Wind forecast.

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Ok, so this is interesting. A big blow will happen Thursday tomorrow at around dinner time. Looking at the models for 1800 on May 16, there is spread of 'opinions' for the peak of the blow. For example, the NAM (5 - km scale model) by NOAA predicts 23 sustained, 32 gusts. The ECMWF ( 9 - km scale model ) by the Europeans predicts 23 sustained, 45 gusts. The GFS ( 22 - km scale model ) by NOAA again, predicts 33 sustained, 41 gusts. And the NEMS ( 4 - km scale model ) again by NOAA predicts only 9 sustained, 21 gusts. Appears the web page above is reporting the GFS model which predicts the most severe wind conditions. It will be interesting to see the results of this sample space of 1 of who comes out correct. My bet would be on the NAMS and the ECMWF model since they are kind of in agreement more and the other two. BTW, there is a very useful App called Windy that graphically displays winds and gusts, along with temperature and weather conditions for up to two weeks time. You can see where on the Lake the wind conditions are poor and plan accordingly. Highly recommend.
 
rjmronster said:
Ok, so this is interesting. A big blow will happen Thursday tomorrow at around dinner time. Looking at the models for 1800 on May 16, there is spread of 'opinions' for the peak of the blow. For example, the NAM (5 - km scale model) by NOAA predicts 23 sustained, 32 gusts. The ECMWF ( 9 - km scale model ) by the Europeans predicts 23 sustained, 45 gusts. The GFS ( 22 - km scale model ) by NOAA again, predicts 33 sustained, 41 gusts. And the NEMS ( 4 - km scale model ) again by NOAA predicts only 9 sustained, 21 gusts. Appears the web page above is reporting the GFS model which predicts the most severe wind conditions. It will be interesting to see the results of this sample space of 1 of who comes out correct. My bet would be on the NAMS and the ECMWF model since they are kind of in agreement more and the other two. BTW, there is a very useful App called Windy that graphically displays winds and gusts, along with temperature and weather conditions for up to two weeks time. You can see where on the Lake the wind conditions are poor and plan accordingly. Highly recommend.
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It looks like my goto Lake Powell weather app, Weather Underground, uses either the NAM or ECMWF as that is what they are forecasting for winds also.
 
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