JFRCalifornia
Keeper of San Juan Secrets
USBR just issued an update to its lake level projections for the year, and there's no real surprises. As of February 18, they project that the lake will most likely bottom out just above 3600 toward the end of March, and then rise to about 3617, peaking sometime in June. Lake volume at that time would be about 13.5 MAF, or about 55% full. Total lake inflows for this water year are projected to be 80% of average, or a total inflow of about 8.6 MAF, with historic inflow average being about 10.8. Last year total inflow was about 13 MAF. So they see this year as not nearly as good as last year. Of course, they admit there is great uncertainty in these projections, because much depends on the runoff ahead. As you all remember, they were basically saying the same things at this time last year, and then we had that incredible late season deluge that changed everything...
Their "maximum" scenario (which was developed in January) would have total inflows being about 12.8 MAF, or similar to last year. In that case the lake would end up in the neighborhood of 3650--much higher than was possible last year, since the bottom this year will be closer to 3600, compared to about 3568 last year... On the other hand, the "minimum" scenario sees only a 6.4 MAF inflow, in which case the lake ends up somewhere south of 3610... but given the current snowpack levels above the lake, which is a little above average, I tend to think the "minimum" scenario is unlikely at this point...
They update their projections each month, but they won't update their "max" and "min" projections until April, and then again every three months..
Here's a link to all this info:
www.usbr.gov
Stay tuned!
Their "maximum" scenario (which was developed in January) would have total inflows being about 12.8 MAF, or similar to last year. In that case the lake would end up in the neighborhood of 3650--much higher than was possible last year, since the bottom this year will be closer to 3600, compared to about 3568 last year... On the other hand, the "minimum" scenario sees only a 6.4 MAF inflow, in which case the lake ends up somewhere south of 3610... but given the current snowpack levels above the lake, which is a little above average, I tend to think the "minimum" scenario is unlikely at this point...
They update their projections each month, but they won't update their "max" and "min" projections until April, and then again every three months..
Here's a link to all this info:
Glen Canyon Dam | Water Operations | UC Region | Bureau of Reclamation
Bureau of Reclamation - Managing water and power in the West
Stay tuned!
Last edited:
