Spring Runoff Reality Check - May 7

[Jon.Diedrich]

I see Powell is up 26 feet or so. In the last 6 years this been the highest Lake Powell has gone up following an epic year. 2019 saw 53 foot rise in the lake followed by 12 feet or so in 2020. Epic year 2023 saw 65 foot rise followed by 26 so far this year so let’s keep the rain dance up! Just trying to stay positive.

 

[AndyMAC]

if we can string 12 more days of rise that's 12 more days it's not falling!!!!! Just pray it stays 20,000cfs ....and maybe we touch 3590!!!!

 

[Tiff Mapel]

I would love for the Cut to be open through July!

Tiff

 

[AndyMAC]

I would love for the Cut to be open through July!

Tiff

1 more foot i think that's not a problem, 2 more feet you're into the 3rd week of August because as long as it's rising it's not falling!!!!

 

[dogslayer24]

Will we see any rain from the hurricane? Looks like it's projected to head northwest after landfall

 

[Trix]

Looks unlikely that the LP basin will see remnants of Beryl. Forecast has it veering north through Texas.

 

[jayfromtexas]

Looks unlikely that the LP basin will see remnants of Beryl. Forecast has it veering north through Texas.

So sorry for the love. But Texas needs that rain just as badly.

 

[dogslayer24]

It looks like to me like west Texas will get some real good rain

 

[flowerbug]

Upstream reservoirs are no longer increasing so either inflows are down or they are ramping up their diversions.

Also looks like LP inflows are leveling off increases.

Short of some summer rains I'm not sure much more elevation is coming. The hurricane aftermath may not amount to much (but I do hope for different).

 

[HMaea]

Looks like probably just three more days until the peak. With all the snow pretty much gone and no thunderstorms forecast anywhere in the basin for the next week, inflows are dropping quickly.

 

[CATD8RII]

Looks like probably just three more days until the peak. With all the snow pretty much gone and no thunderstorms forecast anywhere in the basin for the next week, inflows are dropping quickly.

Yep, someone is turning the faucet off. We will be seeing the peak elevation soon I'm afraid.

 

[AndyMAC]

well, it's pretty much done when goes under 15,000cfs but as long as it can manage to stay even or just a hair above outflow and gain .01 per day I'm happy!!! Every day of EVENFLOWS is a day it's not dropping so that's a bonus in my book! 3 weeks of equal flows or close means it holds 3587 til mid August which would be a massive win for the season.

 

[Leardriver]

An old saying in Aviation is that any tailwind beats any headwind. Your idea that the slightest gain beats any loss is right on.

 

[ndscott50]

Looking at the inflow forecast: https://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/dbdata/station/flowgraph/flowgraph_hc.html?id=GLDA3&ptype=2
Inflow will drop below 10,000 cfs next Monday and be down to 8,300 by July 20. Hopefully we get a pattern change later in July for some more monsoon so we can avoid inflows really falling off a cliff.

 

[Jon.Diedrich]

Great analogy Leardriver and so true!