few months.... I would not bank on this for a trip as of right now IMO.
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The new model is supposed to be significantly less optimistic. The expectation is that it should match the real world more frequently, but it is easy to model on past data and say it works well. It is much harder to get an accurate prediction in a given year. Hopefully they have better assumptions built into the model so we won't see actual values falling off the map anymore.
 
nzaugg said:
I just saw on USBR's webpage that they have switched forecasting models. The new model shows this (source: here):

View attachment 17362


It still looks like July/August are safe unless we fall outside the 10% probability range. Of course, last year, we fell in the 3% probability range, which would place us below the bottom of the ramp again in July. Furthermore, the data have not yet been updated to account for the dismal February precipitation in the Green River Basin.
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Looking at this graph is like listening to Psaki speak. Should have taken that funding and spent it on concrete.
 
JRJ said:
Live in Flag, but also have some dirt there on LaSalle that is farmed. What does the snow pack status look like in the San Juans (Red Mtn/upper Uncompahgre, Dallas Divide)? Any info/projections coming from Uncompahgre Water Users Assoc for 2022 ?
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I live in the Unc basin area (Montrose), below Ridgway and Dallas. As of this storm we are at about 110% of normal: good wet snow and cold. San Juans (Rio Grande) is about 95% of normal but they took a lot of snow today. Not sure where La Salle is.

Funny you mention the UVWUA. They are the most aggressive and well-funded water district I have ever encountered. They are strategically warning junior users, particularly those in the Ridgway/Ouray area that they are going to call their water if things get any worse. The upper Uncomphgre users got the message and filed in water court to implement some old BOR projects from 1950: a couple of dams and a pipeline to import water. You can find this on coyotegulch blog. It will definitely help them but, of course, everyone in the world is opposing them. They'll win because the water court knows that UVWUA is right and will prevail.
 
Well, tomorrow's Low Water Update will come on a day when the lake level will be above 3,525.00 (probably the last time until the runoff arrives), but next week the March 17 update will be the first one to post with a lake level that breaks below the Safety Tier (or whatever they're calling it officially).

Let's hope that they decide to give us some insight on the plans for water management as the lake level drops into the zone where they become concerned for the power generation status of the Glen Canyon Dam.

I know Billy Schott and Mary Plumb don't work for the Bureau of Reclamation, but they're closer to the BOR than any of us mere mortals. Please put some info in the March 17th update that will help us Wordlings make our plans for the upcoming season.

We'd really appreciate it.
 
Pardon my naïveté.......yet again.....:rolleyes: but I never understood all the hubbub regarding 3525

My recollection of real 'important' levels was 3520 for the Bullfrog ramp extension and 3490 for power generation.

Which episode did I miss while while making the popcorn......(for everyone, of course)

Thanks.....

Oh.....Butter? Salt?

:cool:
 
Well, 3525 is where the BOR had plans to reduce the outflow to try and keep Powell steady at that level, which provides protection from possible cavitation in the power turbines. I think the hubbub is that the snowpack is below the recent average, which is already below the long-term average, and there is at least the possibility that the spring runoff will be middlin' to poor, and if that happens, THAT means if they hold Powell at 3525, then Mead is going to drop like a stone. And if Mead drops low enough, it kicks off the next tier of drought measures.
 
That is the answer that I was hoping for when I posted this thread. Thanks!

But, is it possible that they will cut into the Powell safety margin in order to keep Mead from dropping and hitting the next tier? That is what I'm hoping the March 17th Low Water Update will OFFICIALLY address.
 
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Mary Plumb's March 10th Low Water Update, posted today March 11th in the Announcements section by Wayne, just made it official: Bullfrog North Ramp will only be extended to a lake level of 3,525.
 
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