Lake Level rapidly rising!

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My first years at the lake were 82, 83, and 84. My impression, having no interweb to contradict, was that those levels were normal(y)
 
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Powell and Mead have still plenty of room, no question. And there was a Colorado River once that ended up in the Sea of Cortez. This time it might not be an experiment? https://blog.nationalgeographic.org...eunion-the-colorado-river-returns-to-the-sea/ and that 1998 year that is mentioned in that National Geographic blog that the Colorado reached the sea is not even in those top 5 record years JFRCalifornia has mentioned.
The main concern is obviously everything upstream, every feeding river out of that watershed. Almost 1,000% of snowpack does sound like an awful lot of snow with precip already above average if that is regular rain feeding from that watershed into the basin? I always try to visualize and that 10 foot snowbank is now 100 feet which has to go somewhere.
 
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It cooled off considerably last weekend (we had snow in Pinedale), which explains the drop in discharge. As has been stated, the ridiculous snowpack numbers need to be taken with a huge grain of salt, since it is so late in the snowpack year. That being said, lots of water still coming. USBR now projecting 12 million acre feet to lake Powell!
 
Dorado said:
It cooled off considerably last weekend (we had snow in Pinedale), which explains the drop in discharge. As has been stated, the ridiculous snowpack numbers need to be taken with a huge grain of salt, since it is so late in the snowpack year. That being said, lots of water still coming. USBR now projecting 12 million acre feet to lake Powell!
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Is USBR projecting 12 million acre feet inflow for the whole year? Or just for the major spring runoff? If it's just for the spring/summer, and they release what they had previously planned to do in the summer (3.5-4 MAF), then the net volume increase of 7.5-8 MAF would be the most ever in one season (1979 has the record net volume spring/summer increase of 7.48 MAF). And a 7.5-8 MAF increase translates to a peak volume of 16.5-17 MAF... which is a lake level of 3640-3645...

On the other hand, if they mean 12 MAF for the whole year, and they release 9 MAF for the whole year as planned, the net 3 MAF rise only leaves the lake at 3605--hard to believe that's going to be true...
 
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A 50 rise prediction from the government.

Hadn’t seen that before

‘That will put so much water into the Colorado River that Lake Powell, a giant reservoir downstream in Utah and Arizona, is expected to rise 50 feet (15 meters) this year, said Marlon Duke, a spokesman for the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, which manages Powell and dozens of other reservoirs.’

From A Denver TV station article https://www.9news.com/mobile/articl...ivers/73-1ed9b508-bc5c-4120-a16a-1cbc38a837ad
 
JFRCalifornia said:
Right, no question--those two years were off the charts. In those two years, the inflow from April through August was on the order of 15 million acre feet (MAF) each year, but because the lake was pretty much full already, over 10 MAF was released during each summer! If we had that kind of inflow this year, using this year's outflow amounts (normal summer releases, in conformance with an normal protocol), the net inflow would have been 11.2 MAF, instead of the 4-5 MAF it actually was in 1983-84.

Using the April 2019 starting point of 3568, if you add 11.2 MAF, you'd end up with a lake level of at about 3670, or a 102-foot rise! I don't think we'll see anything quite like that this year, but it will still be impressive...
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I remember the mid-1980s. The water was so high on the Wahweap ramp that there was virtually no ramp. It was incredibly easy to load a houseboat and launch a satellite boat. Fortunately in those days there were a lot fewer houseboats and a lot less boat traffic in general. I cannot imagine those lake elevations with the crowds today. A single 2019 surf boat could swamp the restaurant and gift shop at Wahweap Lodge. :cool:

I believe we hit 3702 back then. It was truely amazing.
 
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Mr Jimmy said:
Hey All

Great reading all around is " The Emerald Mile " by Kevin Fedarko. Massive runoff during the 83,84 year. Running the Grand Canyon At over 100,000cfs. Fun read !
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Let me echo this post. That book is an amazing read. He talks a lot about the history of the river, how and why the dam was built where it was, the operation of the dam and what was happening in the backup discharge tunnels during the huge run off.

My schedule hasn't allowed me to visit my favorite place on earth for a few years, but this runoff year may make me call in sick for a week of mental health rehab.
 
Im so glad to see I'm not the only one obsessed with watching the water level every day. I just got back from a great couple days of striper fishing and cant believe how much it has changed since I was there 3 weeks ago. I'm blessed to only be less than 3 hrs away. Thanks for everyone's input on this topic!
 
You're all my kindred spirits. I've been tracking lake levels daily and logging them into a spreadsheet since 2004 with a 15 year overlay graph. Glad to see that I'm not so unique! For today, there has only been one year (2004) on my chart with a lower water level - and the water level was already going down that year thanks to a very low water year. I expect that by the middle of July, there will only be one year on my chart with a higher water elevation (2011). I don't think that we will level out until at least the second week in August. It's a great year to be a Lake Powell enthusiast.
Bonus: The Zebra muscles should all be below us by the end of this month and we won't see them again until several weeks after the leveling out.
 
I would be happy with enough water to launch all winter from bullfrog. I am still a lake powell boot, but I would like to spend at least thirty days out on the water between Oct - May 10th. I was able to two years ago, but the executive ramp was a little to crowded in April-May. I would be willng to do a rain dance in a speedo if I thought it would help. It would probably only provide some comic relief to the raven and scare some of the house boaters though.
 
This weekend we anchored the boats off of a pennisula south of Camel Rock that will be an island this week. It was fun to camp in the middle of the lake which we would never due when it is an island. As Wayne cautioned, you really need to put your beach gear well away from the water's edge, the overnight horizontal water change is amazing.
 
JFRCalifornia said:
Right, no question--those two years were off the charts. In those two years, the inflow from April through August was on the order of 15 million acre feet (MAF) each year, but because the lake was pretty much full already, over 10 MAF was released during each summer! If we had that kind of inflow this year, using this year's outflow amounts (normal summer releases, in conformance with an normal protocol), the net inflow would have been 11.2 MAF, instead of the 4-5 MAF it actually was in 1983-84.

Using the April 2019 starting point of 3568, if you add 11.2 MAF, you'd end up with a lake level of at about 3670, or a 102-foot rise! I don't think we'll see anything quite like that this year, but it will still be impressive...
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The USBR June 24 Month Study shows regulated inflow to LP of 12.4 maf, and releases 9.0 maf for 2019 water year. That's based on watershed data for the end of May. And the peak level of about 3622.
 
Well, it was inevitable but it looks like the flows into Powell are beginning to slow :( Maybe cooler temps have temporarily slowed things and the lower releases from Blue Mesa and Navajo might be a weekend thing. I sure hope so as I love getting up early to see Powell has risen 1.xx feet from the day before...
 
David Fordham said:
Well, it was inevitable but it looks like the flows into Powell are beginning to slow :( Maybe cooler temps have temporarily slowed things and the lower releases from Blue Mesa and Navajo might be a weekend thing. I sure hope so as I love getting up early to see Powell has risen 1.xx feet from the day before...
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Animas dropped big yesterday in Durango. Afternoon thunderstorms are a thing past few days but I do believe the peak has come and gone from the San Juan drainage. Still lots of snow so it should maintain a good flow for weeks to come.
 
Inflows have definitely peaked and are coming down. What a great water year and lets hope for the same or better next year. With everything above Powell near full this year, a heavy snowpack next year will go straight into Powell (and then Mead). We get the next 2 years like this one, both Mead and Powell will be near full!
 
David Fordham said:
Inflows have definitely peaked and are coming down. What a great water year and lets hope for the same or better next year. With everything above Powell near full this year, a heavy snowpack next year will go straight into Powell (and then Mead). We get the next 2 years like this one, both Mead and Powell will be near full!
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What do you look at to determine that they have peaked? I have always looked at the total inflow number into LP but I am guessing you can look at the individual rivers to get a better idea. Is that what you are referring to? Looks like total inflow yesterday was the highest in previous 14 days.
 
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