El Nino and Winter Outlook

The ground squirrels in the oak tree off my deck in Flagstaff are growing chubby working extra hard this year gathering up and stashing away the acorns. Signs like that or how bushy the horses tails are have long been predictors of winter for the locals here. Last year we had virtually no winter and the animals didn’t seem too concerned when fall came, my squirrels went into it seemingly kinda skinny.

I believe in the science too and someday we’ll figure out how the animals seem to know things even without satellites and graphs. Like how a family looses their dog in Yellow Stone and a year later she shows up on their porch in Florida or how a tiny Monarch Butterfly migrates thousand of miles back home to where it was born just before it dies. Or how animals get uneasy before an earthquake or how a service dog can be trained to warn an owner just before they have a seizure? Some people write that stuff off but it really seems miraculous and we might actually understand it in the next twenty years with advances in Super Computing mated with AI. Once that happens we might learn a lot more.
(As long as sky net doesn’t get us all first)

I was sad they stopped printing the Farmers Almanac last year, they claimed to be 85% reliable. I heard they made their predictions by secret methods involving things like cutting up caterpillars and worms and looking at the colors.
I have been noticing things all year too, started this spring things came a month early. My beloved hibiscus always come out right in mid july. This one I know, and they were a month early too, leaves changed a little early, sweatshirts came out at the motocross races we always go to a month early too. My hunter buddies are telling me the mountains are doing the same things.
 
It would be a nice boost to get some tropical systems into the Southwest over the next 60 days.

I would note that currently only the GFS shows next weeks system into California with the other models taking it out to sea - we will know more in a few days.

Further out the long range models show another system into Arizona - that’s well into the model fantasy land zone.

Overall though the well above normal ocean temps in the western Pacific increase the potential we could see a tropical system work its way into the Southwest this season

Beyond the short term water a system or two dropping some good rain right before the snow season could be very helpful to increase soil moisture and improve spring runoff.
 
Feeling very tropical here in SW Utah.
Excellent excuse for a Mai Tai or Lava Flow..... ;)

Seriously tho......Weather underground now shows NO San Diego rainfall for 9/5-7.....:unsure: maybe should switch to weather above ground..........:rolleyes:

On a lighter note....my brother was the technical director at ABC channel 10 for 32 years....he was good friends with Mike Ambrose, the weather guy. After a couple of drinks at company parties, Mike would always say: A monkey with a dartboard is just as accurate as my weather forecast.......
;)
 
The "Southern California Weather Force" ???!??!? With a report from the "Master General Meteorologist" ???!!!?!!???

I mean, AI slop would do better than that...
 
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