Fed & State Energy 'Policy'....and how it relates to "our" Lake & future Lake Levels....:)

[Rainbowbridge]

OK, I'll start with.....Our Dam was constructed for multiple reasons, water storage yes, but also for providing electricity for what most forward thinking folks predicted would be tremendous growth in the southwest.

And wouldn't we agree that hydro electric is the most pollution free way to create electricity? If not, would love to hear thoughts.....

Can 'our' dam be reasonably modified to lower power pool & dead pool elevations if it becomes necessary?

I personally found the recent post 'Glen Canyon Dam Head Hydropower Modifications' power point SO fascinating and thought provoking.....

So, having been in the solar biz for years, I'd love to hear Wordling's thoughts/ideas.....and if this thread doesn't get nasty or political....maybe Bart will let it stay up..... .....for a while??

Ok, helmet is firmly attached.........

 

[DVexile]

It generates 0.1% of the total US power consumption. US generation grows by 2 to 3% a year at present. If power was part of its original purpose, it really isn’t that important anymore.

But if you’ve already got to move water down a gradient for water management, then might as well do something useful with it when you can!

Attempting to lower the head for extended power generation wouldn’t seem economically viable. The lower the head, the less power you can sell anyway, so you are spending more money for less marginal return.

 

[ndscott50]

Agree, I don’t see much benefit to spending a huge amount of money to allow power plant operation at lower levels, if it’s even possible. In the end it only would provide a short term benefit. Sure, we could free up maybe a half million to one million acre feet, but once that’s gone all it takes is another poor snow year and you are in the same place as before, just at a lower levels.

On power generation, yes it’s a small part of total US and regional generation. We can replace it with limited pain - though some specific local and regional utilities will feel some pain from buying power on the open market.

The power generation is important for the BOR. About 60 to 80 percent of the BOR budget is covered by power sales in any given year. Between 30 and 50 percent of that revenue is generated by Glen Canyon Dam. The power generated at Powell funds a huge amount of what the BOR does in terms of maintaining and operating its infrastructure across the upper Colorado River basin.

BOR’s stated reason for keeping Powell above minimum power pool is the risk of operating below that level to the infrastructure. I think those concerns are valid but it’s also important to note the unstated financial considerations at play here.

 

[ndscott50]

US generation grows by 2 to 3% a year at present. If power was part of its original purpose, it really isn’t that important anymore.

Interesting side note on US electric power demand. From the end of world war 2 until 2008 US electric power demand grew almost every year. It was as high as 5 or 6 percent in the 50’s and almost always in the 2 to 3 percent range in the 90 and early 2000’s.

The Great Recession ended that growth streak and when the economy recovered growth in power demand did not. I believe US electric power generation in 2023 was less than 2007. For the last decade the EIA was forecasting power demand to remain flat for the foreseeable future.

It was only in 2024 that we started to see growth in power demand return. This was primarily driven by huge investment in manufacturing facilities (chip, battery, automotive and pharmaceutical plants were the big driver). Note construction spending on manufacturing plants rose from 80 billion annually in 2021 to 240 billion annually in 2024. This has been followed by the data center boom - construction spending there has risen from 10 billion to 55 billion over the last three years, and it’s still increasing by two billion a month.

This unforeseen rise in demand is creating all kinds of challenges for power production. We spent almost 20 years focused on shifting our fuel mix away from coal to renewables in an environment of flat to declining demand. Pretty suddenly the market shifted where increasing capacity is now a critical concern. It’s going to take some time to figure out how the utility industry can address this.

 

[Halls'65]

As far as hydro-electric power being the most pollution free, I would agree if the power source, Lake Powell, is ignored. The amount of pollution created at, on, and around the lake, including Page, needs to be included in any pollution assessment. In addition, the environmental impact the lake has made, like the sand dunes at Hite and the 1800 mile ugly highwater mark, and trash and driftwood piles, Quagga mussels should be accounted for. Not to mention the earth's crust deformation and potential earthquakes from the weight of the lake water.

Other powered electrical power sources, like coal and nuclear, now days, may be cleaner because of all the monitoring and anti-pollution equipment installed at these power sources.