I don't believe a lack of "mid-lake" marina has reduced the overall number of visitors. It has merely increased the density of users nearer the existing marinas. I can't imagine cancelling a houseboat trip simply because I couldn't refuel at DR. If it were me, I would either change my destination or carry extra fuel.
I think this is exactly right. Recent visitation statistics bear this out. To keep it simple, I'll just look at what's happened since 2017 (I'm not counting this year, because the data is still incomplete). Here is overall visitation in the GCNRA from 2017-22, which include boaters and non-boaters alike:
2017 - 4.5 million
2018 - 4.2 million
2019 - 4.3 million
2020 - 2.5 million
2021 - 3.1 million
2022 - 2.8 million
The main storyline that jumps out at you there is that GCNRA had its highest visitation ever from 2017-19 (it had never exceeded 4 million until 2017), and then COVID hit in 2020. No shock that visitation fell off the table that year, but only to pre-2017 levels, which were usually in the 2-2.5 million range all the way back to 1994. So you figure, correctly, that visitation would bounce back in 2021, and it did--up about 20%. Okay, so what about 2022? Why didn't the rise continue? Well, the 10% drop in 2022 turns out to be no real surprise either, since in almost every year when the lake drops significantly, so does visitation. This happened like clockwork in 2000-04, 2012, 2013, and 2018, all of which saw the lake dropping fast.
So now let's get to John P Funk's hypothesis. Remember that Dangling Rope went out of commission in May 2021. Well, even though it was out for the rest of the summer, my guess is that by then, most people already had their summer plans in place. If they were planning to leave from Wahweap, they were still leaving from there, and the same with Bullfrog. But as 2022 rolled around, and DR showed no signs of life, a lot of people had time to change their summer plans. Some either chose not to visit at all (mostly because of declining lake levels), or if they did visit, limited their boating to be closer to the marinas because DR was out of commission. And of course, anecdotally, we know how empty mid-lake became in 2022 (and 2023 for that matter). But at the same time, we also sensed how crowded it became from Wahweap to Rock Creek. The data tell an interesting story:
Change in all visitation to GCNRA from 2021 to 2022: down 10%
No real surprise there, with the drought in full swing, COVID still in the back of some people's minds, and boaters nervous about DR, that put a damper on overall visitation. But look at what happens when you focus on just recreational trips, meaning mostly boat trips (as opposed to visiting places like Horseshoe Bend, Lees Ferry, or sightseeing on the lake). The boaters still came out, with no real drop off from 2021:
Change in recreational trips (mostly boating) lakewide from 2021 to 2022: up 2%
Now you'd think that the steady boating numbers would be reflected evenly from any marina on the lake. But no, it was heavily weighted toward Wahweap (and probably Antelope Point too, but NPS doesn't specifically track that marina). Here's what you found:
Change in recreational visits originating from Wahweap from 2021 to 2022: up 33% (!!)
Wow. What is that saying? I think it's saying that a lot more boating people in 2022 wanted to go to Powell, and the boaters came, but opted for shorter trips (more day trips) focused closer to Wahweap, likely because of the lack of fuel up the lake, and to some extent, fear of declining lake levels. And so you ended up with huge crowds at the south end, and almost nobody in midlake. And as for Bullfrog, it was smaller crowds than usual, mostly near the marina. The remoteness of Bullfrog and uncertain infrastructure there will always keep crowds down, and they don’t seem to be coming back.
So really, the only people really traveling to midlake (say, between Rock Creek and the Escalante) were the few very well prepared folks with long-range fuel capacity (mostly out of Wahweap), and they're able to do it either because of the very expensive boat they own, or because they came ready with lots of gas cans and know how to deal with emergencies. And I'll bet a majority of those folks are contributors to this website.
So while a few folks here on this site are adamant about keeping midlake fuel closed down, I'd argue that's really not a good idea. Besides the safety issues of being stranded midlake common to the less experienced, especially renters (plus those rental boats are not always reliable), and the rescue efforts needed to deal with those incidents, the resulting heavy boat concentration closer to Wahweap also creates its own safety issues. That's especially true when the Cut is closed. It also creates an environment where people fight over beaches, or wake boats are more concentrated closer to those beaches or other boats, creating not just safety hazards, but emotional tension and possible violence. It's just too crowded downlake without DR or its equivalent in place.
I can tell you with certainty that as a renter, until the midlake fuel issue is resolved, I'm only renting out of Bullfrog. It's an extra 3 hours for me to drive there, but totally worth it to avoid those problems. And from Bullfrog, you can feasibly go north, turn around, refuel, and go south. The Escalante is in range. You can see a lot more lake without taking extraordinary efforts to bring gas, and you don't have to hunker down past Antelope Point, through the Straits, a sea of wake boats, and just general summer boating chaos just to get to a little peace and quiet.
It's either that, or you just go in the fall. If you can get the time off to do that. Not everyone can.
I love the south end, a lot of my favorite canyons are there, but without DR that part of the lake has become a summer zoo, just a place to get through, a few hours of a bumpy ride, gritting the teeth, and hoping for a quiet corner at the end of the day. Not my idea of fun. Probably others (who can only go in the summer) feel the same way. Now at the same time, I (and others who are prepared) know it's the way to the fantastic midlake canyons between Rock Creek and the Escalante, and for most a Page base is a lot easier logistically than a Bullfrog base. That means for those who have fast boats who want to go uplake, they
will go fast, and through the crowds of boats in a shrunken Padre Bay. A recipe for conflict, and sometimes not safe. For others, without DR they just don't try to go that far, because they just don't have the means or ability to get there. And so they're stuck in the crowds along Padre or Gunsight, or are subject to the occasional horror story of being squeezed out of their campsite along Labyrinth Bay by a few rude houseboat flotillas. Should those people who want to go uplake be excluded so it becomes a personal playground for just a few? That idea runs counter to the whole concept behind the GCNRA...
NPS needs to prioritize a midlake refueling stop.
