March BOR report

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chrisut

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the March BOR report was first available to me today. I tried to access it all last week and couldnt.
gives us an inflow of 9.93 MAF and outflow of 9.0 MAF with end of year elevation at 3592, up 16 feet from the February report; This looks like it is tracking the highest probable inflow from the graph that was released in January. Lots of good water, and I'm assuming that the April report will be quite a bit better than this one and hopefully put us over 10.38 MAF, the 30 year average everything is compared against.
 
birdsnest said:
You and a whole lot of others, including me. New storm coming!
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I sure hope all you 3600+ optimists are right because that should mean all these dry lakes in CO are getting filled! Maybe we can have campfires this year! The snow here in CO seems amazing. I can't help but to think of how dry the summer was in the high country last year. I have high hopes for 3600+ as y'all do but my d**m pessimist side begs to differ.... I hope your right.
 
water coming in is important, but just as important is water going out ---- This report shows they plan on releasing 9.0 MAF -- this is about 10% more than required ( 8.23MAF) -- can someone explain why they are already planning no releasing more than required? --- Is the release amount going to continue to rise as the anticipated incoming amount increases?
 
davew said:
water coming in is important, but just as important is water going out ---- This report shows they plan on releasing 9.0 MAF -- this is about 10% more than required ( 8.23MAF) -- can someone explain why they are already planning no releasing more than required? --- Is the release amount going to continue to rise as the anticipated incoming amount increases?
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Its my understanding that they've been letting out 9.0 MAF for a long time now. If it werent for that Powell would probably be close to full over the last ten years or so...?
 
The water agreement executed about a decade ago requires a balancing of Mead and Powell. If you want a bad headache, you can read the details on a search. Waterbaby has posted it here at least a couple of times.
 
so does anyone know if the 9.0MAF is the cap they will release, or with a good water year they will release more than the 9.0 MAF?
 
davew said:
so does anyone know if the 9.0MAF is the cap they will release, or with a good water year they will release more than the 9.0 MAF?
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The amount they release from LP is, generally speaking, dependent on level of Mead, LP level and and expected inflow. I would call 9.0 the current target and likely release. So, it's not a cap. More would be released if snow water equivalent jumps big time. That's my understanding anyway.
 
Mead is rising pretty quick due to Powell releases.. Mead was and is close to critical levels so that has to be prompting some one to let more out of Powell early cause they know the snowmelt is coming but not willing to wait. Every single impound wants its share of the pie and they want it now. Mead can make or break Powells levels. Huge impact but Powell is doing what it was designed to do. I find it interesting that Mead inflows are not listed in the data chart. Wonder why?
 
The report says that the likely maximum output for Powell this year is 9 million acre feet. In order to get into a increase situation I think we have to be above 3663 or something along those lines this year. The other possibility would be that Mead is below 1075, at a prescribed time of year which I believe is calendar year for Mead and October to October or September to September for Powell
 
It looks that most reservoirs in the upper basin are in the "green dot" range between 90-110% Avg Contents and above with Flaming Gorge actually being "light blue" 110-125% on the Green River side. On the Colorado upper basin side it looks even better with everything "light-blue". Only Blue Mesa and the Navajo side need more water. They are "orange dot", 50-75% as everything in the mid-basin and below but the snow-pack looks really good there.
But of course, someone else said it before in this forum. The ground is bone-dry and that is where every bit of water goes first.

I am not sure how they have set the priorities of what to fill to what extend in which order?

https://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/lmap/lmap.php?interface=damcrit for easier usability and readability, unclick every "Show" box under every tab on right side and just click the ones you are interested in. And secondary, select the info you are curious about.
 
Well if my math is right (somebody please check me) you need to average a daily outflow of about 11300 cfs per day to equal 8.23 MAF for the year, and 12300 cfs/day to get 9 MAF. So I’d watch those numbers in the charts...

As for Lake Mead inflow, you can calculate that indirectly using the numbers they provide for outflow and volume. For example, if outflow is 12000 cfs, and the volume rose by 6000 AF, first off you know inflow exceeds outflow. And since 1 cfs/day more or less equals 2 AF, you can figure the net inflow for the day was 3000 cfs (6000/2)... so if outflow for the day is 12000 cfs, inflow must be 15000 cfs...

Numbers are rough, other factors come into play, but you get the idea...
 
JFRCalifornia said:
Well if my math is right (somebody please check me) you need to average a daily outflow of about 11300 cfs per day to equal 8.23 MAF for the year, and 12300 cfs/day to get 9 MAF. So I’d watch those numbers in the charts...

As for Lake Mead inflow, you can calculate that indirectly using the numbers they provide for outflow and volume. For example, if outflow is 12000 cfs, and the volume rose by 6000 AF, first off you know inflow exceeds outflow. And since 1 cfs/day more or less equals 2 AF, you can figure the net inflow for the day was 3000 cfs (6000/2)... so if outflow for the day is 12000 cfs, inflow must be 15000 cfs...

Numbers are rough, other factors come into play, but you get the idea...
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JFR, you get my eyes crossed so fast but I think I'll say " of course, it's elementary, I knew that."
 
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