Up 9.32 feet in the last 7 days

[David Fordham]

Highest 7 day rise for a non May or June stretch ever. And if up 1 foot or more tomorrow, that will be higher yet...

https://lakepowell.water-data.com

Hope all are doing great.

 

[RichieW13]

Outflows are staying at about 6,500cfs, which is even lower than it was during the summer. And it's lower than average (9,000cfs) for this time of year. Is that evidence that they are planning to keep as much water as possible in Powell?

 

[David Fordham]

Outflows are staying at about 6,500cfs, which is even lower than it was during the summer. And it's lower than average (9,000cfs) for this time of year. Is that evidence that they are planning to keep as much water as possible in Powell?

Well I would hope so but it is complicated. Lake Powell is contractually obligated to deliver 75 MAF to Mead over 10 years. Last year outflows were only 6 MAF while the past 10 years have added up to 80 MAF. Problem is Mead has downstream obligations as well (between 9 and 9.2 MAF annually) and CA will definitely sue to get its 4.4 MAF of that. Time will tell but just keep praying moisture finds it way into the UC drainage.

 

[Rivergoer]

The chart is amazing thanks for posting. The sole October surrounded by May’s and June’s really highlights how unusual the past week or so has been.

Another thing it demonstrates is the “funnel-effect” where rate of rise over a given period is exponentially higher from lower elevation.

 

[Trix]

I forgot that 2023 was such a huge recovery year. 64 foot rise from min to max. I think my boating that year was limited to a 1000 foot “yacht.”

 

[RichieW13]

Well I would hope so but it is complicated. Lake Powell is contractually obligated to deliver 75 MAF to Mead over 10 years. Last year outflows were only 6 MAF while the past 10 years have added up to 80 MAF. Problem is Mead has downstream obligations as well (between 9 and 9.2 MAF annually) and CA will definitely sue to get its 4.4 MAF of that. Time will tell but just keep praying moisture finds it way into the UC drainage.

True. I guess they need to be closer to 10,500cfs to hit 7.5MAF in a year.

Looking at some previous Octobers with 15000+ inflows to see if outflow pattern has changed:

Year	Elev	Average Inflow	Average Outflow
2026	3521	20710	6595
2006	3606	21104	9856
1997	3690	16182	19592
1986	3689	18622	18758
1984	3694	15483	21729
1972	3605	18046	10266

None of those really compare because the lake elevation was so much higher.

1965 elevation was 3531 (so close to this year), with 13,425 inflow (doesn't quite reach my arbitrary 15,000 threshold) but outflows were 10,721. But that was so early in the lake's life that it's probably not comparable either.

 

[ndscott50]

Somebody will have to run the numbers but I would imagine this has completely removed the possibility that we go below minimum power pool this year and likely keeps the April low at or above 3520. This would be above the low water mark of 3516 we saw in September. Now we just need a giant snow year to add to this in the spring.

 

[David Fordham]

Somebody will have to run the numbers but I would imagine this has completely removed the possibility that we go below minimum power pool this year and likely keeps the April low at or above 3520. This would be above the low water mark of 3516 we saw in September. Now we just need a giant snow year to add to this in the spring.

Going below Power Pool before the spring runoff (down about 41 feet from here) is nearly impossible. The largest drop ever between Oct 15 and April 15 has been 29.45 feet in 2021.

 

[JSJ1]

Hey David, do you know what time of day the stats, that are monitered, are recorded?

 

[David Fordham]

Hey David, do you know what time of day the stats, that are monitered, are recorded?

Not exactly sure but they are reported early in the current day as yesterday's data so I give them an 11:59pm reporting time.

 

[JSJ1]

That's kinda what I was thinking.

 

[A man called horse]

Any chance enough sand gets suspended to damage the impellers of power generation turbines?

 

[David Fordham]

Any chance enough sand gets suspended to damage the impellers of power generation turbines?

Well, being a realist I'd say there is a non zero chance but it is really damn close to zero...

 

[David Fordham]

Any chance enough sand gets suspended to damage the impellers of power generation turbines?

So I was on the lake in early June 2011 which saw very large inflows that year the water much cloudier (sp?) than I had ever seen it and debris in the water was abundant all the way to slickrock. Definitely had to pay attention but funny thing was Bullfrog Bay had very little debris.