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70% Change of El Nino this winter!

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Bill Sampson

Escalante-Class Member
Waterbaby I have a question for you. I have been coming to the lake since 1979. I ended up choosing the week right after the July 4th weekend for my trip on the lake, due to minimal monsoon activity. Over the past 5 years it seems to me like the monsoon season is starting sooner. Have you seen anything to lead you to think this is happening?
 

Lake Bum

Well-Known Member
Waterbaby I have a question for you. I have been coming to the lake since 1979. I ended up choosing the week right after the July 4th weekend for my trip on the lake, due to minimal monsoon activity. Over the past 5 years it seems to me like the monsoon season is starting sooner. Have you seen anything to lead you to think this is happening?
I think that is only a regional conclusion on results. This year in Flagstaff, the Monsoons arrived about 2 weeks later than normal. I feel we got extremely lucky there wasn't a catastrophic fire around here :cool:
 

Waterbaby

Escalante-Class Member
Waterbaby I have a question for you. I have been coming to the lake since 1979. I ended up choosing the week right after the July 4th weekend for my trip on the lake, due to minimal monsoon activity. Over the past 5 years it seems to me like the monsoon season is starting sooner. Have you seen anything to lead you to think this is happening?
I think that is only a regional conclusion on results. This year in Flagstaff, the Monsoons arrived about 2 weeks later than normal. I feel we got extremely lucky there wasn't a catastrophic fire around here :cool:

There's been a few times we've had strong activity in July, but I've always found later in August they track more to our benefit. It all has to do with the warming along the Mexican Coast and into the Gulf of California [which are bright red now] as well as the winds blowing the right way to bring them up from the tropics. The biggest storms here in Havasu seem to be September/early October, while I always found later in August was better at Powell, yet it almost always seemed to rain from Flagstaff to Seligman and be dry at Powell and here..... They're fascinating to follow [IMO], if the storms go on the outside of Baja California we are almost certain to get a big storm, but if it comes up the Gulf then depending on the winds it will either follow the Colorado up over Yuma and Parker and pound us here in Havasu or if the winds are turned more easterly will blow most of the moisture over New Mexico and into Texas. I just know I love the storms and George ALWAYS thought I was nuts because I wanted to go to Powell when the odds were higher of having one, he always said - of course, YOU don't have to worry about the boat all night.
 

Grant Stevens - USBR

Well-Known Member
You may find the East Pacific hurricane "Past tracks" interesting. All tracks for a year are shown together on a single page, most tracks head East, it's the ones that head North up through Baja that end up as tropical depressions at Powell...

Take a look, scroll to the Past track section, and select a year in the East Pacific drop down, then select go:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/#tracks_all
 

Dorado

Escalante-Class Member
I think we are in for a harsh winter this year. Just going by the last few mild years.

2016/2017 winter was one of the harshest, snowiest on record in the Green River Drainage (where more than 1/2 of Lake Powell water comes from). And we also had a slightly above normal snowpack this past winter. The 16/17 winter was so bad it killed over 95% of mule deer fawns and nearly 1/2 of adults. It also drove the humans crazy moving snow around! So you guys down there can have the epic winter this time....
On a serious note, it is really scary how really wet years no longer seem to make up for the drought years. We have been getting above average snow up here, but groundwater and streamflows keep getting lower by the end of summer....
 

wayne gustaveson

Moderator
Staff member
2016/2017 winter was one of the harshest, snowiest on record in the Green River Drainage (where more than 1/2 of Lake Powell water comes from). And we also had a slightly above normal snowpack this past winter. The 16/17 winter was so bad it killed over 95% of mule deer fawns and nearly 1/2 of adults. It also drove the humans crazy moving snow around! So you guys down there can have the epic winter this time....
On a serious note, it is really scary how really wet years no longer seem to make up for the drought years. We have been getting above average snow up here, but groundwater and streamflows keep getting lower by the end of summer....

I agree - it seems that every storm is a microburst instead of a pleasant shower. Weather is now either a tragic event or the lack of any rain or snow at all. Well there is wind! It always blows too hard just to emphasize the change in weather conditions over time.
 

Bill Sampson

Escalante-Class Member
I am not a believer in global warming, but the weather patterns sure seem to be changing. But, as history shows, they could revert back at anytime. Just like everyone else, I would love to see both Lake Powell an Lake Mead fill up again over one winter, but I think the only way that would happen would be through massive storms will loss of lives. Hopefully nature can find a happy medium.
 

John P Funk

Escalante-Class Member
I am not a believer in global warming, but the weather patterns sure seem to be changing.
I think we just have short memories(in general), weather is and has always been cyclical. We only remember a certain number of events, and really need to analyze the data systematically to look for trends. Obviously lake level gives some indication, but there are outside influences that affect that as well(like CAP's "sweet spot" policy).
 

Littlesaltwash

Well-Known Member
We haven’t had any rain here in Junction this summer. We generally try to get all our second cutting hay up by the first week in July because historically its hard to get a weeks window of dry weather. Nobody has “cow” hay this year, it’s all good. Some drops today but as usual not enough to settle the dust. Up at Flaming Gorge this last weekend and it was as full as most folks remember. Only about a 5 foot ring. The smallmouth and rainbows were still carrying eggs. The girls got in the water to play but not for long.
 

Lance Cue

Well-Known Member
We haven’t had any rain here in Junction this summer. We generally try to get all our second cutting hay up by the first week in July because historically its hard to get a weeks window of dry weather. Nobody has “cow” hay this year, it’s all good. Some drops today but as usual not enough to settle the dust. Up at Flaming Gorge this last weekend and it was as full as most folks remember. Only about a 5 foot ring. The smallmouth and rainbows were still carrying eggs. The girls got in the water to play but not for long.

Seems like the fields here around gj get cut one day and bailed two days later, no need to let sit too long... I'm sure there will be minimal moldy hay around here this year, just a shortage of the good stuff
 

Littlesaltwash

Well-Known Member
There will more than likely be a shortage. Semi load after semi load is leaving the valley. We have cowmen asking about cornstalks and straw to stretch their feed. Good year for the hay producers, bad year for the ranchers. There wasn’t enough water to turn on any irrigation water down by Norwood, (San Miguel) It looks like the Bullfrog ramp.
 
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Waterbaby

Escalante-Class Member
According to NPPES we are ENSO Neutral and they still think we will be in El Nino this winter, yet the winds are still blowing the storms forming in the Pacific to the West rather than NW... which is what it normally does with La Nina. What I read on Accuweather is the lower level winds are NW, but the upper winds are blowing West and pushing the storms in a Westerly direction. Would love to see the pattern of the upper winds shift.
 

Waterbaby

Escalante-Class Member
I just read today was the coldest day on this date in Denver since 1939. Another article showed picture of leaves already changing - of course they said it is because of "global warming." Umm couldn't possibly be a sign we are in for a very cold winter could it!
 

Dungee

Escalante-Class Member
Hard to counter three or four year stretches of bad winters with one good one mixed in. It would be nice for that cycle to reverse.
 
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