End of Oct - Max Prob of 3519.50 vs 3532?

[Fickle River]

And so it’s mind blowing that we could end the month of October some 12 feet higher than what was projected as the max probability number just a few weeks ago.

 

[AndyMAC]

And so it’s mind blowing that we could end the month of October some 12 feet higher than what was projected as the max probability number just a few weeks ago.

If it just continues to go up even 1" per day for the next 30 days instead of down the same 1"(5' swing) that's a huge win or even if it just stayed the same instead of dropping another 2.5' ...This gift of "free water" is close to 4mo worth of releases and we still have 5 months of hopefully wet weather ahead. I hope the communities that are flooded out get the help they need though.

 

[Skip]

All the rain/water is welcome and appreciated but it sure is hard to equate that appreciation with the misery the floods are causing.
Our prayers are with the effected people.

 

[JFRCalifornia]

The story isn't even close to being written yet, but the signposts are hard to miss. Here are a couple of the many factoids that are just hard to grasp:

1. The Max Probable forecast (issued just over a week ago) assumed Lake Powell would rise about 6 inches in October, and gain about 80,000 AF in volume. So far in October (through Oct 26), it has risen about 10 feet, and gained 600,000 AF in volume. Most of that occurred in the past 5 days or so.

2. For Navajo Reservoir, it's even more dramatic. The Max Probable forecast projected a 1.5-foot rise, adding about 20,000 AF to the reservoir. What has actually happened so far in October is mind-boggling: A 29-foot rise, adding 280,000 AF to the reservoir. The lake rose almost 9 feet on October 23 alone...

Imagine the downstream ramifications if Navajo Dam was not there...

 

[upthecreek]

2. For Navajo Reservoir, it's even more dramatic. The Max Probable forecast projected a 1.5-foot rise, adding about 20,000 AF to the reservoir. What has actually happened so far in October is mind-boggling: A 29-foot rise, adding 280,000 AF to the reservoir. The lake rose almost 9 feet on October 23 alone...

Imagine the downstream ramifications if Navajo Dam was not there...

Just wait. It will take less spring runoff to fill it now. So more of this forecast snow stands a chance of making it to Powell.