I like JFR's framework for renegotiation. I'm wondering if the 1922 Compact has an expiration date, or if it is open-ended.
I have a couple of counterpoints to JFR...
The installed generating capacity at Glen Canyon Dam is 1,320 MW, but actual generation is much lower, due to lower water levels and flows. Just pulling up the numbers from the BoR, they were generating in the 6,365 MWH per day range in mid-November, or 265 MW. By contrast, the Navajo Generating Plant near Page had a nameplate capacity of 2,250 MW, and the Intermountain Power Plant (thermal plant near Delta UT) has a nameplate capacity of 1,900 MW. The U.S. installed 5.7 gigawatts (GWdc) of solar PV capacity in Q2 2021. I don't see as big of a hit to the southwestern power grid if the Glen Canyon generating capacity goes away. In a different world (like with an equalizing reservoir below Lake Powell) Glen Canyon could have been used for peaking power, but we as a society decided not to, so as to help the ecosystem in the Grand Canyon.
Utah is not a real heavy user of Colorado basin water. One diversion with potential to divert a lot of water from the basin involves tunneling from the Flaming Gorge area, and then sending the water along the south slope of the Uinta Mountains and through/under the Wasatch Range to the Wasatch Front. If the users had to pay the capitol cost of that project the water would be too expensive to use.
The Wasatch Front water consumption (residential) is excessive, but could be cut by a very large fraction (80%) if we chose to stop residential irrigation. There would still be plenty of water available for culinary / flushing uses.
So I don't see Utah as being in a world of hurt even with only one third of their 1922 Compact water share.
Glen Canyon Dam has been described as the "cash register" for the Colorado River Storage Project (or whatever you want to call the whole system of reservoirs, dams, canals, and so forth). They sold electricity at market rates, well above the cost of generation (unknown if they included the amortized capitol cost of building the dam and generating station), and then used those funds to pay for the water delivery projects. What would the Southwest look like if they had sold the power at cost, and charged the water users the full cost of delivery for BoR water projects? I imagine that there would be a lot less desert farming, and perhaps a lot less population in the Southwest. On the other hand, there might be more industry heavily dependent on cheap power such as aluminum production. Food prices would most likely be higher, and less fresh food would be available in the Southwest.
I have a couple of counterpoints to JFR...
The installed generating capacity at Glen Canyon Dam is 1,320 MW, but actual generation is much lower, due to lower water levels and flows. Just pulling up the numbers from the BoR, they were generating in the 6,365 MWH per day range in mid-November, or 265 MW. By contrast, the Navajo Generating Plant near Page had a nameplate capacity of 2,250 MW, and the Intermountain Power Plant (thermal plant near Delta UT) has a nameplate capacity of 1,900 MW. The U.S. installed 5.7 gigawatts (GWdc) of solar PV capacity in Q2 2021. I don't see as big of a hit to the southwestern power grid if the Glen Canyon generating capacity goes away. In a different world (like with an equalizing reservoir below Lake Powell) Glen Canyon could have been used for peaking power, but we as a society decided not to, so as to help the ecosystem in the Grand Canyon.
Utah is not a real heavy user of Colorado basin water. One diversion with potential to divert a lot of water from the basin involves tunneling from the Flaming Gorge area, and then sending the water along the south slope of the Uinta Mountains and through/under the Wasatch Range to the Wasatch Front. If the users had to pay the capitol cost of that project the water would be too expensive to use.
The Wasatch Front water consumption (residential) is excessive, but could be cut by a very large fraction (80%) if we chose to stop residential irrigation. There would still be plenty of water available for culinary / flushing uses.
So I don't see Utah as being in a world of hurt even with only one third of their 1922 Compact water share.
Glen Canyon Dam has been described as the "cash register" for the Colorado River Storage Project (or whatever you want to call the whole system of reservoirs, dams, canals, and so forth). They sold electricity at market rates, well above the cost of generation (unknown if they included the amortized capitol cost of building the dam and generating station), and then used those funds to pay for the water delivery projects. What would the Southwest look like if they had sold the power at cost, and charged the water users the full cost of delivery for BoR water projects? I imagine that there would be a lot less desert farming, and perhaps a lot less population in the Southwest. On the other hand, there might be more industry heavily dependent on cheap power such as aluminum production. Food prices would most likely be higher, and less fresh food would be available in the Southwest.