70% Change of El Nino this winter!

[linnell]

For what it's worth

 

[Lake Bum]

Sorta funny that the Snowflake is placed right on top of Lake Havasu, and Kingman, when Flagstaff is at 7100 ft elevation and shows to be warm. I'd say this map is extremely generalized

 

[JBinNM]

Here in Santa Fe we've had some great afternoon storms almost daily. Last month we had a '1000 year' event causing flash flooding and a lot of damage. https://www.kob.com/new-mexico-news/rain-flooding-damages-homes-in-santa-fe/5002199/

Seems a lot wetter than recent years

 

[Ryan]

I just read today was the coldest day on this date in Denver since 1939. Another article showed picture of leaves already changing - of course they said it is because of "global warming." Umm couldn't possibly be a sign we are in for a very cold winter could it!

Leaves are changing earlier this year. Every report that I have heard states that we are 1 - 2 weeks ahead of schedule for "peak leaf viewing", but attributed to this years drought. I haven't heard anyone blame it on "global warming", but I am sure there are reports out there.

 

[Littlesaltwash]

Here in Junction we just got our really first good rain of the summer on two consecutive days last week. Everything has been passing us by all spring and summer. Happy that everyone else is getting moisture

 

[Waterbaby]

Yesterday the latest NOAA report came out - they now say a 50/50 chance of a "mild" El Nino this winter. But Joe Bastardi was just on Fox Business [he is the most spot-on forecaster with Weatherbell.com] and showed how -for instance - they predicted the current storm pattern in the Atlantic over a month ago, said one of the four may hit the UK, the other two will likely peter out, but in October the Caribbean will fire up for a while. But what he said that perked my ears was "we're in the same sort of weather pattern as 2002."

For those who don't remember - this drought started in 2002 - and Lake Powell dropped like a rock between 2002 into 2004 - with 2004 being so low we had to launch on the old long forgotten launch ramp between Stateline and Wahweap. He predicted cold and wet in the East - didn't sound encouraging for us out here in the West. Hope he will be wrong for a change, but this summer is eerily like the Summer of 2002..

 

[linnell]

I remember those years, 05 was the low point, I believe, but nobody was crying "the end is near"

 

[Waterbaby]

I remember those years, 05 was the low point, I believe, but nobody was crying "the end is near"

Spring of 2005 was the low - then we had the runoff and it was higher than the prior summer... here is the data on the same August date 2000 - to 2018, I think it is interesting to see how we've gone up and down since the start of the drought.... this is why I don't get too worked up by the sky is falling the lake is drying up talk, it's been up and down like this since 2002 - we were lower than this in 2004 and again in 2013. I just wish this drought would give up.... BTW below I posted a picture of the Stateline launch ramp and the place nearby we had to launch in 2004..... remember how over at Wahweap it was a big problem for people retrieving....

Water Data for Selected Dates
2000 - 3680
2001 - 3667
2002 - 3628
2003 - 3605
2004 - 3573
2005 - 3604
2006 - 3604
2007 - 3604
2008 - 3630
2009 - 3638
2010 - 3635
2011 - 3656
2012 - 3624
2013 - 3590
2014 - 3606
2015 - 3610
2016 - 3614
2017 - 3632
2018 - 3598