2017 likely inflow infographic

[chrisut]

I saw this on facebook and thought it was interesting.

https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/studies/images/PowellForecast.png

most likely inflow of 9.6 MAF seems low to me.... I could be wrong and often am.

 

[shanewave]

Yeah, let's hope for the max load. With SWE's so high, I too think 9.6 is far too conservative.

 

[JRP]

It does not make any sense to me -- Snowpack is currently 152%. In 2011 which had an inflow of over 12 MAF the snowpack was between 115% and 120% for all of March - http://snowpack.water-data.com/uppercolorado/index.php
Maybe I am missing something but it seems to me the inflow should be at least 12 MAF and likely quite a bit more than that.

 

[Squirrel]

Someone will find a reason to let out a bunch of water. Sq

 

[capt-capsaicin]

I found the February 2011 24-Month Study and they had a projected inflow of 9.2 maf in that report. https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/24mo/2011/MAR11.pdf

The 12.5 maf for April-July 2011 was actual inflow not projected. Since the maximum snow pack is April 15th and the SWE for 2011 is flat through that date it shows that we kept getting snow through that date or that temperatures were low enough to keep it in place.

If you look at the SWE graph for 2011 you will also see that the snowpack lingered well into June with a crazy 300% of normal in June. http://snowpack.water-data.com/uppercolorado/index.php

I think 2011 was just an exceptional water year.

 

[drcalderwood]

2011 was such a banner year because of the late snows. Once March came, the big storms rolled in and continued through June.

 

[capt-capsaicin]

The March 24 Month study is out now and the forecast is for a 10.4 MAF for April to July with a total of 14.3 MAF for the water year.

 

[Dorado]

The weather pattern is shifting with more moisture on the way. Temperatures are still pretty warm, since the systems are coming out of the southwest, but at least it is not record highs like the past few weeks!

In the Upper Green, we have yet to hit 50, but the valley snow has been melting like crazy. Rivers and creeks are running 300%-800% of average, and the snowpack is still 175% of average.

 

[TR.]

The weather pattern is shifting with more moisture on the way. Temperatures are still pretty warm, since the systems are coming out of the southwest, but at least it is not record highs like the past few weeks!

In the Upper Green, we have yet to hit 50, but the valley snow has been melting like crazy. Rivers and creeks are running 300%-800% of average, and the snowpack is still 175% of average.

LOL I pulled a Smith permit for May 4 thinking I would get on right before run off based on historical data.

TR