More than a drop in the Bucket!!

Mildog

Mildog

Escalante-Class Member
As we have all been watching in amazement this unprecedented dump
From Mother Nature! I recall someone’s comment that it was only a drop in the bucket!
Well it’s been a pretty big Bucket! Much needed and a big boost to Lake Powell water levels.
Basically it’s up 19 feet from late Sept. To give some perspective the lake only rose roughly 2 feet from last years “spring” runoff!
I think more to come and as we all know the Lake and the entire system needs it all badly!
Let’s all Hope for big snowpack!! Who knows how much gain we might see!! Going to be exciting to watch! It already more than a drop in the bucket for sure.
 
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Mildog said:
As we have all been watching in amazement thus unprecedented dump
From Mother Nature! I recall someone’s comment that it was only a drop in the bucket!
We it’s been a pretty big Bucket! Much need and a big boost to Lake Powell water levels.
Basically it’s up 19 feet from late Sept. To give some perspective the lake only rose roughly 2 feet from last years “spring” runoff!
I think more to come and as we all know the Lake and the entire system needs it all badly!
Let’s all Hope for big snowpack!! Who knows how much gain we might see!! Going to be exciting to watch! It already more than a drop in the bucket for sure.
Click to expand...
I'm hoping that "Is the cut open?" will not be a stupid question.
 
I was just checking the water levels and since the LP low of around 3516 and approx. 5,100,000 AF storage we are now at almost 6,200,000 AF of storage and closing in on and possibly already have achieved a 20 foot rise and added 1,000,000 AF and counting, more than 20% of the 3516 level storage!

Navajo is also an amazing story, having risen more than 56 feet from around 6010 and approx. 790,000 AF to the current 6066 and approx. 1,370,000 AF, a gain of almost 600,000 AF from the low and approx. 75% more water in storage than at the low.

I suspect JFR may be planning on an update after all the water makes it to the reservoirs with the historical data etc., a post I'm very much looking forward to reading. :)
 
I’m just whistling in the wind, but the top of the bucket, 3700, really shouldn’t be the metric for calling 20 feet a drop in the bucket or being 26% full. Some number below that, say, 3670, should be the “normal top of the bucket” to allow for unanticipated inflow such as we are experiencing now. I couldn’t find a definition of a conservation pool or normal operating pool for Colorado River reservoirs that you see in other states. 3700 would be great again from a boating perspective, visit Stevens Arch! But that may literally never happen again.
As Mildog said, it was a big drop!
And BTW, is it a Mild Og, or Mil Dog?😂
 
The anticipated average level for Lake Powell was considered to be about 3640’.

Lake Powell was never expected be a keep it full reservoir. Remarks that something is “wrong” with Lake Powell if it’s not at full pool are purposely misleading.
 
Trix said:
Since I lost access to the old LPWDB, what percent is current storage to storage at 3640?
JFR, knock, knock.
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Okay, I'll bite. I'm gonna give you the geek answer here.

Let's start with the idea that "capacity" is based on the live storage volume; i.e, the volume in the lake above Dead Pool (3370). At Dead Pool, there's still 1.7 maf trapped below any outlet, hence the term "dead pool" and "live storage."

There's a discrepancy between what the Water Data Base reports as the live storage capacity and the number reported in the BOR's January 2022 Report "Lake Powell Reservoir 2017 Area and Capacity Tables." The Data Base presents the commonly reported number of 24.3 maf. But the 2022 report says it's only 23.3 maf. I tend to think the 2022 report is likely more accurate, because it accounts for things like a detailed 2017 bathymetric survey and recent sedimentation in its calcuations.

So I'm going to base % of capacity on the 23.3 maf live storage figure from the 2022 BOR report. At 3640, the live storage in the reservoir is 15.1 maf based on the 2022 report. If that's accurate, that is 64.8% of live storage capacity. As @cathedral reported, at the current lake level of 3535.89, you've got 6.2 maf in live storage. I know the Water Data Base reports the lake to be at 25.46% of full pool (assuming full pool is 24.3 maf) at that volume. But using the BOR report's likely more accurate capacity figure of 23.3 maf, it's really more like 26.6% of full pool. Splitting hairs.

The difference between 64.8 and 26.6 is 38.2%...
 
If the long range euro and gfs models are correct another large storm will be coming onshore to Northern California in about 8-9 days and it is shown by the models to still be robust into Utah and Colorado. Storm would be targeting the northern section of the basin that’s been left behind so far. Models are often unreliable this far out but they’ve been consistent in showing this low pressure coming onshore around November 13-14. It’s a trend worth keeping an eye on because there could be another large shot of water coming in two weeks or so.
 
MattW said:
...It’s a trend worth keeping an eye on because there could be another large shot of water coming in two weeks or so.
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That would be fabulous because it gives the current runoff some time to drain away or soak in before another round arrives. And of course for snowpack it's great to have any at all land on top of the rains that have already soaked the ground. Cover it up and prevent it from being evaporated away.
 
Trix said:
I’m just whistling in the wind, but the top of the bucket, 3700, really shouldn’t be the metric for calling 20 feet a drop in the bucket or being 26% full. Some number below that, say, 3670, should be the “normal top of the bucket” to allow for unanticipated inflow such as we are experiencing now. I couldn’t find a definition of a conservation pool or normal operating pool for Colorado River reservoirs that you see in other states. 3700 would be great again from a boating perspective, visit Stevens Arch! But that may literally never happen again.
As Mildog said, it was a big drop!
And BTW, is it a Mild Og, or Mil Dog?😂
Click to expand...
I’ll answer to any version there of, a few years back I ran into a fellow Word-ling once at Ticaboo, walking our dogs. He hollered over are you MILE -dog from
Waynes words I said close enough 😝 he says I recognize your cute dog !
It’s actually “Mill -dog” a combo of sorts of two nicknames my buddy that passed had picked up a habit of adding dog at the end of names nicknames ! Billy dog, Joe dog, Bob dog, etc. 😝 He came up with Mildog it stuck .
I carry it with fond memories attached!!
Occasionally I appear as Mile-dog to buddies knowing that story of meeting fellow wordling and more…..🤩
 
Mildog said:
I’ll answer to any version there of, a few years back I ran into a fellow Word-ling once at Ticaboo, walking our dogs. He hollered over are you MILE -dog from
Waynes words I said close enough 😝 he says I recognize your cute dog !
It’s actually “Mill -dog” a combo of sorts of two nicknames my buddy that passed had picked up a habit of adding dog at the end of names nicknames ! Billy dog, Joe dog, Bob dog, etc. 😝 He came up with Mildog it stuck .
I carry it with fond memories attached!!
Occasionally I appear as Mile-dog to buddies knowing that story of meeting fellow wordling and more…..🤩
Click to expand...
LOVE IT!
 
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