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CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS

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Waterbaby

Escalante-Class Member
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
10 May 2018

ENSO Alert System Status: Final La Niña Advisory

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored through September-November 2018, with the possibility of El Niño nearing 50% by Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19.
During April 2018, the tropical Pacific returned to ENSO-neutral, as indicated by mostly near-to- below average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) along the equator (Fig. 1). The latest weekly Niño indices were near zero in all regions (between +0.2°C and -0.3°C), except for Niño-1+2, which remained negative (-0.6°C; Fig. 2). Subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) remained positive (Fig. 3), due to the continued influence of a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave (Fig. 4). Atmospheric indictors related to La Niña also continued to fade. While convection remained suppressed near and east of the Date Line, rainfall near Indonesia was also below average during the month (Fig. 5). Low-level winds were near average over most of the tropical Pacific Ocean, and upper-level winds were anomalous westerly over the eastern Pacific. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system reflected a return to ENSO-neutral.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict ENSO-neutral to continue at least through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2018 (Fig. 6). As the fall and winter approaches, many models indicate an increasing chance for El Niño. Therefore, the forecaster consensus hedges in the direction of El Niño as the winter approaches, but given the considerable uncertainty in ENSO forecasts made at this time of year, the probabilities for El Niño are below 50%. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored through September-November 2018, with the possibility of El Niño nearing 50% by Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum. Next update June 18, 2018.
 

John P Funk

Escalante-Class Member
El Nino = Good
La Nina = Bad
Neutral = Meh(Average)

These predictive models have become more accurate as data is collected, but there are obviously no guarantees. Based on this data it looks like next water year should be better than this one(it would be hard not to be), but only time will tell.
 

Waterbaby

Escalante-Class Member
That doesn't sound good.

Both Enso Neutral and ElNino are good news. With ENSO neutral we can expect normal monsoon season this summer. With El Nino we can expect more moisture in the SW also a good thing. With La Nina - which we were in since last summer winds blow due west in the summer and we don't get the moisture coming up from Mexico in the summer and the storms in the winter go up and over Canada into the eastern part of the USA and in general we remain dry. What is bad is when we go into La Nina... the other two are much better for us. Not guaranteed, but much higher chances we will get rain in summer and the Rockies get snow in winter.
 

Waterbaby

Escalante-Class Member

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS

and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society

14 June 2018


ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch



Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere summer 2018, with the chance for El Niño increasing to 50% during fall, and ~65% during winter 2018-19.



ENSO-neutral continued during May, as indicated by mostly average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). The latest weekly Niño indices were between +0.2°C and 0.0°C, except for the Niño-1+2 index, which remained negative (-0.5°C; Fig. 2). Positive subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) increased over the past month (Fig. 3), as another downwelling equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave reinforced the already above-average subsurface temperatures (Fig. 4). Convection remained suppressed near the Date Line and was slightly enhanced over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Low-level and upper-level winds were near average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Overall, oceanic and atmospheric conditions reflected ENSO-neutral.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict ENSO-neutral to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2018, with El Niño most likely thereafter (Fig. 6). The forecaster consensus favors the onset of El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere fall, which would then continue through winter. These forecasts are supported by the ongoing build-up of heat within the tropical Pacific Ocean. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere summer 2018, with the chance for El Niño increasing to 50% during fall, and ~65% during winter 2018-19 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 12 July 2018. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
 
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