Lake Level rapidly rising!

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for the big years it seems that positive inflow, or lake level rise ends mid July? Snowpack and SWE is way higher for this time of the year compared to the last 7 years. 4.21 compared to 0.1 in 2018 to 0.982 in 2017. I would guess that this means filling everything up above and possibly a longer positive inflow or rising water-levels at Powell possibly until August?
Not sure about historical snowpack/swe data? I am really hung up on those data. But the amount this year for this time of the year seems really off the chart for the past 30 years? Unfortunately those charts do not show anything prior to 1986. Seeing 1983 and 84 in those charts would be a great comparison. https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/co/snow/products/?cid=nrcs144p2_063327
 
I know some you love seeing the data so here are inflows by year in acre feet. As you can see, it is a good year but certainly not near the best.

water_yearinflows_0415_to_0619inflows_1001_to_0619inflows_all_water_year
20194,709,8257,301,2597,301,259
20181,675,2384,502,0405,390,005
20174,993,5138,716,00611,357,980
20164,100,4927,322,5539,923,034
20153,335,2346,562,7169,398,546
20144,159,2726,582,8769,278,586
20131,789,1193,646,5615,265,636
20121,404,2545,106,4066,068,614
20115,736,0418,884,48116,295,695
20103,473,2536,407,9788,797,466
20094,352,1467,116,64510,114,904
20085,257,5348,808,98812,411,560
20072,471,7526,354,3918,082,056
20063,486,1376,667,8378,711,124
20055,048,5308,212,79811,365,985
20041,845,5324,179,5635,634,861
20032,553,0904,663,3526,270,064
2002921,9523,119,9394,046,090
20012,732,4015,301,7256,848,034
20003,005,7536,549,2288,116,336
19993,666,5887,702,98112,412,056
19985,002,81410,433,62013,920,073
19976,631,13911,260,94916,220,659
19964,123,4558,448,59011,362,290
19954,597,1437,646,28414,991,978
19942,784,7046,231,3777,772,743
19935,884,4589,403,30613,188,527
19922,772,9825,878,2597,689,188
19912,590,4015,168,3817,450,899
19901,492,7563,743,3825,239,895
19891,866,9994,670,6166,060,829
19882,605,7716,535,2988,563,356
19874,635,80411,424,65014,226,803
19866,344,75912,830,36418,397,353
19857,246,48214,028,58018,207,891
19848,550,59514,487,83421,649,327
19836,381,34610,970,40819,989,592
19823,832,9007,143,57811,325,812
19811,766,0374,964,8926,544,020
19805,797,9379,846,75413,182,498
19796,197,82110,342,33414,635,467
19783,802,5436,358,4459,693,849
19771,062,4224,329,3605,609,762
19762,926,8516,848,5288,930,586
19754,124,1797,780,01112,832,710
19743,793,1918,228,06610,520,855
19735,666,95510,633,77715,640,802
19722,712,0057,031,1958,966,745
19713,441,6307,997,52111,628,473
19704,223,5088,393,28712,291,706
19694,241,3068,515,61911,823,322
19683,548,3606,794,68910,302,139
19672,391,4485,292,8918,420,746
19662,700,0527,630,0539,104,873
19654,783,5108,411,85414,299,055
19642,856,7974,741,9097,278,408
 
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David Fordham said:
I know some you love seeing the data so here are inflows by year in acre feet. As you can see, it is a good year but certainly not near the best.

water_yearinflows_0415_to_0619inflows_1001_to_0619inflows_all_water_year
20194,709,8257,301,2597,301,259
20181,675,2384,502,0405,390,005
20174,993,5138,716,00611,357,980
20164,100,4927,322,5539,923,034
20153,335,2346,562,7169,398,546
20144,159,2726,582,8769,278,586
20131,789,1193,646,5615,265,636
20121,404,2545,106,4066,068,614
20115,736,0418,884,48116,295,695
20103,473,2536,407,9788,797,466
20094,352,1467,116,64510,114,904
20085,257,5348,808,98812,411,560
20072,471,7526,354,3918,082,056
20063,486,1376,667,8378,711,124
20055,048,5308,212,79811,365,985
20041,845,5324,179,5635,634,861
20032,553,0904,663,3526,270,064
2002921,9523,119,9394,046,090
20012,732,4015,301,7256,848,034
20003,005,7536,549,2288,116,336
19993,666,5887,702,98112,412,056
19985,002,81410,433,62013,920,073
19976,631,13911,260,94916,220,659
19964,123,4558,448,59011,362,290
19954,597,1437,646,28414,991,978
19942,784,7046,231,3777,772,743
19935,884,4589,403,30613,188,527
19922,772,9825,878,2597,689,188
19912,590,4015,168,3817,450,899
19901,492,7563,743,3825,239,895
19891,866,9994,670,6166,060,829
19882,605,7716,535,2988,563,356
19874,635,80411,424,65014,226,803
19866,344,75912,830,36418,397,353
19857,246,48214,028,58018,207,891
19848,550,59514,487,83421,649,327
19836,381,34610,970,40819,989,592
19823,832,9007,143,57811,325,812
19811,766,0374,964,8926,544,020
19805,797,9379,846,75413,182,498
19796,197,82110,342,33414,635,467
19783,802,5436,358,4459,693,849
19771,062,4224,329,3605,609,762
19762,926,8516,848,5288,930,586
19754,124,1797,780,01112,832,710
19743,793,1918,228,06610,520,855
19735,666,95510,633,77715,640,802
19722,712,0057,031,1958,966,745
19713,441,6307,997,52111,628,473
19704,223,5088,393,28712,291,706
19694,241,3068,515,61911,823,322
19683,548,3606,794,68910,302,139
19672,391,4485,292,8918,420,746
19662,700,0527,630,0539,104,873
19654,783,5108,411,85414,299,055
19642,856,7974,741,9097,278,408
Click to expand...
David, your chart really puts this years flows into perspective - basically this year (to date) doesn't stand out much at all when compared to all of the years. Thanks for posting. What we would do for a 1968 -1987 twenty year flow period! Wow. -Doug
 
David Fordham said:
The last was May 10th. I would imagine soon since peak runoff is about over so I expect some kind of estimate for the rest of the year and going forward.

Glen Canyon Dam | Water Operations | UC Region | Bureau of Reclamation

Bureau of Reclamation - Managing water and power in the West
www.usbr.gov www.usbr.gov
Click to expand...


David,

Looks like they just updated it yesterday, nice guess on the timing. ;)

Excerpt from the report "Based on the current forecast, the June 24-Month Study projects Lake Powell elevation will end water year 2019 near 3,620.77 feet with approximately 13.85 maf in storage (57 percent of capacity) "
 
One thing everyone is overlooking is that this year has been unusually colder in the mountains and there is still snow where there shouldn't be for the middle of June. Example, here in Hanksville, on Saturday our high is supposed to be only 70 degrees with rain, and that is at least 20 degrees below our normal highs for this time of year. It has been a SLOW snow run off this year compared to past years.

I am seeing the run-off happening but I think there is going to be more run-off than people expect. Maybe when temps rise to where they normally are.

But on another note, I was at Hite Outpost yesterday and talked with Maggie & Tony. They said there is a place in Farley's Canyon to launch a boat right now. I did not confirm it myself :( but they were just down there checking on it this week they said.
 
Pegasus said:
David, your chart really puts this years flows into perspective - basically this year (to date) doesn't stand out much at all when compared to all of the years. Thanks for posting. What we would do for a 1968 -1987 twenty year flow period! Wow. -Doug
Click to expand...


This is going to be a great year! Because the flows were delayed so much it’s not as relevant to the other good years due to the late spring. I’m guessing we’ll be right there with 2011...3630!
 
Dave I. said:
Last sentence in the report...."The actual end of water year 2019 system storage may vary from this projection, primarily due to uncertainty regarding this season’s runoff and reservoir inflow."

Sounds to me like they are not even sure how much snow is in those mountains.
Click to expand...
Too many factors to make a very accurate prediction 3 months in advance.
 
Chico Beach said:
This is going to be a great year! Because the flows were delayed so much it’s not as relevant to the other good years due to the late spring. I’m guessing we’ll be right there with 2011...3630!
Click to expand...

Well, I am looking at the data more closely and I added an inflows chart. During the runoff (04/15 to 07/31) for 2011, inflows to Powell were over 11 maf. So far this year we are at 4.8 maf so 2011 looks to be pretty far out of reach unless we get some sort of tropical storm to just dump and dump on the 4 corners and western slope.


5343

David
 
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