Possible Utah shut down?

Randy Helzer

Well-Known Member
I just read a news story that stated that unless Utah’s 7 day average of new Covid cases drops to 200 or less By July 1st they may “shut down” the state. Does anyone have any more information on this?
 

Randy Helzer

Well-Known Member

bdn

Active Member
Gov. Herbert responds to Dr. Dunn memo on possible shutdown risk

Gov. Gary Herbert released a statement on Twitter on Monday night responding to the contents of a memo where state epidemiologist Dr. Angela Dunn warnedanother shutdown might be necessary to control the outbreak in Utah.

"Dr. Dunn’s internal memo raises alarm about the increasing COVID-19 cases in Utah. I appreciate her analysis and share many of her concerns. We will work to stem this tide, but I have no plans to shut down Utah’s economy," Herbert's tweet stated. "I urge Utahns to protect themselves and their loved ones from the spread of the virus by following our common sense guidelines for social distancing, good hand hygiene and especially the use of face coverings."

Hope sanity reigns.
 

Cheryl

New Member
The numbers are off the charts, it really sucks - I feel like a total shutdown is neccesary in order to help this settle down, But Herbert doesn't seem to feel that way ??? Either way its crappy. If I lived in Page I would not want a bunch of strangers bringing in germs, I know the Indian nation is really hit hard.
 

jimmybame

Well-Known Member
The numbers are off the charts, it really sucks - I feel like a total shutdown is neccesary in order to help this settle down, But Herbert doesn't seem to feel that way ??? Either way its crappy. If I lived in Page I would not want a bunch of strangers bringing in germs, I know the Indian nation is really hit hard.
Indian nation wow🤷‍♂️It is Native Americans and it is the Navajo Nation that is having a hard time and they have been shut down. I hope people going to the lake are being respectful to the locals and try to bring as many supplies from there home towns👍
 

Dworwood

Well-Known Member
The numbers are off the charts, it really sucks - I feel like a total shutdown is neccesary in order to help this settle down, But Herbert doesn't seem to feel that way ??? Either way its crappy. If I lived in Page I would not want a bunch of strangers bringing in germs, I know the Indian nation is really hit hard.
I may get booed for this but why shut down the whole state when it is two counties? Small towns got ravished by people coming from larger cities to shop because they didn’t feel safe in the big City stores and that made us nervous. Why not stop travel from those counties and let the rest of the state go on with life? Why shut down Powell and rural Utah when they are not the hot spots? If they become hot or high numbers are infected then shut those spots down. A total shut down seems ridiculous to many of us. Our hospital was empty for weeks because no one wanted to go there even if they should have.
Businesses are starting to see the effects of the previous shut down. People have been out of work and do not have money for repairs and unexpected expenses, the results are just now starting to show. This could get really bad for many of us and it is just starting! I am in the high risk category and no asked my opinion. I would rather take my chances than see my grandkids suffer for what could be years of economic hardship over these shut downs. We can not get a beef killed and cut for months because the shops that custom cut are backlogged and it is only going to get worse. They may be in the corral but that Meat is not going in the freezer for a long time. When the shelves are empty in the stores then you will see the results of the shut down. I don’t believe most people even have a clue what could be coming if we shut down again.
Sorry for the rant, just my two cents worth.
 

Cliff

Well-Known Member
Some numbers to think about
Total Utah population 3.2 million Total deaths so far 165 (as of 6/20) Chance of dying from COVID in Utah by population?
----------0.00005
ICU beds available 171 ICU beds needed (today) 37
Hospital beds available 2771 Beds used 140
Beds needed has remained steady at @ 140 since the 12th ICU beds needed has remained steady since at @ 35 since the 12th

Arizona Population 7.3 million Total deaths (6/24) 1454 Chance of dying by population 0.0002
Beds available 6018 beds needed today 1359 ICU available 508 needed 391

The upswing started about 2 weeks ago in AZ BUT the majority seems to be in the border counties and the Navajo Nation. Its not homogeneous across the state NOR is it in Utah. Obviously it seems somewhat a worse scenario in AZ as opposed to UT.

Considering the total population in each state the risk (IMO) is quite low to both contracting it and dying from it.
Reports state that roughly 75% to 80% of those contracting it has NO or LITTLE symptoms.
Testing in AZ is about 9,000/day going up @ 1,000/day each day.
Testing in Utah is @ 4500/day going up @ 50-100/day Not near the increase as in AZ
Testing only shows who has it not how sick they are. Many show no symptoms.
Obviously the more you test the more you find so the numbers go up likewise.
No one talks about how many show no symptoms- THE VAST MAJORITY
The majority that do succumb to the virus have underlying conditions, many if not most have multiple underlying conditions and may/would have passed anyway in a short time.

Also I've only seen 1 report on a parallel study comparing the reported FLU A&B from 2019 vs 2020, week by week from October thru May. It seems all the regular FLU A&B seemed to just go away as no one had FLU A&B in 2020 after COVID came into view.
Are we to believe that FLU A&B just miraculously disappeared from the face of the earth this year?
Does this mean that we don't need "FLU" shots anymore?
Call me a skeptic on the numbers bantied about in the news

Just trying to pass along the numbers I see on the Hopkins COVID website that no one interpolates other than the headlines. JMO and I'm in the "risk" arena due to age.
 
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birdsnest

Well-Known Member
I live in one of the'hard hit" counties of Utah, Bunch of bull. More testing, more cases. Or probably presumably covid for more fed. money. Don't forget that if you are congested...at all, go to your doctor so he or she can say you have covid so the hospital can recieve another 30K and they can administer drugs that the feds reimburse for stupid amounts. This is an opportunity for hospitals. Don't buy into this deception. Is there covid, yes. Is it being used for illicit gain,yes. Protect you elderly loved ones if they want to be protected and move on.
 

birdsnest

Well-Known Member
The numbers are off the charts, it really sucks - I feel like a total shutdown is neccesary in order to help this settle down, But Herbert doesn't seem to feel that way ??? Either way its crappy. If I lived in Page I would not want a bunch of strangers bringing in germs, I know the Indian nation is really hit hard.
If you lived in Page, you would love a bunch of strangers, germs and all. Page lives and dies on tourist dollars. Especially now that NGS is shut down. And if you lived in Page you would be watching out for the "Indians" because I can guarantee they would be watching out for you.
 
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Boudreaux

Well-Known Member
Also I've only seen 1 report on a parallel study comparing the reported FLU A&B from 2019 vs 2020, week by week from October thru May. It seems all the regular FLU A&B seemed to just go away as no one had FLU A&B in 2020 after COVID came into view.
Are we to believe that FLU A&B just miraculously disappeared from the face of the earth this year?
Does this mean that we don't need "FLU" shots anymore?
I don’t disagree that the risk to an individual of dying from Covid 19 is low, but just to be clear, influenza and Covid 19 numbers have been logged separately. I couldn’t find the Johns Hopkins source you noted, but here is a graph of influenza cases in 2020 (similar ones are easily found). It follows fairly closely with the typical peak in February or March.
It does drop off more precipitously, but consider that people tended to stay home from medical facilities (40% decrease in ER census in Western Colorado in March/April) and that quarantining, increased hand washing and masks decrease flu transmission as well. Influenza testing continued as Covid 19 emerged, in fact, ER staff locally had been testing symptomatic folks for influenza first to rule that in or out, due to shortage of Covid tests early on.
 

Dorado

Well-Known Member
I live in one of the'hard hit" counties of Utah, Bunch of bull. More testing, more cases. Or probably presumably covid for more fed. money. Don't forget that if you are congested...at all, go to your doctor so he or she can say you have covid so the hospital can recieve another 30K and they can administer drugs that the feds reimburse for stupid amounts. This is an opportunity for hospitals. Don't buy into this deception. Is there covid, yes. Is it being used for illicit gain,yes. Protect you elderly loved ones if they want to be protected and move on.
Don't get me wrong, I don't think another stay at home order is needed or would work. Gatherings in confined spaces without masks is driving the spread, stop this behavior and the spread will slow. Don't close outdoor activities that have very little risk of spreading COVID.

But please stop repeating the "more testing more cases" BS. Yes, more testing is occurring, but if the number of cases showing up was only driven by more testing, the percent of positive cases would be DECLINING, not increasing. The percentage of COVID positive samples keeps going up, despite more people being tested, which can only happen when the prevalence of the virus in the population increases.
 

Ringer

Well-Known Member
My employee's sister works at a hospital here in Phoenix. She said it was empty a month ago and is now full with Covid patients. Weird thing is she said most of them don't need hospitalization at all. Said it is $30 grand per patient so they send them to the hospital.
 

birdsnest

Well-Known Member
My employee's sister works at a hospital here in Phoenix. She said it was empty a month ago and is now full with Covid patients. Weird thing is she said most of them don't need hospitalization at all. Said it is $30 grand per patient so they send them to the hospital.
This is how New York has handled it from the beginning, especially the public acceptance hospitals that were on the edge finanacially. Many non-covid cases have been infected and died from being ventilated. Many non covid cases have died from being ventilated. You cannot make a stand against the Feds for not having ventilators and then not use them when they become available. I wouldn't want to be sent to Elmhurst Hospital in NY. If you want see something interesting, look up Erin Marie Olszewski. Conspiracy crap? I don't think so.
 

birdsnest

Well-Known Member
Don't get me wrong, I don't think another stay at home order is needed or would work. Gatherings in confined spaces without masks is driving the spread, stop this behavior and the spread will slow. Don't close outdoor activities that have very little risk of spreading COVID.

But please stop repeating the "more testing more cases" BS. Yes, more testing is occurring, but if the number of cases showing up was only driven by more testing, the percent of positive cases would be DECLINING, not increasing. The percentage of COVID positive samples keeps going up, despite more people being tested, which can only happen when the prevalence of the virus in the population increases.
Dorado, I truly don't understand your testing scenario. It seems to me that until we have a stable baseline, i.e., every single person tested we can't have accurate information to determine a decline or increase in covid numbers. What am I missing? I am sincere and assure you there is no snarky underlying pretense. I really am trying to figure this out, but must add that I am very suspicious of the politics and greed angle.
 
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