2024 Farmer's Almanac predicts cold/wet winter
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Pretty good hoax when you can keep it going for 230 years. 
Dorado
Keeper of San Juan Secrets
I think this sums it up pretty well….Pretty good hoax when you can keep it going for 230 years.
Why the Farmer’s Almanac Is About as Accurate as a Coin Flip
It might be right sometimes, but it’s pure pseudoscience.
Rainbowbridge
Keeper of San Juan Secrets
As my Dear Mom said: 'We shall see'
Perhaps she was referring to her children turning out OK.....one in particular??
She surely was disappointed......
And so hated to be called Shirley.........
Bottom line, who knows, we'll see, but yes, kinda fun to speculate & ruminate......
On a serious note, I'd always believed the Farmer's Almanac was pretty accurate over the 100+ years......
was I mistaken? Yet again? Wordlings thoughts?
Perhaps she was referring to her children turning out OK.....one in particular??
She surely was disappointed......
And so hated to be called Shirley.........Bottom line, who knows, we'll see, but yes, kinda fun to speculate & ruminate......
On a serious note, I'd always believed the Farmer's Almanac was pretty accurate over the 100+ years......
was I mistaken? Yet again? Wordlings thoughts?
Trix
Keeper of San Juan Secrets
As the grouchy Popular Mechanics author wrote:
People will remember the prediction this winter and recall how the Almanac got it right; they’ll just never think about the times it was wrong.
I think that observation can cut both ways. Funny how weather folks don’t include, say, a weekly or monthly report card on their forecast accuracy. Maybe such things are readily available and can certainly be reconstructed by energetic hobbyists. JFR and other Wordlings regularly demonstrate forecast accuracy or lack thereof.
Maybe Bart needs to create another WW category, Watershed Weather and Water.. Bart needs to stay REALLY busy.
People will remember the prediction this winter and recall how the Almanac got it right; they’ll just never think about the times it was wrong.
I think that observation can cut both ways. Funny how weather folks don’t include, say, a weekly or monthly report card on their forecast accuracy. Maybe such things are readily available and can certainly be reconstructed by energetic hobbyists. JFR and other Wordlings regularly demonstrate forecast accuracy or lack thereof.
Maybe Bart needs to create another WW category, Watershed Weather and Water.
. Bart needs to stay REALLY busy.Canyon Glen
Well-Known Member
Had a weatherman predict 100% chance of rain in the viewing area for the next day
The next day it didn't rain a drop.
He didn't lose his job
The next day it didn't rain a drop.
He didn't lose his job
Rainbowbridge
Keeper of San Juan Secrets
My brother worked at a TV station in San Diego for 32 years, and my sis for 27.....
They would lower their voices, make sure no one was listening and say:
Ya know in the weather 'forecasting center' part of the newsroom there's the weather dartboard?
Well.............'heat wave' is right next to 'cold snap', which is right next to blizzard, which is right next to hurricane.
was such fun to watch the monkey throw the dart...............(film @ 11)
They would lower their voices, make sure no one was listening and say:
Ya know in the weather 'forecasting center' part of the newsroom there's the weather dartboard?
Well.............'heat wave' is right next to 'cold snap', which is right next to blizzard, which is right next to hurricane.
was such fun to watch the monkey throw the dart...............(film @ 11)
nzaugg
Escalante-Class Member
Mark Eubank has been working on a long term (1-year) weather forecast for over 40 years. At one point he nearly gave up because he decided it would be impossible. Then he refocused on a 6-month forecast using the remote sensor technologies that have been developed over the past 20 years. I still think it is too complicated a system to adequately model over anything but 2-weeks for the time being. You can get a good forecast for one or two days, but anything over three is very flexible still.
When Jurassic Park came out, Chaos Theory came into vogue and people liked to talk about the butterfly flapping its wings in the amazon causing tornados in Oklahoma. I don't think people really understood the point of the conversation though. The idea behind chaos theory is that no matter how good the model is, eventually there will be divergence when you try to model very specific outcomes over a long period of time. Because we can't incorporate every input into a model, we have to make simplifications that result in sources of error. The butterfly didn't cause the tornado in Oklahoma, though it may have resulted in a slight deviation in the path that could not be predicted, resulting in a failure of the intended purpose of a modeled system.
Models also work off of past observations. When conditions in an area match up with past experiences, we tend to predict that the same thing will occur. For instance, when we have a heavy wind and the barometer drops, we generally expect a storm to be moving into the area and anticipate rainfall. Most weather models do the same thing, but from much greater distances, using much more complicated instruments, but it is all about observation. Sometimes, the weather system deviates significantly from past experiences though, as we saw this past winter when past experience caused NWS and most other forecasters to predict a below average winter. With this additional data, along with an attempt to determine what was different from the past that resulted in wet conditions, the models are being updated and improved. Over time, the models will get much better in their percent accuracy, but will never be 100%.
The best weather instrument I have ever seen is still the weather rock that hangs from my dad's cabin porch. It has a means of interpretation next to it:
When Jurassic Park came out, Chaos Theory came into vogue and people liked to talk about the butterfly flapping its wings in the amazon causing tornados in Oklahoma. I don't think people really understood the point of the conversation though. The idea behind chaos theory is that no matter how good the model is, eventually there will be divergence when you try to model very specific outcomes over a long period of time. Because we can't incorporate every input into a model, we have to make simplifications that result in sources of error. The butterfly didn't cause the tornado in Oklahoma, though it may have resulted in a slight deviation in the path that could not be predicted, resulting in a failure of the intended purpose of a modeled system.
Models also work off of past observations. When conditions in an area match up with past experiences, we tend to predict that the same thing will occur. For instance, when we have a heavy wind and the barometer drops, we generally expect a storm to be moving into the area and anticipate rainfall. Most weather models do the same thing, but from much greater distances, using much more complicated instruments, but it is all about observation. Sometimes, the weather system deviates significantly from past experiences though, as we saw this past winter when past experience caused NWS and most other forecasters to predict a below average winter. With this additional data, along with an attempt to determine what was different from the past that resulted in wet conditions, the models are being updated and improved. Over time, the models will get much better in their percent accuracy, but will never be 100%.
The best weather instrument I have ever seen is still the weather rock that hangs from my dad's cabin porch. It has a means of interpretation next to it:
- If the rock is warm, it is sunny.
- If the rock is wet, it is rainy.
- If the rock is white, it is snowy.
- If the rock is swaying, it is windy.
- If the rock is bouncing, it is an earthquake.
B. Stanton
Active Member
We have it easier in the winter in the PNW.
Weather forecasting in Seattle between Nov.1 and Memorial Day:
Stick your hand out the window. If it's wet when you pull it back, it's raining. If it's dry, it's going to rain.
Weather forecasting in Seattle between Nov.1 and Memorial Day:
Stick your hand out the window. If it's wet when you pull it back, it's raining. If it's dry, it's going to rain.
Dorado
Keeper of San Juan Secrets
So true for the Wet side! Gray and bleak for 8 months, but often glorious the rest of the year. But how much snow the Mtns will get is just as much of a mystery as anywhere else out west.We have it easier in the winter in the PNW.
Weather forecasting in Seattle between Nov.1 and Memorial Day:
Stick your hand out the window. If it's wet when you pull it back, it's raining. If it's dry, it's going to rain.
The whole "El Nino" versus "La Nina" thing is a pretty tenuous link between wet and dry and cold or warm winters. IMHO, the blocking high pressure systems and their influence on the track of winter storms seems to be the dominant feature affecting the amount of precipitation we end up getting...
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