Castle Rock Cut.

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birdsnest

Keeper of San Juan Secrets
We will be taking our yearly week long fishing trip starting May 16th. What do you think the odds are that the cut will be open on 16th. Looks like good snow so far.
 
If past runoff history tells us anything, the runoff usually starts in early May. It would have to raise the lake at least 10', likely more like 15' (since it's 5.5' dry right now and still going down), before the cut becomes usable this year, so I'm placing odds for a usable Castle Rock Cut on May 16th at <5%, but I sure as heck hope I'm wrong.
 
I agree with Pegasus, but am even less optimistic... you really need 3583 to have any chance of getting through there with any clearance, and it's about 3574.5 right now...still going down at about a foot per week till best guess April 30, so it will be about 3569 or so by then...and would need a 14-foot rise in 16 days to get to 3583, which I'm going to call nearly impossible for the first two weeks of May... To use the example of 2011, which was a big rebound year, it bottomed out at 3610 on April 9, and hit a peak of 3661 on July 30. But even with that huge 50-foot rise, and an early April low point, it only rose two feet or so in the first two weeks of May. Most of the rise was in June and even early July that year after the runoff really got going... So now I'm going to go out on a limb and say there's really no chance for the Cut to be open on May 16... but I hope I'm wrong.
 
JFRCalifornia, I did say <5%, which does include ZERO haha....in 2017 the lake had about a 40' rise, and the runoff started early in mid-March and had gone up 15' by mid-May, so it IS possible but highly unlikely this year.....I was being the eternal optimist saying <5% chance;)
 
Yeah, I'm hoping for a flying pig but I've seen some amazing gains in the past. Can only hope. It's already a long run to Paiute Canyon. Not sure it can be made in one day with a houseboat pulling 3 fishing boats. Did o k last year but the cut was open. I also am an optimist.
 
I like the optimism Pegasus! And you're right about 2017, which saw an early runoff... and yes, the rise from the March 15 low to May 16 was about 16 feet... :) So okay, let's call it technically possible...but only if warms up fast by the middle of March...

But I'm still calling it a "flying pigs" situation... of course the Cubs finally won the World Series a couple of years ago, so you never know...
 
maybe if they started digging tomorrow and cleared out another 10ft. we could use it at some point this spring (late) or early summer. But I'm not holding my breath. I'm thinking strong about the north end next may for my trip
 
2017, the snowpack was around 160% of average on February 12. We would need the ridiculous stream of moisture that is pouring in now to keep going for the next couple months....but it is possible!! The snow is getting very deep in Jackson already!!
 
That reminds me of the first trip through the cut, that spring, by the “Tail Dragger” so many years ago by The Petester. No, I wasn’t there but I remember the pictures. Sq
I don't think they used Tall Dragger on that trip. Seems like it was a small tin boat. And remember the pics of the motorhome when they got back to Lone Rock, the lake had risen clear up to the door.
 
I was there with Pete. It was about 6 inches deep, little tin boat with trolling motor full blast, with a chocolate rooster tail!
Thanks for the come back, now my old brain feels better. As over powered as tail dragger was maybe if you had used it you could have deepened the cut a couple feet.
 
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