Minimum Lake Level for Marinas

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Rivered said:
Just my opinion & 2 cents... if you live in the southwest and both lakes fall to dead pool I wouldn't be worried about what to do with your boats or marinas as much as what to do with your homes-property values will plummet & we'll all be moving back east...I'd like to think at some point in the near future common sense will prevail... the river will be managed efficiently & better than now...
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Is James Harlow available to lead the wagon train back to the east?? (John Candy's character in Wagon's East )
 
Great post, and I’ll have more to say once I get home from Utah. Just got off the lake today, and definitely have a few firsthand observations related to the topic. One thing seems certain—this past week is the fewest boats I’ve ever seen on the lake between Bullfrog and Escalante in mid-August, which is when I usually go every year. I mean, dead next to nothing. No boats at all below the Escalante. I counted 7 houseboats tied up in the Escalante, none beyond the big beach (except us), none in any canyon from MM 68 up to Iceberg, where there might have been 5 or so. A couple more in the Slick Rock vicinity and that’s it. Almost no traffic, and most of that was day tripping wake boats. Rentals almost nil. On the one hand, I loved that, but…

That pattern is relevant because it feels like people are just afraid of what low water means, and they’re making other plans. Bullfrog feels empty, dock workers are looking for things to do. This does not bode well for the future of recreation, the economics of which friend on people being there…

Adding to that, the NPS and Aramark are warning renters that they will not rescue you below the Escalante without paying $249/hour plus expenses like gas, a massive discouragement for most, and it’s having its intended effect. In general, Powell’s recreational “dead zone” is now between West Canyon and the Escalante. If lake levels drop, and access becomes worse, these trends will accelerate. As a renter, I can manage because I don’t own a boat, and the rentals (for now) have lake access.

Recreation is not the management priority at the lake, nor has it ever been, but if we hit dead pool, it will effectively become the only real economic activity left, an ironic thought.

We’ll see what happens over the next couple years, but what seems clear for now is that shifting conditions at Lake Powell are shifting human behavior…
 
JFRCalifornia said:
Great post, and I’ll have more to say once I get home from Utah. Just got off the lake today, and definitely have a few firsthand observations related to the topic. One thing seems certain—this past week is the fewest boats I’ve ever seen on the lake between Bullfrog and Escalante in mid-August, which is when I usually go every year. I mean, dead next to nothing. No boats at all below the Escalante. I counted 7 houseboats tied up in the Escalante, none beyond the big beach (except us), none in any canyon from MM 68 up to Iceberg, where there might have been 5 or so. A couple more in the Slick Rock vicinity and that’s it. Almost no traffic, and most of that was day tripping wake boats. Rentals almost nil. On the one hand, I loved that, but…

That pattern is relevant because it feels like people are just afraid of what low water means, and they’re making other plans. Bullfrog feels empty, dock workers are looking for things to do. This does not bode well for the future of recreation, the economics of which friend on people being there…

Adding to that, the NPS and Aramark are warning renters that they will not rescue you below the Escalante without paying $249/hour plus expenses like gas, a massive discouragement for most, and it’s having its intended effect. In general, Powell’s recreational “dead zone” is now between West Canyon and the Escalante. If lake levels drop, and access becomes worse, these trends will accelerate. As a renter, I can manage because I don’t own a boat, and the rentals (for now) have lake access.

Recreation is not the management priority at the lake, nor has it ever been, but if we hit dead pool, it will effectively become the only real economic activity left, an ironic thought.

We’ll see what happens over the next couple years, but what seems clear for now is that shifting conditions at Lake Powell are shifting human behavior…
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Great update! Interesting about the crowds or lack of I should say. I’ll be on the lake Friday through Monday this weekend launching out of APM and haven’t decided how far north I’ll go. Last September I did APM to CID so thinking I’ll stay more south this time. I’m curious about the crowds. I’m expecting it to be busy until I round the corner by Last Chance. I was on the lake in July of 22 and between Rock Creek and RB I didn’t see another boat. The news and social media paint a poor picture of conditions at Powell. I’m going to explore Padre Bay a little more. Of all the times I’ve been to Powell I haven’t spent much time in those canyons but I’m expecting crowds so may not stay long. I heard face canyon currently has a nice beach landing and hike into a slot, may check that out. Also want to go to the end of Last Chance, never been up there at all. I may also explore a bit around Dangling Rope on both sides of the lake but not go as far as RB.
 
Just got off the lake and wanted to share a few observations. We run a bow rider (not a wake boat) with a 47-gallon tank, and the loss of Dangling Rope really hit us this trip. We’re old school and still love to actually water ski—which feels like a rarity these days—so gas planning became a bigger deal.

We went up to San Juan a couple of times, and past Dangling Rope it was absolute solitude. The canyons are as quiet and beautiful as ever, but you definitely feel more exposed—if you have trouble, you’re in trouble. We actually had to help out a group that blew an impeller, drove them out to get cell service, and then they had to arrange a long-distance tow.

On the flip side, it was striking how packed the lower bays were—houseboats bumper to bumper in some areas. But weekdays were surprisingly calm, almost eerily so, and business in general felt way down.

All in all, the closing of Dangling Rope has its pros and cons. It was definitely missed by us, especially for the peace of mind with gas. That said, I’ve got to give a big shout-out to Antelope Point—the service there was fantastic.
 
mobius481 said:
Lake Powell Water Database has Stateline Aux down to 3502? I was actually thinking it was lower than that. Is 3524 the correct elevation? That would mean no ramp on the south side under 3524' elevation? Doesn't sound right.
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I think that was as far as the crews got placing the precast concrete panels down while they were chasing the receding water last time. It would make sense that they could only operate so far out into the water but I think that if we see those levels come back they the'll be out there again chasing the receding grade. As memory serves it was 3450 where the would have to stop extending, where they would run out if grade.
 
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Maybe this is another thread, but I really don't understand how the changing (low) water levels would reduce the amount of use of the lake by the private/shared ownership houseboats. Rentals make sense.

Do the news stories really scare people off from using the lake that they have made a significant investment into, both with the initial purchase of their share plus their annual dues?

If that was the case I feel like there would be a glut of shares listed for sale (I watch what's available and I haven't seen an increase) or a lot of people defaulting on their yearly financial commitment (again, I feel like that is something other owners would be complaining about on social media yet they are not).

We did one of our annual trips around Independence Day, and while the lake south of Escalante was quiet, as soon as we reached Rincon it seemed as/more busy than our prior years. FWIW, we have been doing one trip this time of year for probably 20 years now. Much longer if you consider that was a annual vacation with my folks growing up.

I still think that reduction in service levels up north has just as much to do with lower use (if that is the case) than water levels. Especially when talking about those that rely on the rental boats or people hoping to use the campgrounds/RV park/hotels.
 
Toohot2 said:
would it be catastrophic for the grid for both dams to stop producing power, Powell first then Boulder.
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No, both dams do produce useful power but there is so much more happening now with the grid and many other power supplies that there is not any sort of national security risk if they don't produce power.

The water control and delivery to CA, AZ, NM is much more critical.
 
bk2drvr said:
Does a national security risk provide BOR with decision power we don't fully understand? BOR did an emergency release of upper basin water at 3520 back in 2022. To me this speaks volumes as to where the priority is. 30' from minimum power pool is a scary place to be apparently for the BOR. I hate to say it but I think we are going to get the answers to these questions that none of us on
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I thought this was a really good point. It's hard for everyone including BOR I think to wrap our heads around the dam not being able to generate power. I think it would be impossible not to call the dropping lake level a crisis at the point. Under an Emergency what can be done?

In my mind, even if they empty every reservoir upstream and choke outflows to a minimum as we saw in the past it only buys time on power production. Powell is the gate valve, a way to measure exactly what the upper basin states sent down stream. The System that the lower states are concerned about is Hoover Dam and the means of delivery that lie downstream in the smaller reservoirs. To me BOR will be in a real pickle, no choice but to open Glen Canyons internal tunnels and send water to Mead if we don't get some healthy inflow. If meads turbines run dry so do the means of delivery downstream as there is no other way to get water through Hoover. Plus the unacceptability and the optics of the Grand Canyon running dry would make it an imperative to open the internal tunnels.

When I asked a ranking Aramark manager in 22 if the marina could sustain another bad year of inflow part of his answer was "Do you know how much money this place makes? THEY won't let that happen!" He seemed kind of upset that I would bring it up and I don't think he'd thought about it too hard. As I've said before I was left a little unsettled wondering who these "they" were and what kind of power over the weather they had? Maybe BOR is the "they" and they do have some more tricks up their sleeve but in the end if there is no fluid above the inlets to ride gravity down the turbines will not spin.
It's going to get interesting if providence does not bestow on us another rescue in the form of good inflow over the next two years.

Thanks everyone for a great discussion, fingers crossed for this winter and cooperative spring conditions conducive to a good inflow, we need it.
 
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If we are discussing what BOR might do, there already is an agreement from 2024 as to what to do through 2026:


BOR can release as little as 6 MAF from Lake Powell based on that agreement as the minimum power pool elevation approaches. Meanwhile, the lower basin states eventually have to conserve more if as a result Lake Mead’s elevation becomes too low (which it almost certainly would).

To date, the lowest BOR has released was 7 MAF in 2022. So they can turn the spigot down a whole 1 MAF more than they did back in the panic times of 2022 if they need to.

For reference 1 MAF equates to an additional 21 feet of elevation above minimum power pool, while 1.48 MAF (the difference between current releases and the minimum of 6 MAF) equates to 30 feet of elevation above minimum power pool.

So that’s a pretty significant knob that BOR has the ability to turn if needed…

Unfortunately, recently inflow has been lower than 6 MAF multiple years. So if BOR turns the knob as low as the current agreement allows the lake level would still drop. This year will only be about 4.8 MAF of inflow. 2018, 2021, and 2022 were all below 6 MAF as well.

What happens if next year we only get 4 MAF like happened in 2021 while BOR releases 6 MAF? Then end of September 2026 the lake would be at about 3512 still. Alternatively, if BOR still releases 7.48 then it would be just about right at 3490 (minimum power pool). And of course there would be a full winter’s decline ahead at that point.

Past WY2026 there will be the new agreement currently being worked on. Additionally, we’ve already seen the drought operations agreement get revised multiple times as things have gotten worse. It each case, more pain was applied to water users to keep both Powell and Mead not only generating power, but comfortably above minimum power pools.
 
DVexile said:
If we are discussing what BOR might do, there already is an agreement from 2024 as to what to do through 2026:


BOR can release as little as 6 MAF from Lake Powell based on that agreement as the minimum power pool elevation approaches. Meanwhile, the lower basin states eventually have to conserve more if as a result Lake Mead’s elevation becomes too low (which it almost certainly would).

To date, the lowest BOR has released was 7 MAF in 2022. So they can turn the spigot down a whole 1 MAF more than they did back in the panic times of 2022 if they need to.

For reference 1 MAF equates to an additional 21 feet of elevation above minimum power pool, while 1.48 MAF (the difference between current releases and the minimum of 6 MAF) equates to 30 feet of elevation above minimum power pool.

So that’s a pretty significant knob that BOR has the ability to turn if needed…

Unfortunately, recently inflow has been lower than 6 MAF multiple years. So if BOR turns the knob as low as the current agreement allows the lake level would still drop. This year will only be about 4.8 MAF of inflow. 2018, 2021, and 2022 were all below 6 MAF as well.

What happens if next year we only get 4 MAF like happened in 2021 while BOR releases 6 MAF? Then end of September 2026 the lake would be at about 3512 still. Alternatively, if BOR still releases 7.48 then it would be just about right at 3490 (minimum power pool). And of course there would be a full winter’s decline ahead at that point.

Past WY2026 there will be the new agreement currently being worked on. Additionally, we’ve already seen the drought operations agreement get revised multiple times as things have gotten worse. It each case, more pain was applied to water users to keep both Powell and Mead not only generating power, but comfortably above minimum power pools.
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Great news, good data. What do you think 3490 would mean for say Wahweap Marina, where is the bottom?
 
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From our friendly stats website provider the current count of af above LP even with such a rotten monsoon season and poor runoff is:

List Totals2025-08-2110,344,6407,561,22873.09 %

7.5maf is not peanuts, even if 3/4 of that is spoken for and cannot be released downstream in case of emergency that's still a significant chunk of water available. Yes, I'm sure they don't want to let it go if they don't have to (it's likely better to keep it where it is cooler anyways) but it is there.
 
flowerbug said:
7.5maf is not peanuts, even if 3/4 of that is spoken for and cannot be released downstream in case of emergency that's still a significant chunk of water available. Yes, I'm sure they don't want to let it go if they don't have to (it's likely better to keep it where it is cooler anyways) but it is there.
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Great point! For reference, in Nov 2022 they had let that get down to 5.5 MAF. So assuming they are willing to go at least as low again, that’s 2 MAF that can make up for missing inflow.
 
I found these images from the early days of Wahweap Marina when the lake was filling. From them you can get some idea of how things could look topography wise if water levels were to keep dropping
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Post Card of Wahweap Marina in the very early days, maybe 64 or 65. We could see the old ramp and "Gilligan's Island" like this once again soonIMG_7092.jpeg
I think this is the original first building of the present hotel with Wahweap Launch Ramp and Marina in the background. It looks like we are near this level right now with the island about to crest again


IMG_7095.jpegThe Dam as it was first filling in the early days, maybe spring of 63
Screenshot 2025-08-23 at 4.55.04 AM.jpeg
This is an image from NAU Cline Library and it's not labeled other than under Art Greene but you can see docks laid out waiting for the water to rise. I'm not sure where it is, if it's anywhere near the preset marina I do not know. You can see Castle Rock and a road in the background. Anyway a picture of the bottom of Wahweap Bay
 
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Excellent pics, as usual! Great for reference.....esp Gilligan's island...where's Mary Ann?? :unsure:

Also Love the little blue Dorsett Catalina being towed by the camper in the first photo... :love:

Looking at all those cars....makes ya wonder if folks were complaining about 'crowds' back then....😋
 
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