August 24 Month Study is out and slightly worse than the July one, probably given the nonsoon so far.
“Most Probable” has an end of April elevation of 3519, which would be a tad worse than the record low in 2023.
But there is of course large uncertainty. “Minimum Probable” is a very scary 3507 in April, while “Maximum Probable” only gets to a low of 3540 in February before starting to rise.
Of course releases could also change if the situation is desperate.
NPS says it is good for lake levels of 3529 and above.
Lake Powell Water Database says minimum safe 3529 and absolute minimum useable 3527.
EDIT: Those are the elevations for using the concrete ramp extension poured in April 2022 when the lake level was 3523 and they poured to just above the water line. For smaller craft the NPS did put down temporary steel plates in 2023 which allowed for “launch at your own risk” down to around 3520 I believe.
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