The Colorado River is drying up because of climate change, putting millions at risk of 'severe water shortages' - CNN

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Don't forget that at a point in the not-so-distant past(geologically speaking) that there were no icecaps and most of the Southwest was a giant inland sea(we find seashells on our farm near the four corners). Could mankind not have survived under these conditions? The UN council on climate change doesn't say that mankind will have a massive extinction event, but rather that it will be expensive to deal with the consequences of climate change. The system, to my mind, is really too complex to predict outcomes that make me feel comfortable destroying economies(via Green New Deal style legislation) to maintain a status quo, or even worse attempt to reverse a trend that may or may not be human influenced. Note that something other than human influence caused a dramatic reduction in climate temperatures.
 
Just to throw another tasty nugget of knowledge out there. No one has mentioned the drought that forced the Anasazi to relocate from the region. I am pretty sure there was a 20 year drought about 3500 years ago. So, long term droughts are a not an uncommon occurrence.
 
History show these changes of warmer, wetter, colder, more ice, less ice , have been going on for longer than man has been burning fossil fuels.
There are many scientists that debate the cause and affect of CO2 to this day. Many scientist earlier in the last century predicted adverse cooling, they were wrong, I am sure they believed and had studies that supported these beliefs. I am not convinced the current crop predicting global warming ( now some evidence shows we (MAY be cooling) or now CLIMATE CHANGE will be any more correct … Only time will tell...………..... To say that science is not influenced by politics, look at how science and politics are playing out on our REAL current problem Corona virus...
 
i've never said that change doesn't happen or will not happen in the future, but for the life forms on this planet right now (including humans) it is the pace of change that is the issue. that is all i really have to say.

i am a scientist and will be support of those who actually do the work. my field is computer science. i was working on a master's degree but gave up on that. part of my studies were the history and philosophy of science so it's not like i'm not aware of how things work or don't work in sciences and how progress can happen or be thwarted. it's just that in the past 10,000 years there's nothing that compares in end results or i'd surely be doing that instead.

there are a lot of comments above that are plainly wrong, but i don't have the time to deal with all of them. it's just silly that a country that pours so many trillion dollars into public education ends up with so many ill informed citizens but i don't expect much different given recent events.

the current pandemic is another point in favor of science, plenty of people have been warning that our current system of travel and the risks of diseases being spread rapidly is not a great idea. here we have a prime example of a simple prediction made by observations, aka an actual scientific hypothesis and an experiment, now let's see how the results are analysed and if the world actually comes up with some more viable action plans for the future.

sorry, i'm short on time to pick each reply and respond.

the comment about the Anasazi and a dry period is covered in tree ring data going back a good number of years. how many years do you need a record to be around before you start considering it useful for prediction? 1000-2000yrs? longer? at this point having any record that is objective past 200yrs is well worth at least paying attention to for seeing what the modern trend is looking like in comparison. predictions are another story.

the bubbles in glaciers already give you about 800,000yrs of information last i looked, but i am not an expert in either gas bubbles or tree rings. yet i will listen to anyone who cares to talk about them and to show me the work they're doing because it is a physical representation of history, like geology, chemistry, physics... they're not just making up stuff because it feels good.
 
Global Cooling, come on follow the $$!

National Geographic November 1976 November 1976 had a 45-page feature article titled, “What’s Happening to Our Climate?” by assistant editor Samuel W. Matthews.

Time Jan. 31, 1977
Time 01311977.JPG

Samuel Mathews was also coincidentally a major stakeholder in the new Isotoner gloves craze and two of Time magazine's board directors were directly involved with the blow-in insulation industry and in-floor heating, both major advertisers through the early 80's!
 
Just going to put this up here for those who are not convinced mankind is destined to kill itself off. It's not a scientific study though. haha
Radiation put out from a 5G cellular tower

 
Climate has certainly changed radically in the past. The dinosaurs dealt with rapid climate change due to an asteroid impact. Early mammals took advantage of global warming due to methane hydrate outgassing. Early humans became so adaptable evolving in an ice age climate. That doesn't change the fact that today fossil fuel combustion is a dominant forcing agent in the climate system. It is not 'either/or' discussion - all of these are true.

The only hypothesis that explains the following concurrent trends of the 20th/21st centuries - global warming, ocean acidification, marked reduction of Arctic Ocean ice, rising sea level, increased global precipitation and increased regional precipitation variability - is the geologically instantaneous 40% increase of atmospheric CO2 over the interglacial background levels of the past million years, due to combustion of fossil fuel in the past 150 years. There is no credible scientific debate about that.

Seven billion of us are learning how to live in a world in which our activities alter the climate. There are challenges and opportunities in those changes. A longer growing season in Canada. A 20% loss of arable land due to salt water encroachment in the already poor country of Bangladesh. Less reliable water resources in the southwestern U.S. We can debate what, if anything, should be done to reduce CO2 levels in the atmosphere to pre-industrial levels, and if so, how to accomplish it. But that is a debate of energy policy, power structure, population dynamics, politics, and ethics. Let's not waste precious time debating what we already know.
 
Oregano...well said. I agree that the debate has (or at least should) move beyond the knowledge we have, and focus on what to do about it. What about the argument that "it's too late to decelerate the change through our actions, so why bother?" Or the argument "what's the big deal about whether sea level rises 4 inches or 2 feet in the next few decades?" Curious to hear your take on those...

In my work (environmental planning consultant), we approach those questions from the perspective of economic risk and how that affects quality of life. What people want more than anything else is predictability. Land developers and investors are no different. I work with those people all the time--if they know the rules, and can reasonably predict long-term results, they will build something. They don't really care what the rules are, they just want to know that they won't change much. In the context of climate change, people behave no differently. Since we know CO2 emissions have spiked through the roof through human actions of the last several decades, and we can see in the long-term record how global temperature tends to respond to CO2 increases from one thing or another, I'm inclined to believe the scientific consensus about what might happen, knowing there are multiple schools of thought on this (that's the nature of science). But the effects are unpredictable...or more accurately, outside the box of our past recent experience.

So as a planner, it would be nice to be able to predict whether a water supply will be reliable in 50 years. Or whether an oceanfront property will still be there in the long haul. These things affect property values, not to mention human health and safety. Yes, some people may benefit from climate change--as you say, longer growing seasons in high latitudes, or easier shipping lanes through the Arctic. So policy becomes a question of risk/reward, and there are many factors that go into formulating policies that respond to that, as you allude to...energy, water supply options, agricultural issues, ethics, safety, but to me the most important of all of these is population dynamics. Not just total population (which is the elephant in the room), but human displacement. Populations (from large ones like tribes, to small ones like families) have always moved in response to stress, and the unpredictable effects of climate change from unprecedented CO2 spikes would surely be one of them. And with displacement comes big costs, both social and economic... and that's the reason people should care about the issue...

In the Glen Canyon region, yes, the Anasazi were likely displaced from their fragile environment by a relatively short drought--it didn't take much in their case--just about 25 years in the late 13th century led to abandoning many of their sites...they were a fairly small population living on the edge to begin with...


...In our case, we're talking about 7.7 billion people and a more global set of changes...
 
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co·in·ci·dence

noun
  1. a remarkable concurrence of events or circumstances without apparent causal connection.


    so much easier now



 
i'm glad to see the graphs for the upper colorado snow pack this season are getting near the average line for this season. an inch of SWE or so to go and from what the forecast is saying perhaps we'll get there and past it even. *whew!* also glad to see Lake Mead within about 3ft of 1100ft elevation. i don't think anyone expected the level of Lake Mead to get back to 1100 feet ever again.

i've noticed the releases from the reservoirs are also starting to taper off or are being more offset by what is coming in. several feet above last season's graphs. all interesting news for Lake Powell water level IMO. :) keep it coming Mother Nature! let it snow, let it snow, let it snow... :)
 
There has been more ice and less ice in the past. As well as well as more co2 PPM in the atmosphere and more ice and less ice have not always equated to the C02 levels being high or low. Sea level has been higher and lower. Temperatures have been warmer and colder. There is a another hypothesis that says it may be the earths natural cycle. There is still a question as too what the earths optimum temperature is. To say there is only one Hypothesis is not accurate. It MAY be the best and most likely but there are many factors that determine Climate change on the earth, some man caused some not. There are credible scientists that feel it still deserves study. Yes there is a trend that co2 is rising, but the CO2 levels today are estimated to be what it was approx. 3 million years ago, man was not contributing to it then. I went lower and is now rising. By the way the US has been reducing emissions and pollution for over 50 years and have made significant strides. The rest of the world is a much bigger issue. Much of our improvement is from switching to Natural Gas from Coal, still a fossil fuel but much cleaner than coal. Natural Gas is Our #1 producer of electricity. Bottom line we should all work to keep our air, land and water as clean and healthy as possible.


Climate has certainly changed radically in the past. The dinosaurs dealt with rapid climate change due to an asteroid impact. Early mammals took advantage of global warming due to methane hydrate outgassing. Early humans became so adaptable evolving in an ice age climate. That doesn't change the fact that today fossil fuel combustion is a dominant forcing agent in the climate system. It is not 'either/or' discussion - all of these are true.

The only hypothesis that explains the following concurrent trends of the 20th/21st centuries - global warming, ocean acidification, marked reduction of Arctic Ocean ice, rising sea level, increased global precipitation and increased regional precipitation variability - is the geologically instantaneous 40% increase of atmospheric CO2 over the interglacial background levels of the past million years, due to combustion of fossil fuel in the past 150 years. There is no credible scientific debate about that.

Seven billion of us are learning how to live in a world in which our activities alter the climate. There are challenges and opportunities in those changes. A longer growing season in Canada. A 20% loss of arable land due to salt water encroachment in the already poor country of Bangladesh. Less reliable water resources in the southwestern U.S. We can debate what, if anything, should be done to reduce CO2 levels in the atmosphere to pre-industrial levels, and if so, how to accomplish it. But that is a debate of energy policy, power structure, population dynamics, politics, and ethics. Let's not waste precious time debating what we already know.
 
Getting tired of all this crap. Why can’t we leave these forums for Lake Powell, fishing, camping, and water sports. Not to mention fishing and the canyons. Huh!

fortunately or unfortunately the water level of Lake Powell is important to millions of people and many other creatures. this thread is talking about the changes observed and predicted for water levels. you can ignore it if you like.

personally i am interested in science and in this case the science of a very complicated system. we have, as of yet, not determined what the minimum size of a system could be that will adequately support life indefinitely. that, if you do not understand the implications yet, is significant and existential question that has to be determined.

at present we are the only planet we know of that supports life. in all that we can see and detect so far there have not been any others yet that give clear signs of life.

i really do not like the idea that all of our eggs are in one basket. we already have several examples of mass-extinction events in the past and i'm sure there might be more on the way (not only counting the one we're generating ourselves right now) and i think a nobel and useful task of all humans is to work together to get into space and to answer these sorts of questions and to spread life around the rest of the universe. we need to set aside nationalistic petty things and spending so much on military exploits and put those efforts into better things for everyone (medicine, basic science research, etc). hopefully we will treat this planet well enough it will be here and capable of supporting life until the sun goes out. i alas, will not be around to see what happens next. wish i could... it's all facinating.
 
fortunately or unfortunately the water level of Lake Powell is important to millions of people and many other creatures. this thread is talking about the changes observed and predicted for water levels. you can ignore it if you like.

personally i am interested in science and in this case the science of a very complicated system. we have, as of yet, not determined what the minimum size of a system could be that will adequately support life indefinitely. that, if you do not understand the implications yet, is significant and existential question that has to be determined.

at present we are the only planet we know of that supports life. in all that we can see and detect so far there have not been any others yet that give clear signs of life.

i really do not like the idea that all of our eggs are in one basket. we already have several examples of mass-extinction events in the past and i'm sure there might be more on the way (not only counting the one we're generating ourselves right now) and i think a nobel and useful task of all humans is to work together to get into space and to answer these sorts of questions and to spread life around the rest of the universe. we need to set aside nationalistic petty things and spending so much on military exploits and put those efforts into better things for everyone (medicine, basic science research, etc). hopefully we will treat this planet well enough it will be here and capable of supporting life until the sun goes out. i alas, will not be around to see what happens next. wish i could... it's all facinating.
An easier way to say this.....It has to be a global effort. I think I've read that somewhere else before. :P
 
Actually, as others have pointed out, this thread is probably one of the most civil and measured discussions on the topic I’ve seen anywhere online. Divergent views presented honestly and plenty here to provoke thought without anger. Refreshing and immensely helpful. And to think you have to look to a forum mostly devoted to fishing to find it!

That’s what happens when you put passionate but practical people in the same room.

Those who don’t like the topic can simply ignore... but the benefits of a wider perspective always outweigh the downsides...
 
Yes it is nice that we can be civil but that doesn't mean I can take much more. I don't like it when I feel like I am being talked down to. Just say it.... no one knows what tomorrow brings. There are too many splits in the road. We all need to do our best with the things we can do on a personal level but to short ourselves by being blinded by the agendas of those making money in the name of greening the planet at the expense of a robust varied energy supply is shortsighted and dangerous. We don't want to be in the same situation we are in now with this virus and not enough tools at our disposal to deal with it. Our energy supplies are right up there with medical supplies as far as our need for them. Moving to outer space is not the answer right now. Being prepared for an energy shortfall will be much more relevent. I don't want to start blocking people but this thread will do it. And I'm sure others won't like my comments either so this is the last you will hear from me on this topic.
 
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For those getting tired of this thread or can't take it. Why are you reading it? If you don't like this thread just don't follow it. Its that simple there are many great other threads on this site to read and follow. This one has been civil and interesting to me. Varied and different viewpoints have been expressed. It is interesting to ME to see read and hear what others are thinking. No one is forcing anyone to view this. For me its something to take ones mind off the current situation and to see what others think. Lets all stay safe and do our part to keep our planet clean and thriving.
 
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