Recent Rains

@Colorado Expat I understand what you are saying but what I am looking at now is the past several days of increased river flows and thus inflows to Lake Powell.


Precipitation is above average and now the flows have also finally gotten back towards that.

If the ground moisture levels were as bad as what you seem to indicate then these recent rains would not have been very productive but they seem to be. So a bit of a mystery there...? It also looks like today is giving even more rain.
 
flowerbug said:
@Colorado Expat I understand what you are saying but what I am looking at now is the past several days of increased river flows and thus inflows to Lake Powell.


Precipitation is above average and now the flows have also finally gotten back towards that.

If the ground moisture levels were as bad as what you seem to indicate then these recent rains would not have been very productive but they seem to be. So a bit of a mystery there...? It also looks like today is giving even more rain.
Click to expand...
At this time of year, river discharge rates are low, so it does not take much of a precipitation input to bump things up by a few percentage points. So look at the volume of flow, not the percentage of normal. For instance, the San Juan system is running at just 1200 cfs (80 percent of normal discharge), thus reflective of the dry conditions prevailing in southwest Colorado. The main stem Colorado north of the Eagle River basin has seen an improved precipitation and soil moisture situation since July, and that likely accounts for the slight increase in gauged discharge at Cisco over the past week or so, putting us at just about long-term mean for this time of year.

But this will not last. Looking forward, the general trend is dry for the rest of September. As per the Grand Junction NWS forecast office: "The closed low ejects eastward through Wyoming and into the northern Plains late Friday night into Saturday which will drag a cold front through the forecast area. Aside from the far northern tier of northeast Utah and northwest Colorado, this cold front will push through with hardly any precipitation...By Sunday, ridging starts to build into the Rockies from the west which is progged to last through the end of the long term period and likely beyond. Dry weather is in store during this time with a gradual trend back to near and above normal temperatures."

A few hit and run systems notwithstanding, summer warmth is lingering into fall, and winter is not yet on our doorstep, at least not in western Colorado.
 
Colorado Expat said:
At this time of year, river discharge rates are low, so it does not take much of a precipitation input to bump things up by a few percentage points. So look at the volume of flow, not the percentage of normal. For instance, the San Juan system is running at just 1200 cfs (80 percent of normal discharge), thus reflective of the dry conditions prevailing in southwest Colorado. The main stem Colorado north of the Eagle River basin has seen an improved precipitation and soil moisture situation since July, and that likely accounts for the slight increase in gauged discharge at Cisco over the past week or so, putting us at just about long-term mean for this time of year.

But this will not last. Looking forward, the general trend is dry for the rest of September.
Click to expand...

Oh boogers! It dropped fast. I'm wondering if this is a temporary issue with the gauge because it looked wet yesterday so I'd expected it to remain about the same at least for a day or two as the new moisture percolates through.

Certainly not happy to hear about it drying out again for a month. :( A few good storms or even once a week would keep things moist until the fall and winter can come around.
 
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