At what high point water level does the cut remain passable during low point of following year.

[bubba]

At what high point water level does the cut remain passable during low point of following year.



For me the CUT is a deal breaker. When it is passable we take more trips to Powell, when it is dry, we shift some of our plans to other destinations.



At the end of the day it is no big deal to spend a few extra hours at power or even deal with the Grand Canal style chaotic madness at AP, I think my motivation has simply dropped over the years and it is easier to just go somewhere else when the cut is dry.



So... at what water level does the lake need to exceed at its high point for the year to permit save passage through the cut at the low point the following spring at adjusted high flow balance.



With at least 5 feet of water in the cut at annual low point I am happy.

 

[Dungee]

A lot lower high point than Hite’s minimum to launch, so just be happy, it could be worse...

 

[Noonan32]

At what high point water level does the cut remain passable during low point of following year.



For me the CUT is a deal breaker. When it is passable we take more trips to Powell, when it is dry, we shift some of our plans to other destinations.



At the end of the day it is no big deal to spend a few extra hours at power or even deal with the Grand Canal style chaotic madness at AP, I think my motivation has simply dropped over the years and it is easier to just go somewhere else when the cut is dry.



So... at what water level does the lake need to exceed at its high point for the year to permit save passage through the cut at the low point the following spring at adjusted high flow balance.



With at least 5 feet of water in the cut at annual low point I am happy.

From my quick and very rough observation, it looks like the draw down from the yearly high to the following low is typically between 20 and 30 feet. This would suggest that if the cut was at least 35 feet deep at the summer high, then it would likely be passable at the spring low the following year. If we have a summer high water mark of 3615, the cut should be usable the following spring. Because 2017 was such a dismal water year, the draw down was over 40 feet, and this estimate would not apply.
I'm sure one of the expert water watchers here on WW has data and a spreadsheet detailing to the nearest inch what each of the past 40 years would have been related to the depth of the cut, but this is my quick and dirty amateur calculation.

 

[Trix]

USBR produces their 24 Month Studies around the 15th of every month based on water data available around the 1st of the month. The 24 months covers the current and subsequent water years beginning Oct 1. So their June forecast for Powell's low point for this coming winter is pretty solid as they control Powell releases and the watershed runoff is now pretty certain at this point. So, long winded explanation to say you can plan your trip with low point of 3613, about 30 feet above the cut minimum level for travel.

 

[Trix]

BTW, anyone can be water knowledgeable by going to Wayne's home page and exploring the Lake Powell Water Database and the USBR Water Operations. On those sites click on the various highlighted links to details and virtually any water question can be answered. Takes a little patience to find the historical and forecasted data, but it's all there.

 

[JFRCalifornia]

Trix is right based on the Bureau's projections--they predict a low point of around 3613 for next spring, about 30 feet over the minimum usable level for the Cut.

Historically, the drawdown from the previous season's high point typicially ranges from 20-30 feet. Sometimes it's as high as 40 feet (as in 2012-13), or as low as 6 feet (as in 1982-83)...but the average is in the mid-20s. Since 2000, the average drawdown each year has been 26 feet from previous season peak. If the lake peaks somewhere north of 3620, it would need to drop somewhere around 40 feet for the Cut to be unusable next year. And the Bureau won't be releasing anywhere near enough water this winter to drop it that much.

Bottom line--you'll be able to use the Cut next year.