I think it important to recognize projections imply Mead will reach the Level 3 Shortage Condition (i.e., <1,025') Spring, 2024. To avoid reaching the Upper Elevation Balancing Tier (i.e., >3,575'), combined with "best-guess"/by-the-hour-Spring-2023-runoff rate-unpredictability; it appears BOR is doing a spectacular job of managing the Mead/Powell dynamic. It looks like those are the two primary thresholds by which major/anticipatory releases are being determined. It's really bad day if Powell were to reach 3,575' or Mead >1,050' from a Compact standpoint this year. Why? Because of the probability of regressing back below those respective thresholds in future year(s). I'll call it "pinballing" (for those of us old enough to remember when the pinball gets stuck between a cushion and a bumper reverberating wildly and unpredictably). Until there is a high likelihood of maintaining both lake levels at the next higher thresholds for several years in a row, it would be penny wise and pound foolish to bounce back and forth year-to-year. Before doing that, it looks to me like they will lean toward getting upstream reservoirs within the drainage back up to snuff. Hopefully climatic conditions allow that within the next few years and beyond. BOR is apparently further protecting power-generation head by treating WY2022 0.48maf from Flaming Gorge "as if" it has already been released WY2023 (sort of a hedge/cushion against greater impacts of unknowns than anticipated). As JFR stated (as well as myself numerous times) recreation is, perhaps at best, a quaternary concern of BOR (and should be). Flood control, water storage, power generation, recreation...in that order. Clearly, wildlife is also in the mix...probably putting recreation at a quinary (?) level.
Recall, in my limited understanding of the way the power grid works relies greatly on hydro-power because of its ability to respond quickly, nearly instantaneously, to demand. Coal-fired (nuclear and natural gas-fired to a lesser degree) do not respond well to hourly demand changes which is why they are utilized as Base-level supplies. So, unless you like Texas-grade blackouts, it's darn good idea to be able to generate the juice with short notice. That requires head. In anticipation of some (always) unknown runoff rates, BOR is probably being judicious and planning for upcoming power demand in the Lower Basin (via Hoover). I have never had less than accolades toward BOR with regard to water management. They have access to a lot more data, experience, and intelligence than a bloke like me. Selfishly, I don't always like the result of their actions with regard to lake levels, in particular, but when I step back and swallow the proverbial pill with regard to the fact they have to look at things constantly from both macroscopic and microscopic views, I am grateful for (almost) all they do (smiling). Well done BOR! But, that's just me.
