Got an email this morning from a wordling asking this question: "Do you think this next year the fishing conditions improve? Been fishing the San Juan for 25 years. Last few years have been a little tougher.
I’m thinking with last years water flow and this season looking bright for snow falls will be real good.
Any thoughts?"
Here is my response:
Your question has many answers. Right now fish are fatter and healthier than they have been for a very long time due to a high lake level rise combined with a massive shad spawn. Another high water year in 2020 will make them even fatter. Low water will slow down the shad spawn but fish health will be good through 2020, and then 2021 is up in the air depending on shad reproduction success.
Bass and crappie had great reproduction due to brushy habitat underwater. These young fish need the water level to stay up above the brush line so the 2019 year class can grow to maturity and spawn in 2021 and 22.
More high water makes more bass and crappie if they have brush to hide in and protect them from larger predators.
Stripers have plenty of shad to eat so they are extremely healthy. That will continue in 2020. Then we need another threadfin shad spawn in 2021 to continue the extra growth and fat that we have seen in 2019. The side bar is that fat stripers do not have to feed as much and are harder to catch then normal.
Many species are growing bigger now in size and numbers - catfish, walleye, stripers, bass, crappie, sunfish, etc.
Fat fish are hard to catch, while hungry fish are easy targets. We have seen hungry fish in Lake Powell in most years and caught fish in big numbers. Now we have fat fish and slower fishing results. Where is the best balance?
What will be the final outcome? Historically, forage is less making fishing easy.
This fall and winter we have fat fish that are harder to catch but each fish is a great reward. To me, that is better than catching a bunch of skinny fish with only a few worthy of being filleted.
What will actually happen depends on the 2020 runoff, sport fish reproduction, shad abundance, and weather. All of which we cannot control. If I had a magic button on my desk to push and make things fall in line, we could have the best of both worlds. But no magic button. All I can do is wait for the events of next year and react to them in the best way possible. I will do that and keep you advised.
I’m thinking with last years water flow and this season looking bright for snow falls will be real good.
Any thoughts?"
Here is my response:
Your question has many answers. Right now fish are fatter and healthier than they have been for a very long time due to a high lake level rise combined with a massive shad spawn. Another high water year in 2020 will make them even fatter. Low water will slow down the shad spawn but fish health will be good through 2020, and then 2021 is up in the air depending on shad reproduction success.
Bass and crappie had great reproduction due to brushy habitat underwater. These young fish need the water level to stay up above the brush line so the 2019 year class can grow to maturity and spawn in 2021 and 22.
More high water makes more bass and crappie if they have brush to hide in and protect them from larger predators.
Stripers have plenty of shad to eat so they are extremely healthy. That will continue in 2020. Then we need another threadfin shad spawn in 2021 to continue the extra growth and fat that we have seen in 2019. The side bar is that fat stripers do not have to feed as much and are harder to catch then normal.
Many species are growing bigger now in size and numbers - catfish, walleye, stripers, bass, crappie, sunfish, etc.
Fat fish are hard to catch, while hungry fish are easy targets. We have seen hungry fish in Lake Powell in most years and caught fish in big numbers. Now we have fat fish and slower fishing results. Where is the best balance?
What will be the final outcome? Historically, forage is less making fishing easy.
This fall and winter we have fat fish that are harder to catch but each fish is a great reward. To me, that is better than catching a bunch of skinny fish with only a few worthy of being filleted.
What will actually happen depends on the 2020 runoff, sport fish reproduction, shad abundance, and weather. All of which we cannot control. If I had a magic button on my desk to push and make things fall in line, we could have the best of both worlds. But no magic button. All I can do is wait for the events of next year and react to them in the best way possible. I will do that and keep you advised.
Last edited:
