How low will the lake get in August?

doc

doc

Active Member
I know a lot of us watch the daily water level and data that David posts. It looks like the lake is dropping a foot a wk now. I have a couple of wks planned on the lake in August, one mid month and one late month. Is the lake going to be down to 3520 by late August? Or are there plans to decrease the outflow at the dam? Or increase releases again from Flaming Gorge? At what level will these changes start?
 
doc said:
I know a lot of us watch the daily water level and data that David posts. It looks like the lake is dropping a foot a wk now. I have a couple of wks planned on the lake in August, one mid month and one late month. Is the lake going to be down to 3520 by late August? Or are there plans to decrease the outflow at the dam? Or increase releases again from Flaming Gorge? At what level will these changes start?
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I'm not sure it will be below 3520 in late August but I think by the middle of September it will be near 3520 or below. Lake Powell has already degreed the maximum about to be released from 7.5 maf to 6 maf. look at the sidebar look at Reservoirs above Lake Powell it gives you all of them.
I don't understand the spreadsheet for reservoirs above Lake Powell it has the date the reservoir's name the full capacity, the current capacity and the percentage level. There all below capacity but most are red down yet some are green up,
 
I have the same question for the end of September on the South end. The BOR is saying 3512 which is below the Stateline Aux minimum, but does that minimum include use of boiler plates or just the completed ramp levels? I haven't seen any clear guidance on what to expect at the ramps if the BOR projection holds up, so if anyone knows (or at least has a good idea of what to expect at both the South and North) please pass it along for the folks hoping for a trip in Aug - Oct.

8 ft below min is a lot of distance, but last time we were in this mode, they extended the ramp as the water fell and also did boilerplate. All that is subject to topography but at this point it shouldn't be a secret what to expect if the water level projection is reasonable.
 
doc said:
I know a lot of us watch the daily water level and data that David posts. It looks like the lake is dropping a foot a wk now. I have a couple of wks planned on the lake in August, one mid month and one late month. Is the lake going to be down to 3520 by late August? Or are there plans to decrease the outflow at the dam? Or increase releases again from Flaming Gorge? At what level will these changes start?
Click to expand...
Dvexile gave us this link a couple of months ago. https://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/dbdata/station/flowgraph/flowgraph_hc.html?id=GRZU1&ptype=3&linear_flow=0.
It gives the projected release from Flaming Gorge for about the next week or so. They have been slowly ramping up the release from FG ....just a hundred cfs over the last few days....but it looks like they will jack it up again on the 4th or 5th. It may take some time to get to the 4500 cfs release that was hinted at when they did an experimental release about a month ago.
I don't know about the north end, but Laketime was told by NPS that the Stateline Auxiliary Ramp will be available for launching houseboats until the end of the season. We were assured that our trip in mid-September was a go. The plan is to pour new concrete on half of the ramp while extending the other half on boilerplate for launching.
I believe their plan for release at the damn is also available for the rest of the water year but don't know how to find that.
Maybe one of our resident water gurus will step in and give the full picture or, at least, guide us to the thread where they have already given that info.
 
doc said:
I know a lot of us watch the daily water level and data that David posts. It looks like the lake is dropping a foot a wk now. I have a couple of wks planned on the lake in August, one mid month and one late month. Is the lake going to be down to 3520 by late August? Or are there plans to decrease the outflow at the dam? Or increase releases again from Flaming Gorge? At what level will these changes start?
Click to expand...
If you go by what the USBR's June 2026 24-Month Study says, there is no unusual plan for Flaming Gorge going forward in the next few months. Typically, FG releases from June through September are in the range of 100,000 af per month. That's pretty much in line with the current forecast for July through September, which is about 111,000-121,000 af each month through September, and just a little higher through the end of the year. That translates to an average of about 1,800 cfs each day, and that's pretty much what's happening right now. If they have another "big release" plan for FG, it's not reflected in their current publicly available studies.

It's also worth noting that the total release from FG for WY2026 is forecasted to be just over 1 maf. This compares to the annual releases from FG since 2010:

2010 - 1.17 maf
2011 - 1.98 maf
2012 - 1.39 maf
2013 - 0.82 maf
2014 - 1.03 maf
2015 - 1.35 maf
2016 - 1.61 maf
2017 - 2.73 maf
2018 - 1.62 maf
2019 - 1.42 maf
2020 - 1.40 maf
2021 - 0.83 maf
2022 - 0.99 maf
2023 - 1.15 maf
2024 - 1.23 maf
2025 - 0.91 maf
2026 - 1.05 maf (projected)

You'll see that if anything, releases from FG are lower than in most recent years. The big difference this year is that not much is going into FG from upstream...
 
Robert:
Maybe one of our resident water gurus will step in and give the full picture or, at least, guide us to the thread where they have already given that info.

Ask and you shall receive.
 
JFRCalifornia said:
If you go by what the USBR's June 2026 24-Month Study says, there is no unusual plan for Flaming Gorge going forward in the next few months. Typically, FG releases from June through September are in the range of 100,000 af per month. That's pretty much in line with the current forecast for July through September, which is about 111,000-121,000 af each month through September, and just a little higher through the end of the year. That translates to an average of about 1,800 cfs each day, and that's pretty much what's happening right now. If they have another "big release" plan for FG, it's not reflected in their current publicly available studies.

It's also worth noting that the total release from FG for WY2026 is forecasted to be just over 1 maf. This compares to the annual releases from FG since 2010:

2010 - 1.17 maf
2011 - 1.98 maf
2012 - 1.39 maf
2013 - 0.82 maf
2014 - 1.03 maf
2015 - 1.35 maf
2016 - 1.61 maf
2017 - 2.73 maf
2018 - 1.62 maf
2019 - 1.42 maf
2020 - 1.40 maf
2021 - 0.83 maf
2022 - 0.99 maf
2023 - 1.15 maf
2024 - 1.23 maf
2025 - 0.91 maf
2026 - 1.05 maf (projected)

You'll see that if anything, releases from FG are lower than in most recent years. The big difference this year is that not much is going into FG from upstream...
Click to expand...
Flaming George as of July 3, 2026 is slightly lower than FG was on July 3, 2022 according to the 5 year graph they have for Lake reservoirs.
 
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