JFRCalifornia
Keeper of San Juan Secrets
That's a pretty spot on summary of the current situation. Thank you.
USBR 24 month Water Prediction Report?
- Thread starter Bigcatpt
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sparkin5280
Well-Known Member
I don't want to get too far off topic, but I might be best to answer this question. Also we need the distraction right? I don't want to defy our water guru JFR but I have a pretty good, recent idea of how deep it is under Gregory Bridge.
After a houseboat work party in late April/early May 2022, I went down and camped in Halls Bay (or what was left of it). Elevation was about 3522 if I remember correctly. I shore tent camped and brought with me a small 12' folding boat with 6pm outboard and a 300hp supercharged Jet Ski. I used the 12' boat to fish and map out depths around Bullfrog. But one of the days I strapped three 5 gallon gas cans in addition to the 15 gallons it held, onto the back of the Jet Ski and set off for a 75 round trip down the lake to see Gregory Bridge and CID for the day (just a day trip). I had with me a portable, battery operated hand held Hummingbird fish/depth finder. I used it under Gregory and I was SHOCKED to see that it was reading only 19 feet at that 3522' lake elevation. I tried multiple spots on either side of the Bridge and it held pretty steady at 19', even 17 or 18 on the up-river side of Gregory. I think there has been MAJOR siltation under Gregory over the years and you'll see it at about 3503'. I could be wrong but that's what I saw May 3rd, 2022.
Now I will say that if you tried to walk under it even at 3500 you'd probably sink up to your waist in quicksand. I made a stop at Cathedral in the Desert same day. The landing at the time was pure sand and silt about 300 yards from the entrace to CID. I used this stop to dump one of my 5 gallon gas cans in the ski, and while standing there in the shallows I almost became permanently stuck (that would have been REALLY bad because no on knew my whereabouts at the time). Luckily I was standing next to the Jetski that was floating so I pushed down on it and wriggled myself free of the muck.
I took some video at the time of my trip and the run into the Escalante if you'd like to see what to expect at low 3520's.
Primative launch at Bullfrog main ramp, Old Dangling Rope in the background.
Beach about 1 mile inside Halls where I set up camp.
15 gallons of Premium strapped to the back of a 300hp Jetski. Had a freshly rebuild motor so I had to "break it in" lol. I did just set the cruise to about 27 mph average on the trip to take it easy on the engine. The ski would do 65mph if you wanted it to, or so I've heard haha.
Approaching Gregory Bridge.
Pic of the downstream side of Gregory.
Pic of upstream side of Gregory.
Underneath Gregory, was a little nerve wracking just hanging out under it.
Depth that I measured under Gregory when lake was about 3522'.
Parking at the end of Clear Creek for CID hike.
End of Clear Creek 3522' May 2022.
Hiking to CID 3522'.
Cathedral in the Desert 5/3/2022.
Proof that I wasn't just there to sightsee. Caught in the back of Halls. Wow I hadn't shaved in a while!
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JFRCalifornia
Keeper of San Juan Secrets
Great report, and especially good info about Gregory. No doubt there has been significant siltation under the bridge through the years, and my first guess not knowing anything else would be that the depth of the sediment would be similar to the other Escalante Canyons, like Clear Creek or Davis. In those cases, based on old photos (especially at Cathedral) the sediment was probably 30 feet deep.
Gregory Bridge presented an unusual pre-lake profile. The old stream was close to one abutment, so the height was greatest there, and was at one time reported to be about 75 feet. The other abutment was close to the top edge of a sandy slope, where the clearance might have been closer to just 30 feet or less. So dead center it was somewhere in between. Not sure how deposition has played out through that opening since the 1960s, but just 19 feet of depth is a surprising result. Was it 19 feet all along the length of the bridge? It would be interesting to take a deeper dive into that one.
Thanks for the first hand observations!
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Marina Bum
Escalante-Class Member
I agree, it’s going to get interesting. It’s about time to get the popcorn and watch what happens. I heard a new one to me the other day, they called it a cowboy proverb,
“It’s better to be up stream with a shovel than down stream with a piece of paper.”
We may soon find out. I’m not taking sides on that, just thought it was an interesting take. It’s still the Wild West in many ways IMO
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sparkin5280
Well-Known Member
The way I remember doing it at the time is I had the jet ski on, in idle as slow as it would go with one hand on the handlebars and the other hand holding that hummingbird and transducer it's like all in one unit. I idled around under the bridge mostly upstream and downstream I don't think I got super close to the abutments. But definitely took readings all around in and out of there. I picture it looking like that siltation tongue that's coming out of cathedral in the desert see my other pics) that leads you all the way down to the lake. It's probably something like that. If we ever do get below 3,500 and have a flash flood it could probably clean it out pretty well.
We were at CID in late October 2025. Hiked in [walked] to show our future daughter in-law. She was obviously overwhelmed, but I was disappointed at the amount of graffiti plastered all over the wall left side when walking back out! Major let down.
Marina Bum
Escalante-Class Member
I
Kinda have to go to the way back memory bank but I think it was in 22 that we were nearing some similar concerns. We were all waiting for news here and it didn’t really flow out from Park service quickly or with much specificity. I remember reading on line about how over at Mead that Park Service was holding meetings to go over information and share the plan with those affected so they could know what to expect. They had a plan based on different levels as they dropped. What to expect, what would happen at this cut off and then the next and so on. If we continue with a downward trajectory it would sure be nice if PS released a plan here and took some questions this time around
Kinda have to go to the way back memory bank but I think it was in 22 that we were nearing some similar concerns. We were all waiting for news here and it didn’t really flow out from Park service quickly or with much specificity. I remember reading on line about how over at Mead that Park Service was holding meetings to go over information and share the plan with those affected so they could know what to expect. They had a plan based on different levels as they dropped. What to expect, what would happen at this cut off and then the next and so on. If we continue with a downward trajectory it would sure be nice if PS released a plan here and took some questions this time around
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hidesert cowboy
Member
thanks for the explanation. if lake powell released 7.5 million last year and the lower basin used 5.92 did the rest just raise the level of mead? So it sounds to me that in order for the lake to not drop in a given year, with leakage and evaporation. It really needs to be close to 10 Maf of intake.
as for water rights I have always found the subject kinda interesting as we have a well and live in a dry valley with water as a concern. Also the great salt lake is drying up as well. This is despite the fact last year was a pretty average snow pack year in the north. My theory is when the water rights were allocated there were so many that had went unused which allowed other users to use more than their share and still have plenty to spare. Now all the straws are pulling water from a system that was calculated with innaccurate data and what we see is in order for the water not to be less we have to now depend on not just average water years but above average years just to maintain.
the great salt lake is drying up. I contend because of all the housing. much of the water goes back into the system from the sewer and storm drains. however I personally think watering lawns uses way and I mean way more water than people think. For most homes to be running water all night long at least 3 days a week in the summer. this isn't water that is going back into the system.
the green river is about average it says with snow pack so if the poster above is correct that should mean if that holds the lake can depend on 4 ish MAF coming from the green by itself?
JFRCalifornia
Keeper of San Juan Secrets
Good post.
Regarding your first point, the other lower basin user to account for is Mexico, which is entitled to 1.5 maf under a 1944 treaty, but in 2025 recently agreed to reduce their use to 1.22 maf. When you add that to 5.92 maf, you get 7.14 maf.... then you have to account for evaporation (probably upwards of 0.5 maf) and seepage... So the outflow of 7.5 maf release through GCD doesn't quite keep up, even with reduced lower basin use..
On your second point, the Green typically accounts for about 40% of the total flow into Lake Powell (about 45% from the Colorado, and 15% from the San Juan). It's possible that the Green's share of the total might be slightly higher this year considering how bad things are at the upper stem of the Colorado, but still unlikely to account for 4 maf...
John P Funk
Escalante-Class Member
"Whiskey is for drinking and water is for fighting." is a local favorite. SW Colorado.
Marina Bum
Escalante-Class Member
Yeah, I like that quote too. in Arizona’s history sometime in the distant past they sent some kind of National Guard or Army to the AZ side if the Colorado River to watch Californians start digging an aqueduct for LA. IDK what they thought they would do or what legal basis they thought Arizona had or thought they did but yeah, I guess they thought it was pretty important. It seems comical now but they were dead serious! Of course water is so vital and valuable because it turns almost worthless desert land into valuable real estate and farm land.
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RiverRat68
Active Member
AZ sending the National Guard was to stop CA MWD from building Parker Dam since AZ at the time was the only state not to have signed the Compact...Supreme Court ruled in AZ's favor and after political brinksmanship and negotiation, there was a compromise of some sort and the dam was finished in 1938...there's a pretty good summary of what happened in a 2015 LA times article if anyone wants to read it.
RichieW13
Well-Known Member
California Retrospective: How a 1930s water war between California and Arizona delayed Parker Dam
"Water war" has for decades been a term used to describe the political battles over water in the West.
www.latimes.com
Bigcatpt
Well-Known Member
Cool pics! Thanks for sharing! We hit CID and Gregory Arch on April 1 2023 at water level 3520ish water level. So just a little before you did. It was very cool to see both! I didn't think to check depth under the arch though.
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