How much do we expect the lake to rise this spring/summer

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Havalina said:
As far as global warming is concerned, it is a reality. There is no trying to slow it down or stop it.
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Nope, I don't agree with that at all. If you actually look at what has been accomplished and continues to pay off each day you'd not be so pessimistic. However, in the past few half dozen years the bitcoin miners and the new data center rediculousness has pretty much eaten a lot of the gains that were made. It's dumb and ignorant to think that compound interest won't be paid for the damage we're doing at present, but it really could be a lot worse.

I'll leave it at this. I'm sorry your rants and dreams are different than what the facts do show... The future will show that we squandered a lot of gains for a bunch of greedy people who couldn't be a bit more patient and do things in a more gradual way that didn't chew up so many resources. If you scale back the greed and destruction the world could have a much better chance of not being a bad place.
 
HMaea said:
The BOR talks about boosting Lake Powell by 54 feet. This surge from Flaming Gorge will add maybe a foot. Where does the rest come from?
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Much of it comes from not releasing water from Lake Powell. They will be releasing 1.5 Maf less from Powell this summer than originally planned for the water year. In addition they are releasing more from FG spread over many months, a good chunk of it after the summer recreation season is over. This most recent high flow from FG is fairly short and for fishery management as much as water delivery.

Also, for clarity, the lake isn’t going to actually rise 54 ft, it will just fall 54 ft less than it would have without the changes to Powell and FG releases.
 
I really don't understand how all this is likely to work out. The big reservoirs Mead and Powell are way below the long term averages for content. FG is now slightly below average for the date and the big releases are only helping to keep Powell from dropping recently. We have a heat wave moving into the region that is predicted to be lengthy and a snowpack that is below average. I have followed this stuff for a long time including formal education, albeit a long time ago. Mead has to keep Havasu fed to boot. Time to at least be very concerned IMHO.
 
flowerbug said:
Not only are they being vocal they've actually been doing something about it and are making pretty good progress. As the 4th or 5th largest economy in the world they've made a nice dent in their CO2 emissions and other pollutants - yes they still have a ways to go but I give them credit for what they've already accomplished. They've also made good progress in dealing with their groundwater withdrawals and working on bringing things back in balance - this is a very important thing to the Colorado River Basin and the Colorado River and Lake Powell because if they do get their ground water issues figured out, every bit of improvement means somewhat less pressure on the Colorado River. The more flexibility they have means that some years they may be able to take less...
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I agree China uses twice as much electricity as the US and India use half as much electricity as the US. Yet both countries populations are four times larger that the US. Both countries are building renewable energy. With China the leader in wind solar and EV's. While we pause or delay build renewable energy a 6 GW solar farm was cancel in AZ because a politician didn't like it. That's about the power of six nuclear plants. California has the largest population but uses a third of the electricity that Texas uses. Too Texas credit there utilities are all in on wind and solar generating more of each than any other state. Yet after the Texas grid went down during the big freeze and China banned cryptocurrency miners there. A politician. welcomed the China miners to come to Texas saying it would make the grid more stable. They came and when peak demand hit these miners were asked to lower there electricity consumption doing that they receive millions of dollars for using less electricity. Ridiculous and it's because we listen to politicians instead of the engineers and scientists.
 
CATD8RII said:
Its more than for California, but California and Imperial valley are easy to point a finger at,,,,, and conserving is a priority,regardless if its too little too late. All these lake from Flaming Gorge down through Powell to Lake Havasu were all built for controlling water during floods and during drought for irrigation and domestic use. Recreation is just a side bonus that was created. And thats what all these lakes are doing right now,,, as designed. Is it tragic? You bet! Are we all showering only once a week, and turn the shower off while scrubbing only to turn it back on to rinse? Shutting the water off while washing our hands? Not washing our cars? Not watering our lawns? Or are we all sitting back saying no the domestic use is not the problem, it doesn't use the much water. If so that really is a problem too. Because that would be conserving. Now the 1922 waterpak comes into play because back then reality is no one really was as concerned or interested in using that water but IID. They acted on it. But now every one wants it so blame them for the problem. Even our own damn state does. But LA Hollywood and San Diego still get theirs, as does Phoenix Tuscon and Vegas.
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It's not about recreation it was about generating electricity. The recreation was a bonus.
 
HMaea said:
I’m not sure where to find these other threads, but going back and reading this one more carefully I think what I’m getting is that this current FG release is more about simulating a flood to trigger fish growth, hence the short duration. So presumably the releases intended to shore up Lake Powell levels will come at a later time and be of a greater scope.

Anyway, thanks for the helpful response.
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I don't see where we would get a flood from FG water release or how it would trigger fish growth.
 
DVexile said:
www.usbr.gov

Newsroom | Bureau of Reclamation

Bureau of Reclamation
www.usbr.gov www.usbr.gov

Already posted just two pages back.
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I reread your post and from the other BOR newsletter from 2022 I guess I thought it was discussing increasing water to help Lake Powell. I guess I was more focused on what they were doing about keeping the lights now than the issue with the fish. I agree that is important also. were losing a lot of species of plants and animals every year.
 
realitycheck said:
I really don't understand how all this is likely to work out. The big reservoirs Mead and Powell are way below the long term averages for content. FG is now slightly below average for the date and the big releases are only helping to keep Powell from dropping recently. We have a heat wave moving into the region that is predicted to be lengthy and a snowpack that is below average. I have followed this stuff for a long time including formal education, albeit a long time ago. Mead has to keep Havasu fed to boot. Time to at least be very concerned IMHO.
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I think the Flaming Gorge releases and reduction in Glen Canyon Dam releases is planned to solve the problem for the next year.

The part I am unclear about is if they have any plan for another dry winter next year.
 
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RichieW13 said:
I think the Flaming Gorge releases and reduction in Glen Canyon Dam releases is planned to solve the problem for the next year.

The part I am unclear about is if they have any plan for another dry winter next year.
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Unless the weather changes soon this year how can this happen? Flaming Gorge, a reservoir with roughly three million acre feet of capacity is expected to keep two massive downstream reservoirs fed to a workable level in hot dry conditions? Look at the content of those reservoirs currently. They are terribly below normal levels for the date. One should never say never but unless something changes we are asking for a near miracle. The Feds may have to act regardless of the sentiments of many folks in the region.
 
RichieW13 said:
I think the Flaming Gorge releases and reduction in Glen Canyon Dam releases is planned to solve the problem for the next year.

The part I am unclear about is if they have any plan for another dry winter next year.
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I don't think there is a long term strategy, that should have been in place years ago, we all knew this would happen, at least the braintrust of this site knew it was coming. Next year, without dropping the flow by 50%, recreation and electricity from Powell will be a thing in the past............I certainly hope not though.
 
Cookie said:
I don't think there is a long term strategy, that should have been in place years ago, we all knew this would happen, at least the braintrust of this site knew it was coming. Next year, without dropping the flow by 50%, recreation and electricity from Powell will be a thing in the past............I certainly hope not though.
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I don't think so, either. Our hyper-local water managers have made it plain that we'll all (municipalities+ag) will limp through this year, but if the snow pack next year is as dismal as this one, "all bets are off." I have some sympathy; they're trying to think their way though the unthinkable. I imagine the BoR could push as much water as is left out of Flaming Gorge, Blue Mesa... and anywhere else they have control for the next water year... but there will eventually be an end point w/o the muther of all high snow productive winters. I'm watching local reservoirs drained to mudflats to reduce surface evaporation by warehousing the water in deeper reservoirs. Whatever recreation those smaller bodies might have supported (to say nothing of aquatic life) has simply vaporized.
 
BartsPlace said:
The thread you're posting this to is "How much do we expect the lake to rise this spring/summer?" So, no, you're not following the rules.
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How much do we expect the lake to rise this spring/summer is under Lake Powell Issues and the Lake level this spring and summer seems like an issue or a problem.
 
Hoping to get back on topic:
  • They have begun to turn off the tap at FG as of this morning. Releases will step down over the next few days until Thursday when things will be back to “normal”.
  • The beginning of the FG release reached Lake Powell in the past few days resulting in a very small rise so far. The inflow will continue to increase for a few days. Things should stay green for at least ten more days, but the total rise is going to be a few feet at most before the decline resumes.
  • The remainder of the snowpack has begun to melt off with the heat wave. That “surge” will arrive at Lake Powell about the same time the end of the FG release also reaches the Lake. So the natural melt will slightly extend the increased flow for a few more days. Unfortunately it appears it will be brief and anemic resulting in barely any additional rise.
  • The poor CBRFC runoff forecast is still having fits dealing with a way outside the ensemble year and waffling between a record low runoff and predicting runoffs below what has already happened! Bottom line it will be either record low or near record low and the details don’t really matter at this point.
  • Near the end of the week we should get the May 24 Month Study which includes the new operating plan for reduced release this WY. Folks here have already mapped out what that will look like, but it will be good to see the “official” version.
 
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