Juicy June?

Rainbowbridge

Escalante-Class Member
love your handle: 'Fickle River'......hehehe..........touched a funny bone

I may use your term as a 'woke' defense: Fickle, per Webster: 'given to erratic changeableness' hehehe.....'Hey, I'm just Fickle!!'

and thanks for the graphs.....when I look at the LPDB snowpack graphs, and it shows 90% today.....I'm reminded how fickle Mother Nature can indeed be.....from our view.....but we keep doin' the raindance, tho....

;)
 

Trix

Escalante-Class Member
I haven't seen those NOAA graphs, I'll rummage around to find them.
AccuWeather has chances of AZ precept next week well above Weather Channel. Hope for early monsoon to extinguish fire danger.
Flaming Gorge watershed getting wet!😀
 

Dougie

Well-Known Member
I agree this is unusual, but let’s be realistic: Above normal in mid-June for most of this area could be .10 of an inch, with slightly more at high elevations, all of which which barely wets the ground. This is statistically the driest time of the year. It’s not monsoon time yet. We will take anything we can get, but this is not a forecast for busting the drought.
 

Liftedtacoma4x

Active Member
Here’s the latest Euro weeklies for the South West and the Rockies
 

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Dougie

Well-Known Member
From Tucson NOAA office discussion this morning.

Late next week, the high pressure strengthens and moves into the
central plains, while a deep/anomalous upper low moves down the
Cali coast. This puts the Desert SW in a deep and moist flow
regime, essentially opening the Gulf of Mexico faucet. While it
is still a week out, this has been consistent and something that
bears watching. This would put Arizona in a very active pattern
for mid June.
 

Dougie

Well-Known Member
From Phoenix weather office confirming Tucson opinion while using a bit more jargon, but you get the point.

By Friday, ensembles favor a very amplified H5
height pattern developing, with a deep West Coast trough
juxtaposed with a pronounced Central CONUS ridge which could set
the region up with a path for deep southerly subtropical moisture
advection and disturbance tracks. Both EPS and NAEFS support
unseasonably high moisture content (PWAT and IVT) by Saturday. All
four global ensemble clusters also support rainfall across AZ,
much in line with the areas highlighted in the CPC 6-10 day
outlook, and several EPS and GEFS members still support beneficial
rain (QPF>0.25") in the Phoenix area. It is still early in the
forecast cycle for this period and specifics can and will change
regarding the nature of this event, but confidence is at least
growing day-by-day for a potential wet and cool period. NBM PoPs
are currently around 20-30% in AZ, which is decent this far out.
 

Greg Archer 71

Active Member
From Tucson NOAA office discussion this morning.

Late next week, the high pressure strengthens and moves into the
central plains, while a deep/anomalous upper low moves down the
Cali coast. This puts the Desert SW in a deep and moist flow
regime, essentially opening the Gulf of Mexico faucet. While it
is still a week out, this has been consistent and something that
bears watching. This would put Arizona in a very active pattern
for mid June.
Looks promising. I'll stop watering my lawn.
 

sphoppie

Active Member
I mean it rained a tad I guess but I wouldn’t say monsoon sales don’t has begun. We saw clouds but not a drop fell for us in NW Tucson. 😢
Sonoita has had a few days of rain and NE Tucson got rain Saturday night.Storm clouds have been present daily to the south and thunder heads are more present. Rain is in the forecast for the Tucson metro for Friday, Saturday and Sunday. NW Tucson seems to be the red headed step child for monsoons lol.
 

Liftedtacoma4x

Active Member
Heavy rain across portions of the Southwest, Fri-Sun, Jun 17-Jun 19

Further west, flow on the backside of an
upper-level ridge over the Great Plains will bring unseasonably high moisture northward into the Southwest and Four Corners region. Instances of heavy rain associated with this early appearance of
Monsoon conditions are possible Friday (June 17th) through Sunday (June 19th), and potentially extending into Monday.
F8017EA1-8DC1-461A-8190-93C528E81D28.jpeg
 
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