Spring Runoff Reality Check - May 7

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Everything is still froze up and all the web cams from the resorts suggest there's still thick upper elevation snow cap. Very strange this late in May and still no flows. Flaming Gorge flows did pop up though so that's a start.
 
Winter has been hanging on hard this spring in Arizona's high country. The Snowbowl Ski Resort here outside of Flagstaff is going to be open for Spring Skiing the next two weekends, an all time record for latest dates open. I was up there yesterday working and the trails are still solidly covered in their base glacier. I'd like to ski on Memorial Day but I'll be up lake instead, life is good! I'm hoping the same conditions are prevailing in the basin area but I'm starting to get a bit concerned. I guess the next two weeks will show us what will happen. Hoping for some regional drenching rains to kick it off in earnest🤞
 
viking842000 said:
Which is pretty sad as Navajo is only up 5' from the low point this year and down 12' from last year. Been so dang cold at night so it just feels like run off is just slowly dissipating honestly. Animas river is basically clear and mild flow..
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I wonder what the effect of the new pipeline going to Gallup will do do Nav?
 
AndyMAC said:
Flaming Gorge is set to release 6000cfs for a few days starting tomorrow for larvae stimulating ...so that hits LP in 10 days
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Nice! The rivers above the lake are nearing peak flow with a 32K cfs yesterday. The lake went up 4 in yesterday and will be rising 6 in in a couple of days. They are still filling most of the reservoirs above Powell and will probably add a million or so acre feet to them. It's nice to have the cut open but I think I would rather have all that water in a place where it can help to keep the lake above 3550 for several years to come.
 
Hosting some friends from Germany here in Pinedale. They have been astonished by the crazy weather. Specifically, fly fishing in during a blizzard in late May! Runoff screeched to halt here, there is still a lot of snow to melt! Next week looks like the first serious warm spell of the season here, I bet the rivers really get cranking then.
 
Lots of cold temps and lots of rain in the high country last few weeks.


The snow line is moving higher each day with stream flows being clear and normal, no mud or over flow. Ground is very saturated with the sustained rains.


Local lakes are all near the top.


The big extended warm winds have not hit yet - and that is what will rob a ton of water, when SWE gets stripped right off the snow surface direct into the air.


The charts show we are approaching 30% SWE, this translates to 70% already melted…


The next 4 weeks is where all action will be.


I do not know the SWE flow model for extended colder temps with slower melts during runoff window, but that is where we are. For me I will double down on my comments made months ago for lower lift this year.
 
JFRCalifornia said:
I'd say it's highly unlikely we'll have any. Actually, 1-foot+ rises have rarely happened in the lake's history... only in a few years, mostly when the lake was very low. I might not have them all right, but off the top of my head I'm thinking 1964, 1968, 1973, maybe a couple in 1979, a day or two in 1984, 1993, 2005, 2011, 2019 and then last year in 2023. What most of those years have in common is that they started very low and were big runoff years with minimal outflows. So that's why certain big years like 1983 never saw a daily 1-foot rise even with a huge runoff...
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Oh man, I dunno. 0.62 rise yesterday with rivers running only 68% of normal. This week’s blast of heat may produce that daily one foot. We shall see!
 
Trix said:
Oh man, I dunno. 0.62 rise yesterday with rivers running only 68% of normal. This week’s blast of heat may produce that daily one foot. We shall see!
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Could still happen… since USBR has suppressed outflows this season (these are among the lowest May outflows in Lake Powell history), a good jolt next week from upstream just might do it. It’s gonna take a net inflow of about 45,000 cfs to make for a one-foot rise, and that’s totally possible since outflows are hovering low around 10,000… look for 55,000+ cfs inflow…

I was just on the lake May 21-23, and it rose about 17 inches in those three days… the boat was floating each morning…
 
JFRCalifornia said:
Could still happen… since USBR has suppressed outflows this season (these are among the lowest May outflows in Lake Powell history), a good jolt next week from upstream just might do it. It’s gonna take a net inflow of about 45,000 cfs to make for a one-foot rise, and that’s totally possible since outflows are hovering low around 10,000… look for 55,000+ cfs inflow…

I was just on the lake May 21-23, and it rose about 17 inches in those three days… the boat was floating each morning…
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