Will the Castle Rock Cut be Open in June?

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smoke said:
the lake was at 3573.54 last night 3580-3573.54= 6.46 ft
if we still gain .9ft per day we still 7 days out and really 12 before we can use the cut so I bet for June 26 before a boat can go through
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Snowmelt is tapering off, and the releases out of the Gorge are done. 0.9 foot rise might be a bit optimistic. Looks like the weather pattern will change by the middle of next week, to more average (warmer) temperatures. I guess we will find out if there really is a bunch more snow to melt up high to cause another bump in flows...
 
Trix said:
When did the current closure of The Cut begin? Looking at annual min/max by year, must have been late summer or fall of 2020.
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The last time the lake was above 3580 was 1-11-21. The last time it was above 3583 was 12-26-20.

I still think we make it to both those milestones in the coming weeks. Based on NOAA's inflow forecast for the next week or so (which sees inflows dropping below 50,000 cfs for good by June 18, and below 40,000 by about June 24), combined with BOR's steady outflow of 17,800 cfs or so, best guess is that the lake hits 3580 around June 21, and 3583 about June 27. We'll be lucky to see 3585 as June turns to July. If NOAA forecasts prove accurate for July, we might see a peak of just over 3588-89 somewhere in the second week of July, tapering off to about 3588 by the end of the month, but look for that month to be pretty steady in terms of inflows and outflows...

What all this means is that I think the Cut will be usable from about June 27 through July and until probably about mid-August...
 
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JFRCalifornia said:
The last time the lake was above 3580 was 1-11-21. The last time it was above 3583 was 12-26-20.

I still think we make it to both those milestones in the coming weeks. Based on NOAA's inflow forecast for the next week or so (which sees inflows dropping below 50,000 cfs for good by June 18, and below 40,000 by about June 24), combined with BOR's steady outflow of 17,800 cfs or so, best guess is that the lake hits 3580 around June 21, and 3583 about June 27. We'll be lucky to see 3585 as June turns to July. If NOAA forecasts prove accurate for July, we might see a peak of 3588-89 somewhere in the second week of July, tapering off to about 3587 by the end of the month, but look for that month to be pretty steady in terms of inflows and outflows...

What all this means is that I think the Cut will be usable from about June 27 through July and until probably about mid-August...
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Crossing my fingers through mid September usable.
 
Dorado said:
Snowmelt is tapering off, and the releases out of the Gorge are done. 0.9 foot rise might be a bit optimistic. Looks like the weather pattern will change by the middle of next week, to more average (warmer) temperatures. I guess we will find out if there really is a bunch more snow to melt up high to cause another bump in flows...
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There is still a tremendous amount of snow up high in the northerly aspects and still holding on in southerly aspects in southwest CO. These zones also directly feed Powell with no reservoir to obstruct the flows. I'm no excerpt but my gut says it should be steady for quite some time. Still seeing fresh snow 10,000' and up with cooler temps forecasted. The average temps have been 5-10 below average all spring. So fingers crossed that the lake will continue to rise through July in my opinion, maybe even August for what its worth. I was in a snow cat yesterday still doing snow removal at the resort I work for! Looking forward to going to Halls soon! Cheers
 
Shredhook said:
There is still a tremendous amount of snow up high in the northerly aspects and still holding on in southerly aspects in southwest CO. These zones also directly feed Powell with no reservoir to obstruct the flows. I'm no excerpt but my gut says it should be steady for quite some time. Still seeing fresh snow 10,000' and up with cooler temps forecasted. The average temps have been 5-10 below average all spring. So fingers crossed that the lake will continue to rise through July in my opinion, maybe even August for what its worth. I was in a snow cat yesterday still doing snow removal at the resort I work for! Looking forward to going to Halls soon! Cheers
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I hope you're right, but if you are, NOAA has not accounted for that in its latest projections related to how much water is left that is headed toward Powell. As of today, they are saying that the total amount of runoff from April through July will be 10.8 maf. Of that total, they say that 7.6 maf has already found its way into one reservoir or another. But that still leaves 29% up there, or about 3.2 maf. Let's assume that's correct. If so, that represents the sum total that will eventually end up in Powell by the end of July, or another reservoir above Powell. Just to make it simple, let's say 90% of that makes it to Powell--that's almost 2.9 maf.

Now let's talk outflow. We already know BOR planned to release almost 1.1 maf through GCD in June, and just over that amount in July. Well, since they've already released almost 0.5 maf in June, that means another 0.6 is going to be headed out before the end of the month.

We also know current live storage is about 8.8 maf.

This all means the following:

Outflow

June 14-30 - 0.6 maf
July 1-31 - 1.1 maf

Total - 1.7 maf

Inflow

June 14-30 - 1.6 maf (projected, based on NOAA estimate)
July 1-31 - 1.3 maf (projected, based on NOAA estimate - discounts the amount held above Powell)
Amount held in the upper reservoirs above Powell - in July - 0.3 maf (estimate)

Total - 3.2 maf

If this all holds, we end up with the following net gain from today by the end of June and July:

June 30 - +1.0 maf = 9.8 maf live storage
July 31 - +1.2 maf = 10.0 maf live storage

And if all that is true, here's the elevation at the end of each month:

June 30 - 3586
July 31 - 3588

So to me the big wild cards are: 1) whether NOAA's estimate for remaining water potential is right; and 2) how fast the remnant snowpack melts. If it heats up in the next week, we might see the lake rise above 3586 before the end of June, otherwise, it will stay below that. But regardless of how the weather plays out in June, it looks like we are headed toward 3588 (coincidence?) by the end of July through a continued steady but unspectacular rise, probably peaking just above that in mid-July, then dropping back to that elevation by the end of the month...

But if NOAA is wrong and is overestimating remaining water supply, so is my analysis... we'll see soon enough...
 
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