Possible Utah shut down?

JFRCalifornia

Well-Known Member
Dorado, I truly don't understand your testing scenario. It seems to me that until we have a stable baseline, i.e., every single person tested we can't have accurate information to determine a decline or increase in covid numbers. What am I missing? I am sincere and assure you there is no snarky underlying pretense. I really am trying to figure this out, but must add that I am very suspicious of the politics and greed angle.
Let’s say we do 100 tests and 3 come up positive. That’s a 3% positive rate. Then let’s say we ramp up the testing, do 1,000 tests, and 50 come up positive. Yes, more tests, more positives. But in this case, you’ve now got a 5% positive rate, which is worse than what we had before. And that’s what’s happening.

Now, if instead we had tested 1,000 people and only 20 came up positive, that’s only 2%, and I’d agree that would be an improvement. But that’s not what’s happening.
 

F/W Fishwhistle

Active Member
And... one can assume that because tests were extremely limited for the first months this all happened, only people with a high likelihood of having Covid received the tests. This means that at the start the percentage of positives should be higher than now as now there is more testing available and people without symptoms can now be tested as well. So, if the percentage of Covid positive tests are higher now than it was for the first month or two... well, we’re in for a tough run.
 

Ringer

Well-Known Member
The majority of positives are now younger people who get through this like the flu. Not a high danger of death for them. More tests will obviously yield more positives as the virus spreads. It will spread until they have a vaccine and until then it is just what it is. The rate of infection will increase until we have all been exposed.
 

Boudreaux

Well-Known Member
I'm starting to get it through my thick skull.. Then it would ba a matter of a equal representation of the tested for accurate comparisons.
A good point. The early testing was not randomized, due to scarcity of tests, by far only Covid symptomatic people were tested, then “likely exposure” people (with doctors orders for the test) were included, now apparently anyone can get tested (if subsidized free testing is available or if your insurance pays or if you private pay up to a couple hundred bucks). Still not random. Does that mean all the numbers are BS? It definitely means you should be an informed consumer of information and question the quality of data. However, I’m pretty sure statisticians and epidemiologists are happy as heck to shine in this moment, and are looking at all this. They are all about quality of data. There is good data to compare coming from European countries with universal healthcare which eliminates some of our barriers to getting tested, for example.
 

Cliff

Well-Known Member
A question I have is - What's the end game here?

Are we trying to slow (and should we?) the spread OR are we proselytizing trying to end the disease?

We started the "stay at home" to avoid overwhelming the hospitals and not trying to stop the disease, but now it seems all eyes are focused on stopping the spread of the disease no matter how small the infected group might be.

The fact remains that it will NEVER go away. We will never get rid of it completely. Some people will always be infected just like the normal flu.

Some people will always die from it just like the normal flu. It can't be avoided unless EVERYONE is locked up. And now they are talking about contact tracing AND daily monitors to make sure the infected are in fact staying at home (in jail) and if not reporting them to the authorities. That is from today's meeting in Washington! This is a far cry from the original concept of "stay at home"

A significant portion of the population has said they would not take the vaccine. Where does that leave the "model".

I go back to my very early question of-

At what point do we accept the fact that some people will always get sick and die of this disease and what number of deaths will we be willing to accept as "NORMAL' risk and all go back to normal living? Just like the normal flu or any other disease.

This question will have to be answered at sometime by someone.

Remember, the large majority show no symptoms or have very little symptoms. You never see those numbers by the epidemiologists or the news reporting. The actual numbers of those REALLY sick and dying are very low.

Just reporting those testing positive isn't the entire story
 

NallAlex

Member
As of yesterday the country "US" has a .75% infection rate yes .75 --less than 1%. And with a 98% recovery rate so far, means there are about 36,000 people nationwide "currently" infected. 2.5 million positives since Feb 1st,

Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
scroll down and see some actual #'s of deaths by week since Feb 1st. This is about 10 clicks deep in the CDC site hard to find but there is alot of info on that site if you want to hunt for it.
 
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thekid26

Active Member
Some numbers to think about
Total Utah population 3.2 million Total deaths so far 165 (as of 6/20) Chance of dying from COVID in Utah by population?
----------0.00005
ICU beds available 171 ICU beds needed (today) 37
Hospital beds available 2771 Beds used 140
Beds needed has remained steady at @ 140 since the 12th ICU beds needed has remained steady since at @ 35 since the 12th

Arizona Population 7.3 million Total deaths (6/24) 1454 Chance of dying by population 0.0002
Beds available 6018 beds needed today 1359 ICU available 508 needed 391

The upswing started about 2 weeks ago in AZ BUT the majority seems to be in the border counties and the Navajo Nation. Its not homogeneous across the state NOR is it in Utah. Obviously it seems somewhat a worse scenario in AZ as opposed to UT.

Considering the total population in each state the risk (IMO) is quite low to both contracting it and dying from it.
Reports state that roughly 75% to 80% of those contracting it has NO or LITTLE symptoms.
Testing in AZ is about 9,000/day going up @ 1,000/day each day.
Testing in Utah is @ 4500/day going up @ 50-100/day Not near the increase as in AZ
Testing only shows who has it not how sick they are. Many show no symptoms.
Obviously the more you test the more you find so the numbers go up likewise.
No one talks about how many show no symptoms- THE VAST MAJORITY
The majority that do succumb to the virus have underlying conditions, many if not most have multiple underlying conditions and may/would have passed anyway in a short time.

Also I've only seen 1 report on a parallel study comparing the reported FLU A&B from 2019 vs 2020, week by week from October thru May. It seems all the regular FLU A&B seemed to just go away as no one had FLU A&B in 2020 after COVID came into view.
Are we to believe that FLU A&B just miraculously disappeared from the face of the earth this year?
Does this mean that we don't need "FLU" shots anymore?
Call me a skeptic on the numbers bantied about in the news

Just trying to pass along the numbers I see on the Hopkins COVID website that no one interpolates other than the headlines. JMO and I'm in the "risk" arena due to age.
Cliff for President, or something, great factual post. Need more of this type of real information. My kid went to ER the other day out here in Ca and there wasn't anyone in line or in the hospital waiting room. As a matter of fact the lights in some parts were turned off to save energy because there were no patients in those wings. The nurses were afraid they are going to be laid off. I wonder how many people are not going to the ER with stroke or heart attack signs because they are afraid that the hospitals and urgent care facilities are full of Covid patients. Just not the case out here, crazy, cooler heads need to prevail.
 

Cliff

Well-Known Member
I also predict that on Nov 4th COVID will miraculously disappear from the airwaves in the USA. No matter who gets elected! I'll bet $20
 

Mudsnowh2o

New Member
A question I have is - What's the end game here?

Are we trying to slow (and should we?) the spread OR are we proselytizing trying to end the disease?

We started the "stay at home" to avoid overwhelming the hospitals and not trying to stop the disease, but now it seems all eyes are focused on stopping the spread of the disease no matter how small the infected group might be.

The fact remains that it will NEVER go away. We will never get rid of it completely. Some people will always be infected just like the normal flu.

Some people will always die from it just like the normal flu. It can't be avoided unless EVERYONE is locked up. And now they are talking about contact tracing AND daily monitors to make sure the infected are in fact staying at home (in jail) and if not reporting them to the authorities. That is from today's meeting in Washington! This is a far cry from the original concept of "stay at home"

A significant portion of the population has said they would not take the vaccine. Where does that leave the "model".

I go back to my very early question of-

At what point do we accept the fact that some people will always get sick and die of this disease and what number of deaths will we be willing to accept as "NORMAL' risk and all go back to normal living? Just like the normal flu or any other disease.

This question will have to be answered at sometime by someone.

Remember, the large majority show no symptoms or have very little symptoms. You never see those numbers by the epidemiologists or the news reporting. The actual numbers of those REALLY sick and dying are very low.

Just reporting those testing positive isn't the entire story
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaamen! Wait can I say aMEN? Probably not.
 

David A Dexter

Active Member
I'll take your $20 bet, Cliff, but that wouldn't be fair since SQL is at the epicenter of the COVID crisis. SQL has performed more than 10000 COVID PCR tests per day for months but, since Memorial Day, when I was at Lake Powell and frankly shocked at the lack of physical distancing, our PCR positive rate has increased from 4.5% to 14% to 18% to 22% to 25%. The state has requested that SQL increase COVID PCR capacity to 50k tests/day. I was part of a meeting today with the Governor and Dr. Birx from the White House task force. Dr Birx noted that Arizona needs 100k PCR tests/day. I'm pleased to share that SQL will successfully increase PCR testing capacity to 35k tests/day by the end of July, reducing TAT to 24 hours. By the end of August, we will be at 60k PCR tests/day....testing access and TAT will no longer be a problem in Arizona. SQL will be performing more than 18% of the national capacity. I see that Birdsnest, whom I met back in May, thinks that remote Utah will not be a problem. I would have readily agreed with that back in May, but no more. This virus is not going away anytime soon; we're all going to be exposed. Physical distancing and masks when distancing is not possible, washing your hands frequently offer the best protection. Contact tracing is very important but not possible without 24 hour TAT, but we'll get there. I saw where someone noted that hospitals are benefiting from the COVID crisis; quite the opposite. Hospitals are paid on a fixed rate DRG, regardless of length of stay, and COVID patients stay in the hospital a lot longer. Plus, the loss of elective surgeries was devastating financially to all hospitals. If we keep seeing an increased rate of virus prevalence the elective surgeries will be shut down again, which we can't afford to have happen. I look forward to fishing at Lake Powell and some degree of normalcy, but right now, we have an ethical and moral responsibility to meet the testing needs of Arizona citizens though this crisis, and we will. Tight lines everyone.
 

Cliff

Well-Known Member
David- Thank you again for your exquisite response here. As always your input is a breath of fresh air to the typical reports put out by ALL media.
I must admit I am skeptical of some things.
My comment about it going away in Nov was not that the disease will go away but the news cycle will drop it for other things
I still have several unanswered questions that bug me-
As you and I conversed weeks ago this virus is never going away, I think we agree on that
Now to just how bad is it in reality? Everyone talks about the high positive numbers but no one relates that to what percentage of that figure actually get real sick.
Does anyone have those figures? Wouldn't that put a different face on the threat for the public?

Beyond that the actual death numbers are actually quite low compared to the population of the state as a percentage.
Unless I'm missing something the best numbers I have found say 70 to 80% show little or no symptoms when contracting the virus.

Now your new numbers indicate that a much larger percentage of the tested group shows the virus but, can we extrapolate that straight line to the entire population as a whole? Or is the number skewed because those testing fell sick and want the test?
Are we to believe that 25% of the US population (330 million) is positive for the virus (82 million) right now?

Following on- In the beginning (no pun intended) we were worried about overcapacity in the hospitals. Not trying to defeat the virus over all. It seems now were are focusing on defeating the virus with the way the CDC (etc) seems to be moving. As I mentioned in one of our exchanges weeks ago- this virus ain't going away. AT some point we are going to have to accept some number of annual deaths from this virus as "normal" and just go back to living as we do with other diseases
We're all going to get it. Its just a matter of when- soon or later. How much do we want to do to slow the inevitable outcome?
At what cost?

It looks to me like we have better therapeutics now to treat the virus so deaths and ICU use has stabilized for now. But the inevitable end point will still always be out there. Most of us will contract it at some point. It won't be stopped.

With the higher positive percentages being picked up recently are the percentages of dying from the virus increasing or staying the same? How about the actual number of deaths? Are the actual numbers staying steady (an indication of better treatment outcomes)? If the numbers are steady and with the higher percentage of positives being caught that would indicate that the virus was even less lethal than has been talked about. But NO ONE even talks about these numbers and figures. They only talk about the climbing numbers of positive cases found- not how many are actually really sick of that number.

I want to know how many of the tested positive cases are actually really sick! What percentage of the tested positive actually have to be put in the hospital! There's a big disparity in the numbers being tested positive and the numbers in hospitals right now. Why does no one speak of this?

Another issue is what does the testing actually accomplish but tell us how many are getting the virus. Sure predictions can be made as to how many hospital beds we need with the numbers but without massive tracing and quarantine the number will not stop and the virus will not go away. Are we ready as a country to put that much effort into this considering
that we are making strides in treatment now.

What;s the bottom line- people are scared of dying form the virus Granted, but how high is the real possibility for the population as a whole. What if people knew there was a treatment for it ? That it is not a death sentence just to contract it for the vast majority of the population. They don't know that now because its not being reported by the news or the CDC either.
 
Can we please talk about the important things like how to have a good time at Powell. I am tired of life revolving around a virus that is going to be with us whether we mask or not, whether we social distance or not. If you feel like it is necessary then do it but don't judge the rest of us for having differing opinions. The most important thing is to enjoy Powell, forget the rest of the world while you are there and catch lots of stripers!!
 

birdsnest

Well-Known Member
These discussions are important to me because I get perspectives from this group that are often absent from the day to day news about this subject. Covid is affecting Powell and the striper fishing. I don't see anyone judging, in fact it seems pretty darn civil. These guys help me understand things I didn't grasp and I am appreciative. These discussions are like a tv, If you don't like whats on, change the channel. There are some discussions that don't interest me so I don't follow them. Easy.
 

Murph McBride

Well-Known Member
I too am enjoying this thread. Trying to learn some facts that you just can’t get thru other means. The money trails do concern me a tad, one says there’s money to be made by hospital visits and another says “not so”. Hopefully this whole pandemic thing isn’t being drug out due to Greed.
 

John P Funk

Well-Known Member
the percent of positive cases would be DECLINING
Positivity rate is calculated by dividing the number of positive tests by the number of tests given. Positivity rate is remaining relatively constant(there are some hot spots, but they are localized), and not increasing dramatically(which would indicate a widespread second wave). When we see the positivity rate decline significantly, we will be approaching "herd immunity", but right now it seems that we've reached a plateau in positivity. The increase in the number of cases is solely due to the increased number of tests being performed daily.

PS
I hadn't looked at national positivity data for a while and I'll have to retract my previous statement. Nationally the positivity rate in mid-june was 4.4%(it's lowest point since the beginning of the pandemic). Since then we have seen a climb to 7%, primarily due to the opening of the economy/riots/protests/sick of staying in/etc. We should not be surprised by an increase in positivity as we move forward. The vast majority of us will get the illness and the vast majority of those who do will survive.
 
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