When will the flows increase from FG?
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As best I can tell no details of operations have been released and the BoR press release from Friday said what was proposed still needs to be finalized this week as well - so the top line numbers might still change.
BoR has said repeatedly for many months that 3500 is the elevation they are trying to protect. So expect operations to avoid dropping below that if nothing else.
I sincerely doubt any plan would involve raising the lake above where it is right now. Dumping more water into a reservoir with much higher evaporative losses before or during the summer just wouldn’t make much sense. Although it would certainly be nice to keep north and south access for as long as possible I’m not sure that’s really a priority.
It will be interesting to see how operations are structured for a glide path down to 3500 and if they try to keep any reserve above that for some period of time. There are some environmental reasons to do transfers from Flaming Gorge at particular times potentially (mimic floods to promote spawning) and there is probably a practical floor to how low releases from Powell can get (like around 450kaf/month). So those kinds of things might shape how the lake level behaves over the summer and through the fall.
All speculation at this point though! Currently all the operational plans online do not reflect anything from the press release.
BoR has said repeatedly for many months that 3500 is the elevation they are trying to protect. So expect operations to avoid dropping below that if nothing else.
I sincerely doubt any plan would involve raising the lake above where it is right now. Dumping more water into a reservoir with much higher evaporative losses before or during the summer just wouldn’t make much sense. Although it would certainly be nice to keep north and south access for as long as possible I’m not sure that’s really a priority.
It will be interesting to see how operations are structured for a glide path down to 3500 and if they try to keep any reserve above that for some period of time. There are some environmental reasons to do transfers from Flaming Gorge at particular times potentially (mimic floods to promote spawning) and there is probably a practical floor to how low releases from Powell can get (like around 450kaf/month). So those kinds of things might shape how the lake level behaves over the summer and through the fall.
All speculation at this point though! Currently all the operational plans online do not reflect anything from the press release.
ndscott50
Well-Known Member
If I was going to guess they will generally spread it out over the May to April timeframe. There may be some front loading to account for both the May and June high flow programs which are related to fish protection. There may also be some benefit to pushing more water through during peak summer electrical demand.
It sounds like they are going to release between 600,000 and 1 million acre feet of additional water. That would be a lot of water to release in just a few months. Holding several hundred thousand of the additional water back until its needed in the winter would also give them some flexibility to see what's needed based on how next fall and winter play out in terms of snow.
It sounds like they are going to release between 600,000 and 1 million acre feet of additional water. That would be a lot of water to release in just a few months. Holding several hundred thousand of the additional water back until its needed in the winter would also give them some flexibility to see what's needed based on how next fall and winter play out in terms of snow.
From what I've read it can happen as soon as the plan is approved. Don't be too surprised if it happens before the end of this month.
If you want to check and see what Flaming Gorge is releasing you can look at:
If you want to check and see what Flaming Gorge is releasing you can look at:
RobertGosselin
Well-Known Member
I've seen the 3500' elevation mentioned several times also. Only 10' of headroom seems like an uncomfortable buffer to me.
Eagle Rock
Active Member
The centerline of the pipes to the powerplant is at 3470', and the level needed to avoid entraining air (which can cause cavitation, and thus all kinds of bad things) is 3490'. If you look at the data in lakepowell-water-data.com for the 1960s, you can see that the reservoir operated at 3590-3592' for many months, confirming that it is safe to do so. So 3490' as a safe level is based on history, not just paper studies. 3500' is BuRec wanting a 10' margin above that, which should be fine since the pool elevation never drops more than a few inches per day at most (except during beach-building flows, and there won't be any of those this year). If the changed releases announced last Friday work as planned (54' above the lowest level in the April 24-month study), then the 2026-27 water year minimum will be 3510' at the end of March 2027, which adds a further 10' margin.
Good data on the past operations near minimum power pool!
As to the April 24 month study, much like last year, they are OBE by the time they are released. Its levels are based on the 4/1 CBRFC official forecast of 1400 kaf. The more recent 4/15 CBRFC official forecast is down to 900 kaf. So the extra 10’ margin is already gone!
But to your larger point, indeed, the level doesn’t move fast. Ten feet is three to four months.
At this point they’ve pulled out all the stops and what they get is what they get. Hopefully the summer and fall are wet to give a bit more margin and the winter isn’t another disaster.