New water level projections from USBR?

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Ok so maybe I'm late to the party or not reading this right but to me, the most probable water elevation level to peak in July at roughly 3615' while the max probable shows us around 3630'. That seems to be pretty far off from most predictions I've seen lately that show us hitting the 3600' foot mark. Let me know what you guys think.PowellElevations.png
 
WinnsHawkII said:
That is the newest USBR prediction updated 04/01/19. Previous ones you saw were from earlier in the year when the snowpack was hovering around average. March was a record snow month for may sites above Powell
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Ok, I read up on the Upper Colorado River Basin April forecast and didn't see and elevation projections so this was the first thing I've seen reflecting the really wet March we had. Here in Utah/Salt Lake Counties, we got hammered these last two days so hopefully, a wet April puts us up closer to that max probable line.
 
In the Wasatch mountains above SLC, the weather report tonight projected another 3-4 feet of snow from now through next Thursday as the pattern is staying wet. Just over the ridge is drainage into Flaming George, so I hope the wet weather also continues to the East over the next week.
 
Looks like really good news for the lake! Based on the latest USBR's "Unregulated Inflow" projection (which is mostly based on predicted snowpack runoff), it looks like the most likely scenario this year will be comparable to 2005, 2008 or 2017. Those years there was a net volume increase in the spring of 4.3-4.6 MAF, which translated to a rise of 42-53 feet (it differed because we started at different lake levels--the lower the lake starts, the higher the rise). This year, a 4.4 MAF rise would fill the lake by 50 feet assuming a starting point of 3568, so we'd end up at 3618. I'd say Meatwagon is right on the mark!


In the best case scenario according to USBR, we're looking at unregulated inflows comparable to 1973, 1995 or 2011. In those years, we had a net spring increase of 5.9-6.8 MAF. If we go conservative and assume a 6.0 MAF increase this year as a "conservative best case", you end up at 3635. (Note that would be a 67-foot increase, and that's never happened before--the highest ever was 58 feet in 1973 and 1979.)

By the way, even the best case scenarios for this year are nowhere close to the whopper unregulated inflows of 1983-86, which never happened before or since the lake started filling in 1963...those are the top four years of unregulated inflow in the past 56 years! The only thing that kept the net increases down in those years is that the lake was basically close to full before the spring runoff, and the releases were huge...
 
And today we had our first "green" lake elevation change so here comes this great snow pack. The Weather Channel seven day planner projects snow and rain on some or most of the water shed every day. 3630+ looking good!
 
3615 happens to be a good number for me, but I will gladly congratulate anyone with higher guess that nails it!! 3630 or greater would be awesome!!!

(I Changed it to 3615 Mildog) Wayne
 
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Us southern lake launchers are hoping for a quick 12 foot rise so we can get Castle Cut open before the crowds hit Memorial Day weekend, which is only six weeks away. The water database shows we just went green from red two days ago.
 
T-Rex said:
Us southern lake launchers are hoping for a quick 12 foot rise so we can get Castle Cut open before the crowds hit Memorial Day weekend, which is only six weeks away. The water database shows we just went green from red two days ago.
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Warm weather may do it.
 
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