Tiff Mapel

Escalante-Class Member
Spent a fabulous weekend at Powell, doing a beach clean up at Wahweap on Saturday morning. Then walked the Cut in the afternoon. Took two bags of trash out of the Cut, and assessed the rock pile situation. There are three major rock piles that you'll want to avoid, all on the Antelope Island side of the Cut. All are around the middle of the Cut. A really large cottonwood tree in there, too. Hopefully NPS can get some front-end loaders in there to remove those rocks. Or not? It might be a "use at your own risk" kind of deal this year. I wouldn't want to use the cut until the water reaches 3590.

Thanks for your report, Tiff. There appears to be additional funds available to NPS/GCNRA this year. A note to Michele Kerns, Superintendent, encouraging them to remove hazards in the cut might help. I can only find PO Box 507, Page 86040. Email address?
How long does the park service have to act on this with a bulldozer before it goes underwater?
That depends? I'm sure they have a lengthy protocol in place that they have to follow. So I would say about mid-June might be pushing it? By then the ground in the Cut will be getting saturated, and it would be risky getting heavy machinery in there. I hope something happens sooner rather than later.

Probability is when you apply statistics, data analytics, fuzzy mathematical models or historical patterns to estimate future values.

The probability of NPS doing anything to improve or resolve the hazard in the cut is LESS THAN ZERO. Basically, their past actions illustrate zero pattern of resolution in this issue.

And you cannot divide by zero.

I think the world will be lucky if the NPS even applied the tiny effort needed to add a single hazard buoy.

The event of rocks in the cut from wall slide off and wall collapse will continue forever until the grade and slope of the side walls is reduced - think LA rain canal side slope.

Without water in the cut there is no load or pressure acting back against the side of the vertical rock wall so the aggregate compression loads at the wall base and sides wants to blow out toward the weakest plane of resistance and that is the air side. Water in the cut will not prevent sidewall collapse but it will reduce it. To prevent it, the side wall angle must get much flattened so the load resistance is vertical and not horizontal. Ironically, you can see that natural grade right now at the base of the walls where silt has already formed that slope.

Get some more vinegar bottles to mark the hazard - this is a self rescue situation.