Papa Jacks High Water Level Contest 2023 (Guessing has Closed) Winner KY Kevin

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This is a difficult problem since there are still unknowns, and IMO, the biggest unknown is the amount to be released by the BOR—the nominal release at the beginning of this year was to be 7.0 maf, however, I believe it will be revised in April to 7.820 maf. If we take 2019 as a model, the Lake went from 3568.06 (April 10) to 3621.23 (August 3) feet (NGVD 1929), so it accumulated a net gain of 4.691 maf while releasing 9.0 maf in the outflow. That’s a total inflow of 13.691 maf. SWE in 2019 maxed out at 20.531 inches and this year is no slouch—let’s guesstimate 1.05% of 2019, which brings the SWE in 2023 to 21.558 inches, and assuming similar evaporation, and bank storage, we can predict ‘inflow’ to be 14.376 maf. Subtracting 7.820 for outflow to Mead gives a net gain of 6.556 maf. Add that to the current capacity of 7.010 maf (including the dead-pool) which is the lowest level that just happened on March 13, the lake could hold as much as 13.566 maf, which would bring its level to 3608.55 feet (NGVD 1929). Lots of uncertainty in terms of how much and when water is released, but I’m thinking the Lake peaks in mid-July 2023. Final answer: 3609 ft.
 
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