What is BOR thinking?

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leesferrydave said:
HFE's are done for one, well really two reasons. The first is to move sand up out of the channel, the "sediment bank" where it accumulates, mostly during the monsoon season and build beaches in Grand Canyon. The second is that is is closer to predam flows/conditions. Never mind that they almost always have them in October/November when floods never occurred. There is a whole contingent of scientists/stakeholders what rant and rave about HFE, mainly the commercial river runners and the sediment scientists. The scientists wanted an HFE LAST YEAR!!! because the sediment "trigger" was way met afetr a monstrous monsoon season. The really stupid thing is that the sediment "bank" resets every year, it is an annual accounting. That menas that a flood flow will never occur in the spring when it was typical because the sediment trigger is never met till after the monsoons in the late summer. This HFE will be unusual. I beleive that only the first one was done in the spring in the late 90's.

The problem with these built in "triggers" i.e. triggers for HFE's, triggers for dumping water from GCD is that they do not take into account the situations/conditions during the period of time the trigger was met.
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Yep, generally know their objective, thanks for details. Timing stinks. And still an experiment after 25 years.
 
JFRCalifornia said:
Okay, I'll weigh in on this.

What happened in 1983 was unprecedented in the history of Lake Powell, and remains unique to this day. Many lessons were learned from that year. You had a situation where the lake was already at 3685 on April 1 (mistake #1), with the huge runoff yet to come. They just didn't anticipate exactly how big it would be. Inflows through most of April were in the 12-16,000 cfs range, but BOR didn't really react to this until about the middle of the month, when they increased outflows from about the usual 10,000 cfs to roughly 20,000 cfs (mistake #2). And so the lake remained at 3685 at the end of that month. It was May that was the inexplicable month. Inflows were consistently 30-40,000 cfs the entire month, that is until May 27, when hot weather kicked them over 50,000 cfs and quickly rose to nearly 90,000 cfs by June 1!! And what did BOR do that month? Outflows remained at 15-25,000 for the entire month...(mistake #3)

So with the lake at 3696 on June 1, and the lake still rising nearly a foot a day, an inevitable crisis loomed. We know how it played out, with the lake topping out at over 3708 on July 14, held together with plywood sheets. The entire month of June saw flows over 80,000 cfs, often much higher, and peaked at over 122,000 cfs on July 1.

Is BOR feeling another 1983 is coming? Perhaps in terms of inflows, at least for a short while, but not in terms of a possible overflow crisis. No chance. Let's play it out.

From April through July of 1983, the total inflow was (now I'll switch to maf) about 13.3 maf. During that same period, they released nearly 8.9 maf, so there was a net gain of 4.4 maf, and that's when the lake was almost already full. You saw the result.

This year, the April 1 NOAA prediction is that we'll see up to 11.3 maf headed for Powell. Some of this might be held back in the upper reservoirs beyond what is already planned, but you get the idea of how it compares with 1983. But let's say you really saw another 1983, and 13.3 maf enters the lake. If BOR did not release a single drop during those months, the lake would hold 18.7 maf at the end of July, which is an elevation of 3670. So the short answer is, no, there is no chance that Powell would overflow with a repeat of 1983 inflows. It would still only be a little over 75% full.

Right now, BOR 's current plan is to release 3.15 maf total from April through July--and that's with their recent announcement to increase April flows to 0.91 maf. Doesn't seem like much compared to 1983, so you can see the wheels turning in their collective heads. So let's say they bumped up that 4-month total to what it would take to result in a 9.5 maf release for the entire year, a totally plausible (and reasonable) concept? That would mean the 4-month release would be about 4.3 maf. And if they did that, Powell would see a net inflow of 9 maf during that period, entering August at 3636. Probably not going to happen.

So you can see the thoughts in the head of BOR, trying to hit a sweet spot, knowing that another 1983 summer inflow is very unlikely, but still remotely possible. Why would they release so much in April? Hard to say. They know the lake is not going to overflow anytime this summer, no matter how little they release, so "flood control" is not the issue. Helping Lake Mead? Maybe, but they can always relate more later, and they can never get water back to Powell. There's clearly more there than meets the eye. We'll learn a lot more about their thinking in their April 24-Month Report, due out at the end of this week. Then we'll have a lot more clarity from BOR...

By the way, people tend to forget that as big as 1983 was, the summer of 1984 was even bigger in terms of inflow. During that same four-month period, 13.7 maf flowed into Lake Powell, compared to 13.3 in 1983. So why wasn't there a crisis that time? Well, BOR learned from 1983. For one, the lake was 11 feet lower (3674) coming into April. Secondly, they increased outflows in April to about 25,000 cfs, and something like a max-ed out 44,000 cfs in May. They weren't taking any chances. And still with all that, the lake hit 3702 in early July.

The lesson for all of us there, is that BOR does know its own past, acts cautiously, and sometimes makes mistakes. Pretty much like everyone else...
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This is awesome, thank you very much! I agree and I don’t for see an out of control situation like 1983.

As you mention in the other thread there are so many variables to what could actually happen.

With that said, how about this:


1. Could upper basin reservoirs top out early and have to send water for an extended period of time to Powell? Flaming Gorge comes to mind. It seems to do well in our drought every year which would lead me to believe that the topography is quite favorable to runoff.

2. It’s my understanding that the spillways at GCD don’t come into play until a much higher water elevation than today. So how would this affect the speed of elevation gain if water could only pass through the penstocks and it was coming in at 60k to 100k cfs? In 1983 the “crisis” had the benefit of the immediate use of the spillways. So I guess the question is what is max outflow through the penstocks only? And how would that choke-point accelerate lake level rise up until the point the spillways start to flow?
 
bk2drvr said:
This is awesome, thank you very much! I agree and I don’t for see an out of control situation like 1983.

As you mention in the other thread there are so many variables to what could actually happen.

With that said, how about this:


1. Could upper basin reservoirs top out early and have to send water for an extended period of time to Powell? Flaming Gorge comes to mind. It seems to do well in our drought every year which would lead me to believe that the topography is quite favorable to runoff.

2. It’s my understanding that the spillways at GCD don’t come into play until a much higher water elevation than today. So how would this affect the speed of elevation gain if water could only pass through the penstocks and it was coming in at 60k to 100k cfs? In 1983 the “crisis” had the benefit of the immediate use of the spillways. So I guess the question is what is max outflow through the penstocks only? And how would that choke-point accelerate lake level rise up until the point the spillways start to flow?
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I think you’re getting carried away, Lake Powell is nowhere near full!

1. Flaming Gorge will not fill this year, the snowpack in the upper Green is above average, but not enough to make up for what was released last year. It still has quite a bit of capacity to absorb the runoff, it is nowhere near full.

2. Regardless of how huge the inflow gets, there is more than enough capacity in Lake Powell at its current low level to absorb this year’s runoff. Probably enough for several big years in a row(we can only hope). They will not spill that much water until it approaches fool pool. So any limitations in the penstock release volume will not come in to play.
 
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bk2drvr said:
This is awesome, thank you very much! I agree and I don’t for see an out of control situation like 1983.

As you mention in the other thread there are so many variables to what could actually happen.

With that said, how about this:


1. Could upper basin reservoirs top out early and have to send water for an extended period of time to Powell? Flaming Gorge comes to mind. It seems to do well in our drought every year which would lead me to believe that the topography is quite favorable to runoff.

2. It’s my understanding that the spillways at GCD don’t come into play until a much higher water elevation than today. So how would this affect the speed of elevation gain if water could only pass through the penstocks and it was coming in at 60k to 100k cfs? In 1983 the “crisis” had the benefit of the immediate use of the spillways. So I guess the question is what is max outflow through the penstocks only? And how would that choke-point accelerate lake level rise up until the point the spillways start to flow?
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A few days back I found on a USBR page that the penstocks max flow is 31,500 cfs (posted this in another thread). Tonight I can't find that page to provide the quote. Grrr. Now, if that's the correct max flow, USBR/Colorado River Storage Project would not willingly operate the generators "wide open" for extended periods. One of the advantages of hydro power is the ability to follow grid load and ramp up output for system emergencies. Thus, they want some turbines in reserve.
 
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Trix said:
...One of the advantages of hydro power is the ability to follow grid load and ramp up output for system emergencies. Thus, they want some turbines in reserve.
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With the change in power availability in the area due to solar power generation coming on-line in the daytime they can keep back the hydropower for the evenings when the price is better. That effectively gives them 1/3rd or more of ability to retain water if they are actually looking to "protect the system" for power generation.
 
I wonder if Aramark will have all the staff they need to keep up with the rapidly rising lake levels, in terms of modifying the docks, ramps, slips, marina anchors, mooring buoys, etc? Some of us can remember houseboats on mooring buoys at Hite being pulled down from the bow as the water level rapidly went up. If this runoff comes fast, they are going to need an army to keep up with adjustments. By the way, forecast in Western Colorado is 70's this week - the river is certainly on the rise and flowing muddy.
 
goodtimes said:
Could ramp-building activity be a factor here? There is work in process both North and South. Letting the level drop a little more now may help with that. Build while the water is low for the future and then let it fill more during runoff?
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Ramp building in the North??? Please share what you know.
 
Dorado said:
I think you’re getting carried away, Lake Powell is nowhere near full!

1. Flaming Gorge will not fill this year, the snowpack in the upper Green is above average, but not enough to make up for what was released last year. It still has quite a bit of capacity to absorb the runoff, it is nowhere near full.

2. Regardless of how huge the inflow gets, there is more than enough capacity in Lake Powell at its current low level to absorb this year’s runoff. Probably enough for several big years in a row(we can only hope). They will not spill that much water until it approaches fool pool. So any limitations in the penstock release volume will not come in to play.
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Not really carried away. I’m realistic that it would take a weather anomaly to bring Powell back to 3700 in one season. Just comparing some of the differences that could affect the rate of rise.

My own simple conservative prediction for this summer is based on 2019 water data, the difference in SWE for 2023 and +5% for low elevation snow. I arrived at 3613 for a peak.
 
Dorado said:
I think you’re getting carried away, Lake Powell is nowhere near full!

1. Flaming Gorge will not fill this year, the snowpack in the upper Green is above average, but not enough to make up for what was released last year. It still has quite a bit of capacity to absorb the runoff, it is nowhere near full.

2. Regardless of how huge the inflow gets, there is more than enough capacity in Lake Powell at its current low level to absorb this year’s runoff. Probably enough for several big years in a row(we can only hope). They will not spill that much water until it approaches fool pool. So any limitations in the penstock release volume will not come in to play.
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😂🤣 LOVE the FOOL POOL!!!😜
 
I worked on the crystal dam on a small remodel for the BOR . They are accountable to very few people. They are the God's of the water ways . Very hard headed and out of touch. They are releasing the water for all of the endangered fish species to create spawning habitat. They truly are ignorant to what the modern day needs. They are stuck in the past and can't adapt to our changing world and never think in advance. Let our voices be heard!
 
Dorado said:
I think you’re getting carried away, Lake Powell is nowhere near full!

1. Flaming Gorge will not fill this year, the snowpack in the upper Green is above average, but not enough to make up for what was released last year. It still has quite a bit of capacity to absorb the runoff, it is nowhere near full.

2. Regardless of how huge the inflow gets, there is more than enough capacity in Lake Powell at its current low level to absorb this year’s runoff. Probably enough for several big years in a row(we can only hope). They will not spill that much water until it approaches fool pool. So any limitations in the penstock release volume will not come in to play.
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You are exactly right. Havasu and Mojave are full so why or where is the water going? Common sense says to hold it at least until the run off starts. Storing it in Meade can be done at any time. I don't know who we p----- off but they sure seem to have it in for us Bullfrog Marina users.
 
leesferrydave said:
They drained Lake Hodges because the thing is 100 years old and was about to collapse. I mean for real. Chucks of concrete falling out of the interior spaces. I releally wahted to get over there and see this before repairs, but couldn't. A good friend of mine is the lake keeper there who is oh so happily retiring in May.
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Yes they are doing repair work. My beef is they took so long to permit to allow work on it. Hodges has been low for a long time. They won't allow it to fill all the way up because it's an earthquake hazard. Knowing we are in drought conditions repair work should have been priority one, as with most of our dams in California. I watched water go over the spillway at Hodges for many days back in the early 80s. Now they are talking about building a new dam and taking the old dam out. I'm sure that will be at least a 20-25 year talk!!!!
 
Well I now know where some of the water is going. Just drove over the White Water wash on I -10 west of Palm Springs. It is running heftily!!! This means CVWD has ordered water from MWD out of the Las Angeles aqueduct to fill there percolating ponds to replenish our aquifer. This hasn't happened for, I believe four years. LA wanted every drop of water then. I guess they have plenty water now so they can sell some of it.
 
Kevin G said:
I wonder if Aramark will have all the staff they need to keep up with the rapidly rising lake levels, in terms of modifying the docks, ramps, slips, marina anchors, mooring buoys, etc? Some of us can remember houseboats on mooring buoys at Hite being pulled down from the bow as the water level rapidly went up. If this runoff comes fast, they are going to need an army to keep up with adjustments. By the way, forecast in Western Colorado is 70's this week - the river is certainly on the rise and flowing muddy.
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Currently the staff at Hall’s Creek consists of ONE person. She’s covering the office, store, and ferrying people to and from the parking lot. No more staff till May 4th. 🤪
 
Buffalo said:
Currently the staff at Hall’s Creek consists of ONE person. She’s covering the office, store, and ferrying people to and from the parking lot. No more staff till May 4th. 🤪
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Is that Sarah??She has been great in te past?? Same phone ##??
 
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