Past the peak and a post-mortem...

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Then the the proposed pipeline to St. George shouldn't be an issue?
St George is the exact opposite of an example of responsible water use. The sheer number of lush golf courses dwarfs the water used by households, even the households with over watered lawns that really should not exist here.

The Virgin River has enough water to cover what we actually need, the pipeline is for wasteful luxury water.
 
St George is the exact opposite of an example of responsible water use. The sheer number of lush golf courses dwarfs the water used by households, even the households with over watered lawns that really should not exist here.

The Virgin River has enough water to cover what we actually need, the pipeline is for wasteful luxury water.
Just like LA, San Diego, Phoenix, Tuscon,Las Vegas.
 
St George is the exact opposite of an example of responsible water use. The sheer number of lush golf courses dwarfs the water used by households, even the households with over watered lawns that really should not exist here.

The Virgin River has enough water to cover what we actually need, the pipeline is for wasteful luxury water.
Words are loud but numbers scream. Show me the numbers. Golf courses have always been the low hanging fruit when come to the water usage argument but nobody follows up with hard numbers.
 
The thing is rich people golf and have golf course homes. I don’t think they really care where their alfalfa comes from. Utah or Canada probably not a big concern of theirs. If you tell a golfer he need to give it up so a cow can eat Utah hay instead of Canada hay he would probably laugh in your face.
 
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Words are loud but numbers scream. Show me the numbers. Golf courses have always been the low hanging fruit when come to the water usage argument but nobody follows up with hard numbers.
That's my problem with believing media! And nowadays I'm skeptical with the hard numbers. In this modern day, numbers are easily manipulated, and then turned to media to make everyone believe them!!!. Are we even so sure that the outflow numbers at Powell and Mead are what is posted? Seems to me they can be fudged less than what's actually released very easily!!! Remember the best way to raise prices is to create a shortage. The best way to gain control is to create a shortage.
 
A golf course in a hot dry climate uses about 6 af/yr/ac and an 18 hole course has about 90 acres of turf. So about 0.5 kaf/yr for a desert golf course.

Alfalfa also uses about 6 af/ac/yr in a hot dry climate. So when you drive by a golf course envision all those fairways and greens are alfalfa. There are of course vastly more alfalfa fields than golf courses in the southwest. And the regulations for water use at courses and farms are quite different as well since golf courses have permitting processes that subject them to very different water regulations than farms.

A California household uses about 0.5 af/yr. So a desert golf course uses about the same water as 1,000 households. But it isn’t necessarily the same water source…

A typical golf course has about 350 members, that’s a rough balance for enough play to generate revenue but not be overcrowded with hard to get tee times. So if you play golf regularly in the desert it is sort of like you have three extra households of water use if we naively assume the same water source for golf course irrigation as household use.

In the southwest most all golf courses (and certainly all new ones) use reclaimed water. Golf courses are typically subject to regulations since they need to be near their users to be economically viable. Their users aren’t that price sensitive. Thus golf course water usage is largely solvable with money and their users have money so that’s fairly easily solved. The industry has been down this path in the southwest for quite some time at this point.

It is worth noting that while a golf course can use reclaimed water, conversely you can’t reclaim water from a golf course because the use is evapotranspiration (i.e. the water goes into the grass and the air). Most household use ends up in wastewater that can be reclaimed. If there were far more golf courses than households that might be a problem, but right now there is gobs of potential reclaimed water for golf courses most places. And potentially farms as well. Reclamation infrastructure costs money though, so as long as people have water “rights” that give them cheap water there is no incentive to reclaim. At this point a southwest golf course is essentially forced to pay for reclaimed water. Others have choices and some urban areas are already deeply involved in reclamation projects for urban use.

Playing golf is a very water intensive activity. But as an optional recreational activity mostly played by the well to do that use is largely mitigated by spending money for reclamation infrastructure.

So another example of there’s plenty of water if you just fix the economics of water in the southwest.
 
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Words are loud but numbers scream. Show me the numbers. Golf courses have always been the low hanging fruit when come to the water usage argument but nobody follows up with hard numbers.
Let's talk per capita water use by state, and a little about golf courses specifically. On the question of per capita domestic water use, here's how the seven basin states stack up, and their rank nationally:

2. Utah - 169 gallons per capita per day
3. Wyoming - 156
4. Arizona - 145
6. Nevada - 126
7. Colorado - 123
18. California - 86
21. New Mexico - 81

US Average = 82

With the exception of California and New Mexico, the basin states have well-above-average per capita domestic water use per capita. Only Idaho is worse than Utah nationwide, at 184 gallons per capita per day. Wyoming, Arizona, Nevada and Colorado are not far behind. Within Utah, St. George is at the upper end of per capita domestic water use. So yes, they rate poorly in terms of water conservation. The following chart puts it all into greater perspective, showing the 21 states and territories with the highest per capita water use:

Water Use Per Capita - 2015 - top 21.jpeg


On the topic of golf courses, it's a different story. But instead of just looking at the total number of golf courses in each state (and water use associated with them), it's a more meaningful statistic to compare golf courses per square mile of land in the state. When you do that, Utah ranks near the bottom nationwide, and the least intensive when compared to the other six basin states. That said, St. George is doing what it can to raise Utah's golf course profile, for better or worse... Here's the chart that summarizes all that:

Golf Courses per Square Mile.jpeg
 
I welcome info from smart people on what I'm about to post. This is just my perception based on ~60 years living in Utah, seeing / hearing about water issues during that time, and watching what actually happens.

Utah, like other upper basin states, utilizes a fair number of sources for household water. Lots of springs, wells, and reservoir systems - mostly fairly local to the community where the water is consumed. The Green / Colorado rivers are not the primary suppliers of household water in Utah (guesstimates say maybe 20%). On a somewhat regular basis, our locally-managed reservoirs are full - and we even have to draw them down, from time to time, to make room for spring runoff. Meaning there is often an amount of use-it-or-lose-it water in the system. We do have droughts - and we're in one now - but that has mostly affected non-culinary water in the past. The glaring exception to this being St George / Washington County. There is also an issue with the shrinking Great Salt Lake due to water consumption prior to arrival (though less likely due to household water usage than industrial / agricultural).

All this to say, I don't think most Utahns have regularly felt compelled to conserve household water. In fact, it wasn't until I was married with kids that the state took any serious action to use anything other than culinary water for lawns and gardens. We now have separately-sourced pressurized irrigation water for outdoor use in many areas of the state.

I agree that we can and should do better. This is becoming especially obvious in southern Utah. Elsewhere, however, the culture of the status quo has been stronger than the perceived urgency to change.
 
I welcome info from smart people on what I'm about to post. This is just my perception based on ~60 years living in Utah, seeing / hearing about water issues during that time, and watching what actually happens.

Utah, like other upper basin states, utilizes a fair number of sources for household water. Lots of springs, wells, and reservoir systems - mostly fairly local to the community where the water is consumed. The Green / Colorado rivers are not the primary suppliers of household water in Utah (guesstimates say maybe 20%). On a somewhat regular basis, our locally-managed reservoirs are full - and we even have to draw them down, from time to time, to make room for spring runoff. Meaning there is often an amount of use-it-or-lose-it water in the system. We do have droughts - and we're in one now - but that has mostly affected non-culinary water in the past. The glaring exception to this being St George / Washington County. There is also an issue with the shrinking Great Salt Lake due to water consumption prior to arrival (though less likely due to household water usage than industrial / agricultural).

All this to say, I don't think most Utahns have regularly felt compelled to conserve household water. In fact, it wasn't until I was married with kids that the state took any serious action to use anything other than culinary water for lawns and gardens. We now have separately-sourced pressurized irrigation water for outdoor use in many areas of the state.

I agree that we can and should do better. This is becoming especially obvious in southern Utah. Elsewhere, however, the culture of the status quo has been stronger than the perceived urgency to change.
Thanks for the thoughtful post, Bart. It's a valuable inside perspective on what's really happening from someone who's seen a lot over many decades. And I agree with your guesstimate that about 20% of Utah's water supply comes from the Colorado/Green river basin.

As for water conservation, it may indeed be difficult to change cultural norms, but I agree a lot more could and should be done... Here's a few more thoughts about that with numbers...

The population of Washington County was about 180,000 in 2020. Per capita water use there is about 300 gpd. That is an extraordinarily high number. I realize some nearby ag water use is accounted for in the number, but it's still a big number compared to other western metro areas with ag uses on their fringes. Many western cities use less than half that amount per capita. Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Phoenix--all of them are well under 150 gpd each. (Examples: Maricopa County is 146 gpd, and the City of Los Angeles is about 70 gpd; Southern California as a whole, which includes a lot of ag lands, is about 115 gpd, a 45% drop since 1990.) So if Washington County could implement water conservation measures to cut per capita use in half to be more in line with those other metro areas (start with the green lawns, but that's just the low hanging fruit), here's the result: you'd save about 30,000 af per year!! And if that county doubles in population one day (as it plans to do), the savings at that point would be 60,000 af compared to what would have otherwise happened.

And that's just in the St. George area.

In other words, applying better water conservation principles (which costs very little) in places that have not done so is an infinitely more effective (and cheaper) way of "finding" new water supplies, especially ones like the Lake Powell pipeline, which would only bring 86,000 af... That project is one of the worst examples I can think of that epitomizes wasted money, time, and resources, all for dubious "benefits" that are much more efficiently achieved by other simpler means...
 
On a somewhat regular basis, our locally-managed reservoirs are full - and we even have to draw them down, from time to time, to make room for spring runoff. Meaning there is often an amount of use-it-or-lose-it water in the system.
When those reservoirs have to be drawn down, where does the water go? Is that the water that used to go the Great Salt Lake? But instead the lake is receding?
 
Some thoughts on the agricultural issue. It seems like a lot of the arguments are an all or nothing perspective. I don’t think we have to eliminate agriculture in the southwest but should look at cutting it back. The most obvious place to do that is the Imperial Valley.

Currently the imperial valley is by far the largest user of Colorado River water at 2.8 to 3.0 million-acre feet per year. For perspective, the minimum total release from Lake Mead is 9.0-million-acre feet per year.

So, how important is the Imperial Valley and can it be replaced? Total agricultural output from California is $60 billion annually. $2.6 billion of this (4.3%) comes from the Imperial Valley. Alfalfa accounts for $270 million (10%) of Imperial Vally production. Total US alfalfa production is $8.8 billion per year. The Imperial Valley produces 3% of US alfalfa. Note that it is estimated that 30% to 40% of Imperial Valley alfalfa is exported – so the domestic impacts would be somewhat mitigated. My takeaway from all of this is that a large reduction in Imperial Valley agricultural production would not have dramatic effects on US food prices. It’s a small piece of a very large pie.

We should consider buying out a large portion of the Imperial Valley water rights. If Imperial Valley water usage was cut to 1.5-million-acre feet annually you would lower the minimum release from Mead to 7.5-million-acre feet. It looks like in a typical year Mead gets around 1-million-acre feet of inflow from sources other than Powell. This would create a situation where an annual release of just 6.5-million-acre feet from Powell would be a breakeven year. Probably more like 7-million-acre feet given evaporation.

So, what would it cost? I found some information that net cash farm income in the Imperial valley was around $700 million annually. That’s higher than their actual net income but we will use that number to keep it simple. So, buying out half the imperial valley farms would mean buying businesses with $350 million in annual income. Typical multipliers for a farm business are 2.0 to 4.5 times earnings. Let’s be generous and go with 5 times earnings for a purchase price. That costs $1.75 billon. A lot of money, sure, but the USDA spends $200 billion annually. I would imagine the Colorado river basin states could kick in some cash as well. This seems doable and would have a major impact of providing some long-term stability for the Colorado River water supply situation.

Also, note the politics would be tricky likely requiring some legislation in California and potential use of eminent domain but in the end you would be paying the current farm owners a more than fair price to solve a problem affecting millions of people.
 
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