January 2019 likely inflow

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Chrisut. What is the minimum elevation for Castle Rock cut to be open? Non jet ski depth.
 
Thanks for posting this data. Looks like we can use the cut again in May and June for sure. I say that because I agree with the most likely blue line and because it is snowing in Page again this morning. We normally don't get a lot of rain or snow in Page so its welcome because we know when it snows here, it is falling in the river drainages as well and will come to LP in the spring time.

Can't wait to go through the Cut again. Fish in Warm Creek will be protected by the low water and lack of fishing boats.
 
My takeaway from the projection is that the lake reaching 3600, where it was just 6 months ago, is not likely in the next couple of years even with 'normal' (i.e. most likely) flows. That's an eye-opening chart in my opinion.
 
My takeaway from the projection is that the lake reaching 3600, where it was just 6 months ago, is not likely in the next couple of years even with 'normal' (i.e. most likely) flows. That's an eye-opening chart in my opinion.

I agree.
weeds
 
I wish projections and snow pack was better. And I know it’s a little more worriesome for southerners trying to use the CRC, but I am a little excited to see how the lake looks at new levels.
 
2/1 (2/15?) update gives the most probable inflow now of 7.7 MAF (vs 6.98 in Jan) with min probable of 4.81 (same), max probable of 10.38 (same: they must be taking yearly averages), and release of 8.91 MAF (original post said release of 8.23, but a closer look at the study saw it was previously 8.625) . It looks like the projected increase in inflow based on the snowfall as of 2/1 (although maybe 2/15?) was .72 MAF and the increase in projected outflow is .285 MAF, so the majority of the additional snowpack seems to be staying in LP based on the USBR interpretations of the guidelines.
end of year projected to be at 3576 (versus 3571 in Jan)
The report was dated 2/15, but says it was issued 2/1. This is a potentially big deal for those of us that follow the numbers as on 2/1 snowpack was about 100% while at 2/15 snowpack was about 115%. I'm hoping they were going with 2/1 number but with Trump's shutdown it took them until 2/15 to get it out.
Either way it is looking better, maybe a little, maybe a lot.
February Study: https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/studies/24Month_02.pdf
here (https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/studies/24Month_01.pdf) is the proper link to the January 24 month study, the other one takes you to the USBR's current published study which is presently February:
 
4/15 update: most probably inflow of 12.11 MAF; minimum probable of 9.68 and maximum probable of 15.26 MAF; min and max end of year probable elevations of 3590.25 and 3632.38. The study says likely elevation of 3561.59 which makes no sense. I get the likely end of year at 3611.31.

Projected release is still 9.0 MAF and the projected end of year level is now approximately 20' higher than last month..... and it has still been wet into April so far which I think bodes well for the lake.
 
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